ICG MEETING ON GUINEA REINFORCES JAN 15 OUAGADOUGOU

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000128 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/W PARIS FOR WALLACE BAIN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV AU ASEC GV SUBJECT: ICG MEETING ON GUINEA REINFORCES JAN 15 OUAGADOUGOU DECLARATION ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The tenth meeting of the International Contact Group (ICG) on Guinea on January 26 brought no surprises as Group members were generally encouraged by recent political developments in Guinea. Discussion focused on reinforcing the January 15 Ouagadougou Declaration through advancing security sector reform, restarting targeted assistance programs (many of which have been suspended),reviewing sanctions, and pressuring Guinean stakeholders to move forward quickly. Although there was a sense of cautious optimism, ICG members remain deeply concerned about the overall security situation and the potential for backsliding. During the course of the meeting, the ICG agreed to officially accept the Kingdom of Morocco into the Group as a member. The next ICG meeting is scheduled for February 22 in Conakry, Guinea. END SUMMARY. -------------- MEETING PARTICIPANTS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The ICG on Guinea convened its tenth session on January 26 in Addis Ababa. AU Commission Chairperson Jean Ping opened the meeting, but left shortly after delivering his opening remarks, leaving ICG co-chairs Dr. Ibrahima Fall and Dr. Mohammed Ibn Chambas to conduct the rest of the meeting. Organizations and countries represented included France, the United Kingdom, Libya, Morocco, China, Japan, Russia, Canada, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, the European Union, the United Nations, the World Bank, the Francophonie, the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (SEN-CAD),and the Organization of Islamic States. Several senior diplomats were present: A/S-equivalent Stephane Gompertz of France, the Burkinabe Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minata Samate-Cessouma, UN Special Representative Said Djinnit of the UN, and the Nigerian Minister of State for African Affairs. AF DAS Fitzgerald represented the United States. Guinea did not send a delegation. The last ICG meeting was held in Ouagadougou on December 13, 2009. -------------- UPDATE FROM THE ICG CO-CHAIRS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Before opening the floor for discussion, Chambas updated the Group on recent developments in Guinea. Chambas and Fall had traveled to Ouagadougou, just after learning of the signing of the January 15 Ouagadougou Declaration, where they were able to meet with junta leaders Captain Dadis Camara and General Sekouba Konate, as well as the CNDD (National Council for Democracy and Development) delegation that had arrived with the intent of escorting Dadis back to Conakry. According to Chambas, Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore's successful mediation convinced the CNDD delegation that General Konate would lead Guinea's transition while Dadis would continue to convalesce in Ouagadougou. ¶4. (SBU) Chambas and Fall accompanied Konate back to Conakry on January 22, along with a Burkinabe General, Ali Traore, who Compaore sent with instructions to remain in Guinea as an observer and advisor throughout the transition process. France later strongly endorsed General Traore's presence, describing him as a high-ranking, experienced military officer. ¶5. (SBU) While in Conakry, Chambas and Fall met with the new Guinean Prime Minister, Jean-Marie Dore. Dore reportedly told Chambas that he would do everything he could to move the transition process forward quickly, but that he faces significant challenges. Dore said that he wants to be prime minister in reality, with real powers, and wants to make sure that he is given the authority he needs to direct the process. According to Chambas, Dore said he is willing to "sacrifice" his candidacy for president, but only if it means that Konate delegates the appropriate powers of state for him to fulfill his mandate. Dore also expressed concerns about the overall security situation, noted that the national coffers are empty, and requested international assistance to alleviate economic and social pressures during the transition period. ¶6. (SBU) With respect to General Konate, Chambas described him as someone who understands and respects that he has a clear mandate. "Konate signed an agreement and he is someone who respects his commitments," Chambas told the ICG. Chambas added that Konate fully intends to keep the CNDD out of the elections. ¶7. (SBU) Chambas and Fall also met with representatives of the Forces Vives, Guinea's loose coalition of opposition forces. ADDIS ABAB 00000128 002 OF 003 Chambas noted that the Forces Vives were surprised by the Ouagadougou Declaration and chagrined that they had been left out of such an important discussion, but were generally happy with the results, admitting that the Declaration was more than they had hoped for. However, the Forces Vives told Chambas that it is important for the government to move quickly to ensure a successful transition. They expressed concern about the National Transition Council, noting that if the body is not given a clear mandate, it could interrupt or delay the electoral process. The Forces Vives also noted ongoing concerns about the security situation, and underscored the need for international assistance for security sector reform. ¶8. (SBU) Chambas said he left Guinea feeling "more assured" that most Guinean stakeholders want the transition process to move forward and are committed to doing so. At the same time, Chambas remains concerned about the overall security situation, potential spoilers, and the underlying fragility of the process. -------------- DISCUSSING THE WAY FORWARD -------------- ¶9. (SBU) During the ensuing discussion, there were several recurrent themes. Nearly all ICG members noted that the transition process seems to be moving forward positively, but emphasized concerns about security and Guinea's continued political instability. The Burkinabe Minister stressed an urgent need for security sector reform, which was echoed by several members of the Group. ¶10. (SBU) DAS Fitzgerald agreed that security sector reform is needed, but that such a project is more of a long-term process. For the near term, he emphasized the importance of bringing in an ECOWAS civil-military observer mission as soon as possible, in order to bolster security in the lead-up to elections. Fitzgerald added that the United States is ready to assist with this initiative as it is essential to have an observer team on the ground. Canada publicly echoed Fitzgerald's comments while the Nigerian Minister of State privately expressed support later during a break. ¶11. (SBU) The Nigerian Minister of State's comments to the Group focused on security concerns as well. He emphasized the importance of continued unity among members of the Forces Vives. He also commended Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore for his willingness to host Dadis. "It is very important that we keep Dadis out of Guinea," he noted, adding that Nigeria had already pledged to provide financial support to the Burkinabe Government to help maintain Dadis in Ouagadougou. ¶12. (SBU) On the topic of sanctions, Chambas noted that there are currently two types of sanctions against Guinea: those that were implemented in response to the December 28, 2008 coup d'etat and those that were put in place in response to Dadis' intended candidacy and the September 28, 2009 massacre. Chambas encouraged members of the Group to review their sanctions and determine whether some could be lifted in recognition of recent positive developments. France commented that some bilateral programs can resume, such as military and economic cooperation, as soon as the transitional government is established, stating that "we will strongly consider restarting some of these programs." The EU cautioned that review of sanctions should not inadvertently condone impunity for serious human rights abuses. ¶13. (SBU) In response to suggestions that the World Bank and the IMF consider resuming programs in Guinea, the WB representative said the Bank wants to play a role to help stabilize the transition process, but needs to hold internal consultations to determine "at what speed we can engage." He noted that it may be difficult to do anything in the near term because Guinea is more than $15 million in arrears on debt payments. ¶14. (SBU) Buy-in to the Ouagadougou Declaration was another issue of concern. Although the Forces Vives seem satisfied with the Declaration, several members of the Group suggested that a more legally binding agreement should be put in place, such as a presidential decree. Chambas agreed that such an agreement would be helpful, but said that it should be put in place quickly and not launch any "re-negotiation." ADDIS ABAB 00000128 003 OF 003 -------------- MOROCCO ACCEPTED AS ICG MEMBER -------------- ¶15. (SBU) During the discussions, the Kingdom of Morocco requested that Morocco participate permanently in the ICG meetings on Guinea. ICG members noted Morocco's recent contributions to advancing the transition process and agreed that Morocco should participate in future ICG meetings. -------------- ICG COMMUNIQUE -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Following the discussions, the Group negotiated the text of the communique, which has not yet been officially released. Key components include: -- expression of appreciation for Burkinabe President Blaise Compaore's successful mediation efforts; -- statement of willingness to support Guinean initiatives to restore constitutional order, state authority, national reconciliation, economic and social development, and security sector reform; -- an invitation to ECOWAS to enter into negotiations with the Guinean authorities regarding the deployment of a joint civil-military observation mission to Guinea as soon as possible; -- an invitation for countries and organizations to review their sanctions against Guinea; -- a re-statement of Item No. 8 of the Ouagadougou Declaration regarding the non-candidacy of members of the CNDD and the transition government in upcoming elections; -- acknowledgement of the UN Commission of Inquiry's investigation; and -- admission of the Kingdom of Morocco as a member of the ICG on Guinea. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶17. (SBU) There were no surprises during the meeting as ICG members were generally encouraged by recent developments and looking to reinforce the Ouagadougou Declaration. At the same time, it was clear that ICG members remain deeply concerned about the security situation and the potential for backsliding. They were focused on needing to work towards security sector reform, restarting targeted assistance, and pressuring Guinean stakeholders to stay the course. Most agreed that time is of the essence. ¶18. (SBU) On the question of an ECOWAS observer mission, discussion during the meeting was limited, but there seemed to be continued support for the initiative, particularly among France, Canada, and Nigeria. DAS Fitzgerald spoke privately to Chambas who said he remains committed to getting an ECOWAS observer mission on the ground as soon as possible, but that the ICG needed to be careful about the wording in the communique so as to avoid exacerbating tensions in Guinea, particularly in the Forest Region. ¶19. (SBU) The next ICG meeting is scheduled for February 22 in Conakry. ¶20. (U) DAS Fitzgerald has not had an opportunity to review this cable.