POLITICAL MANEUVERING CONTINUES; YAR'ADUA REMAINS OUT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000211 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26 TAGS: PGOV OVIP PREL PINR SOCI KPAO NI SUBJECT: POLITICAL MANEUVERING CONTINUES; YAR'ADUA REMAINS OUT OF SIGHT REF: ABUJA 0205 AND PREVIOUS CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) According to multiple contacts, President Yar'Adua was returned to Nigeria to prevent the Federal Executive Council from declaring him permanently incapacitated. One contact, who spoke recently with the President's brother in Saudi Arabia, confirmed that Yar'Adua remains in "bad shape," with his weight down to 40 kilograms. There is speculation in Senate circles that First Lady Turai Yar'Adua may, as a stalling tactic, try to to dissolve the Cabinet and nominate new ministers favorable to her clique. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Jonathan (Tunde) Mark, Special Assistant to (and son of) Senate President David Mark, told PolOff February 25 there is widespread political disquiet in Nigeria. He indicated that many remain worried that First Lady Turai Yar'Adua and her cohorts would attempt to dissolve the Federal Executive Council in Yar'Adua's name, before Cabinet Ministers could vote to establish a medical panel to determine whether Yar'Adua remained capable of resuming his duties as President. With the time required to nominate and re-confirm new ministers (all of whom would presumably support and report to Turai),Tunde remarked that this "small group of people determined to cling to power come hell or high water" could buy at least another eight to ten weeks in power. Mark applauded the February 25 press statement issued by U.S. Assistant Secretary Carson, adding that the international community should maintain pressure to resolve the issue and not let a tiny group around Yar'Adua hold the country hostage for their personal gain. ¶3. (C) Tunde continued that, with the Yar'Adua family back, Acting President Goodluck Jonathan could not exercise power freely or consolidate his position. He said some senators had discussed raising the issue of which person commanded the Presidential Guard to mobilize upon Yar'adua's return and investigate why the Acting President's Office was not aware of the order or consulted. Tunde opined that, beside capacity issues, the Nigerian Security Services suffered from basing their actions on personal loyalties, rather than a sense of the greater public or national good. Without elaborating, he noted that "People find out they're in trouble when the Director of the SSS will no longer take their calls." ¶4. (C) Presidential Advisor Sani Musa told PolCouns February 25 that President Yar'Adua returned from Saudi Arabia the previous day to prevent the February 25 FEC from establishing a medical panel to declare Yar'Adua permanently incapacitated. ¶5. (C) Musa said he had passed through Jeddah on the way back to Nigeria from Dubai the previous week and met with the President's brother Adullahi Yar'Adua, a former lieutenant colonel who had resigned recently from the Nigerian military. Musa said he had wanted to visit the hospitalized President but was not able to do so. According to Musa, Abullahi Yar'Adua claimed that he had seen his brother in the hospital about two weeks ago and described him as in "bad shape," with his weight having dropped to 40 kilograms. ¶6. (C) Musa noted that he had heard only three hours beforehand about Yar'Adua's impending return to Abuja. He noted that, after arrival, the aircraft crew had turned off exterior lights to prevent anyone nearby from taking photographs of President Yar'Adua ABUJA 00000211 002 OF 002 as he moved from the aircraft to a waiting ambulance. Musa said he heard that Yar'Adua had walked the short distance from the aircraft to the ambulance, which had pulled up as close as possible to the aircraft. He denied a press report alleging that Yar'Adua had to be transported on a stretcher. ¶7. (C) Senator Abubakar Umar Gada (PDP-Sokoto East) confirmed to PolOff February 25 that the Senate had voted the previous day to amend sections 145 and 190 of the Nigerian Constitution regarding the transfer of power in the absence of the President or State Governors. The amendment, as passed, states that, in the absence of any written notification or verifiable communication, if the President or a Governor is out of the country for more than two weeks, the Vice President and Deputy Governor, respectively, will automatically assume the duties of Acting President and Acting Governor. According to Gada, the measure passed easily with 80 percent support in the Senate, including 17 absences, four no votes, and one abstention among the 109 senators. Gada commented that the action was taken "to prevent in the future the mess we currently find ourselves in." (N.B.: The amendment must also gain approval by a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives and by two-thirds of the state Houses of Assembly. END NOTE.) -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Overall de-facto control of the government remains uncertain, as those supporting the recently-returned President or the recently-designated Acting President struggle behind-the-scenes for advantage. Mission will continue to monitor the uncertain situation and counsel adherence to the rule of law and the Constitution. END COMMENT. SANDERS