POLITICAL MANEUVERING CONTINUES; YAR'ADUA REMAINS OUT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000211

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV OVIP PREL PINR SOCI KPAO NI
SUBJECT: POLITICAL MANEUVERING CONTINUES; YAR'ADUA REMAINS OUT OF
SIGHT

REF: ABUJA 0205 AND PREVIOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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1. (C) According to multiple contacts, President Yar'Adua was
returned to Nigeria to prevent the Federal Executive Council from
declaring him permanently incapacitated. One contact, who spoke
recently with the President's brother in Saudi Arabia, confirmed
that Yar'Adua remains in "bad shape," with his weight down to 40
kilograms. There is speculation in Senate circles that First Lady
Turai Yar'Adua may, as a stalling tactic, try to to dissolve the
Cabinet and nominate new ministers favorable to her clique. END
SUMMARY.




2. (C) Jonathan (Tunde) Mark, Special Assistant to (and son of)
Senate President David Mark, told PolOff February 25 there is
widespread political disquiet in Nigeria. He indicated that many
remain worried that First Lady Turai Yar'Adua and her cohorts would
attempt to dissolve the Federal Executive Council in Yar'Adua's
name, before Cabinet Ministers could vote to establish a medical
panel to determine whether Yar'Adua remained capable of resuming
his duties as President. With the time required to nominate and
re-confirm new ministers (all of whom would presumably support and
report to Turai),Tunde remarked that this "small group of people
determined to cling to power come hell or high water" could buy at
least another eight to ten weeks in power. Mark applauded the
February 25 press statement issued by U.S. Assistant Secretary
Carson, adding that the international community should maintain
pressure to resolve the issue and not let a tiny group around
Yar'Adua hold the country hostage for their personal gain.




3. (C) Tunde continued that, with the Yar'Adua family back, Acting
President Goodluck Jonathan could not exercise power freely or
consolidate his position. He said some senators had discussed
raising the issue of which person commanded the Presidential Guard
to mobilize upon Yar'adua's return and investigate why the Acting
President's Office was not aware of the order or consulted. Tunde
opined that, beside capacity issues, the Nigerian Security Services
suffered from basing their actions on personal loyalties, rather
than a sense of the greater public or national good. Without
elaborating, he noted that "People find out they're in trouble when
the Director of the SSS will no longer take their calls."




4. (C) Presidential Advisor Sani Musa told PolCouns February 25
that President Yar'Adua returned from Saudi Arabia the previous day
to prevent the February 25 FEC from establishing a medical panel to
declare Yar'Adua permanently incapacitated.




5. (C) Musa said he had passed through Jeddah on the way back to
Nigeria from Dubai the previous week and met with the President's
brother Adullahi Yar'Adua, a former lieutenant colonel who had
resigned recently from the Nigerian military. Musa said he had
wanted to visit the hospitalized President but was not able to do
so. According to Musa, Abullahi Yar'Adua claimed that he had seen
his brother in the hospital about two weeks ago and described him
as in "bad shape," with his weight having dropped to 40 kilograms.




6. (C) Musa noted that he had heard only three hours beforehand
about Yar'Adua's impending return to Abuja. He noted that, after
arrival, the aircraft crew had turned off exterior lights to
prevent anyone nearby from taking photographs of President Yar'Adua

ABUJA 00000211 002 OF 002


as he moved from the aircraft to a waiting ambulance. Musa said he
heard that Yar'Adua had walked the short distance from the aircraft
to the ambulance, which had pulled up as close as possible to the
aircraft. He denied a press report alleging that Yar'Adua had to
be transported on a stretcher.




7. (C) Senator Abubakar Umar Gada (PDP-Sokoto East) confirmed to
PolOff February 25 that the Senate had voted the previous day to
amend sections 145 and 190 of the Nigerian Constitution regarding
the transfer of power in the absence of the President or State
Governors. The amendment, as passed, states that, in the absence
of any written notification or verifiable communication, if the
President or a Governor is out of the country for more than two
weeks, the Vice President and Deputy Governor, respectively, will
automatically assume the duties of Acting President and Acting
Governor. According to Gada, the measure passed easily with 80
percent support in the Senate, including 17 absences, four no
votes, and one abstention among the 109 senators. Gada commented
that the action was taken "to prevent in the future the mess we
currently find ourselves in." (N.B.: The amendment must also gain
approval by a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives
and by two-thirds of the state Houses of Assembly. END NOTE.)



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COMMENT

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8. (C) Overall de-facto control of the government remains
uncertain, as those supporting the recently-returned President or
the recently-designated Acting President struggle behind-the-scenes
for advantage. Mission will continue to monitor the uncertain
situation and counsel adherence to the rule of law and the
Constitution. END COMMENT.
SANDERS