ANAMBRA IMPRESSIONS -- PROGRESS, BUT MUCH WORK TO DO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000171

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI KCRM KDEM NI
SUBJECT: ANAMBRA IMPRESSIONS -- PROGRESS, BUT MUCH WORK TO DO

REF: ABUJA 0149 AND PREVIOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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1. (C) Many observers had expected a messy, even violent, vote
going into the February 6 gubernatorial election in Anambra State.
That the worst of Nigerian elections past did not materialize this
time may be the most encouraging outcome of this vote. The
peaceful, largely violence-free, process proved largely credible,
albeit administratively flawed. The Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) poorly managed key elements of the elections,
notably timely delivery of voting materials and maintenance of
accurate voter registration lists. Voter apathy and
disenfranchisement also overshadowed Anambra's election results,
widely hyped as a "harbinger" for 2011. Despite flaws in the
conduct of the election, however, most observers viewed the results
as reflecting the will of voters. INEC's flaws affected the
prospects of all candidates and did not seem to favor any
individual contender. INEC will need to improve its capabilities
dramatically when Nigeria conducts elections in 35 additional
states in 2011. END SUMMARY.



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POSITIVE, PEACEFUL PROCESS

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2. (SBU) Incumbent Governor Peter Obi handily won re-election in
the widely-anticipated gubernatorial election in Anambra State on
February 6 (reftel). Obi (All Progressive Grand Alliance, AGPA)
received 97,843 votes -- well ahead of his nearest rivals Chris
Ngige (Action Congress, AC) with 60,240 votes and Chukwuma Soludo
(People's Democratic Party, PDP) with 59,355 votes. Obi not only
garnered the most votes among all 25 contenders but at least 25
percent of the votes cast in at least two-thirds of Anambra's 21
Local Government Areas (LGAs) (he actually won 18),as required by
election laws to forestall a run-off election.




3. (C) Obi and his record in office proved popular, at least among
those who voted, and the powers of incumbency certainly helped him.
U.S. Mission Nigeria election observers noted that most obvious
roadside billboards in and around the major population centers of
the capital Awka and market town Onitsha featured Obi. His two
main, well-funded rivals Ngige and Soludo of the more prominent
(nationally) AC and ruling PDP may have cancelled out each other's
efforts. When INEC announced election results at its Awka
headquarters on February 7, the bystanders greeted the news with
applause, calmness, and acceptance.




4. (C) Those who voted, and many others who tried, behaved
commendably. The security situation over the February 5 to 8
period in Anambra remained peaceful, a noteworthy feat in a state
known for roughness around elections. Authorities deployed over
23,000 Nigeria Police Force (NPF) personnel from around the nation
to the state with a "thick as fleas" presence, which helped
maintain calm and order.



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DELAYS AND SETBACKS

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ABUJA 00000171 002 OF 003



5. (C) Despite assurances from INEC officials that they came
prepared for the election, they badly bungled key aspects of the
actual execution, with delays in delivery of voting materials and
ballots to 326 wards and 4,627 polling stations across the state
and distribution of inaccurate voter registration lists that left
many unable to vote. INEC deserves nearly all the blame for late
deployment and the ensuing chaos around the polls on Election Day,
although some fault the police for not stepping up and providing an
earlier presence near the polling stations. INEC officials claimed
to election observers in the field that they did not want to leave
ballots and election paraphernalia at polls unprotected. The
wrangling continued and voting did not start in earnest until late
morning or early afternoon, well after the original 0800 starting
time.




6. (C) The single largest shortcoming involved the highly
inaccurate voter registration lists. At many polling stations
(including those in Onitsha, Awka, and in rural villages visited by
U.S. observers),the lists proved inaccurate or badly out-of-date.
People lined up, presented their voter registration cards, and
showed up at their designated stations, only to be told that the
list did not contain their names. This created a standoff for a
while, but ultimately some INEC poll workers (with political party
agents and election observers watching),made a judgment call to
allow people in line to vote on a provisional basis, even if their
name did not appear on the register. This defused tensions,
although some polling stations lacked sufficient ballots for those
in line or even any voting materials at all (such as one rowdy
scene observed in Awka South). These would-be voters felt
"disenfranchised" and promised to file protests. One domestic
observer called INEC's poor delivery and administration of voting
materials and lists "disgraceful."




7. (C) Even with all these administrative "hiccups" (per INEC's
Anambra Commissioner),voting proceeded peacefully in most places
once it started. Patient people already on queue were allowed to
vote. Many stayed until later in the day to watch the counting, to
ensure it went smoothly and ballot boxes would not be pilfered.
They appreciated the presence of observers, and often smiled when
the U.S. team randomly appeared at their remote site. Polling
stations reported their results throughout Saturday night and
Sunday morning up the chain to wards and LGA headquarters. By 0900
on Sunday, the last LGA read its results at INEC "Election
Central." With the final count in, INEC declared Peter Obi of AGPA
winner without need of a run-off.



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LOOKING TO 2011

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8. (C) In the end, voter turnout came in quite low (at around 16
percent),but people who did show up came determined to make
democracy and elections work in Nigeria. INEC did not make the
task for them any easier, as they did not mark polling stations
clearly (at least for observers). Yet this should not have been a
problem for Anambrans, as polling stations were supposed to be
within walking distance of home and well-known to locals. A ban on
driving across the state (except for official vehicles) should not
have deterred people coming out to vote. Some may have been
intimidated by the heavy NPF presence, fearing that the police
might resort to intimidation or violent tactics if things went
badly. These fears were largely unjustified, and the NPF was
well-behaved. U.S. observers heard of but did not witness a few
instances of poll-related violence, thuggery, and vote buying.



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ABUJA 00000171 003 OF 003


COMMENT

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9. (C) Was Anambra really the "harbinger" for 2011 as many
anticipated? The contest turned out better than past ones in the
state, and if such tranquility could carry over into 2011, then
Anambra may have served as a useful rehearsal for the national
vote. The more valuable lesson from Anambra, however, is that it
exposed INEC's lack of efficiency and competence in key areas.
INEC has considerable work to do, especially in updating voter
registration lists, arranging for the prompt delivery of materials,
and enhancing voter education to overcome voter apathy and low
turnouts.




10. (U) ConGen Lagos prepared and coordinated this telegram with
Embassy Abuja, which transmitted this telegram on behalf of ConGen
Lagos.
SANDERS