GOODLUCK JONATHAN BECOMES ACTING PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 000167

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI KDEM KPAO NI
SUBJECT: GOODLUCK JONATHAN BECOMES ACTING PRESIDENT

REF: ABUJA 0155 AND PREVIOUS

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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1. (C) The Nigerian Senate and House of Representatives approved
resolutions February 9 designating Vice President Goodluck Jonathan
as Acting President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.
Jonathan announced his acceptance of the designation during a brief
televised address to the nation. Senate President David Mark noted
that legislators took the action under the "doctrine of necessity"
to respond to a situation "not fully contemplated by the
Constitution." The Federal Executive Council (FEC) ratified the
non-binding resolutions February 10. In one of his first official
actions as Acting President, Jonathan switched the portfolios of
three Cabinet Ministers, relegating controversial Attorney General
Michael Aondoakaa to a less powerful post. Most Nigerians,
including those formerly viewed as Yar'Adua "loyalists," have
accepted the designation of Jonathan as Acting President as a
necessary, albeit imperfect, political decision, while a few
critics have questioned its constitutionality. END SUMMARY.



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NATIONAL ASSEMBLY APPROVES RESOLUTIONS

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2. (SBU) On February 9, the Senate and the House of Representatives
approved resolutions designating Vice President Jonathan as Acting
President and Commander-in-Chief. According to the resolutions,
Jonathan will retain this position until ailing President Yar'Adua,
whose absence reached 78 days on that date, returns to Nigeria and
communicates in writing that he is capable of resuming presidential
powers. Senate President David Mark told the media that
legislators took the action under the "doctrine of necessity" to
respond to a situation "not contemplated" by the Constitution.
Some Senators argued that the President had communicated his
"vacation" and incapacity via his alleged BBC radio interview in
which he indicated that he remained in Saudi Arabia undergoing
medical treatment. While at least one Senator objected that such
verbal remarks did not satisfy the Constitutional requirement for a
signed "written communication," others insisted that a printed
online transcript of his alleged remarks sufficed.



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JONATHAN ADDRESSES THE NATION

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3. (SBU) Jonathan announced his acceptance of his Acting President
designation during a brief televised address on the evening of
February 9. He expressed hope for the continued recovery of
President Yar'Adua and indicated that he was "deeply humbled and
honored by this great call to duty."



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GOVERNORS EXPRESS SUPPORT

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4. (C) The Governors' Forum endorsed the National Assembly's
action, noting that they had obtained the go-ahead of the leaders
of national assemblies in all 36 states for such action.
Separately, Plateau State Governor David Jonah Jang told PolCouns
February 10 that the governors would have pressed National Assembly
members to consider and approve such resolutions if they had not
acted as soon as they did. He predicted that the National Assembly
and state legislatures would soon approve a constitutional
amendment stipulating that the Vice President and Deputy Governors,
respectively, assume their boss's position as Acting President or
Acting Governor automatically when such absences exceed 30 days.
(COMMENT: Nigeria's 1999 Constitution has never undergone
amendment, because of the nearly impossible requirement that
two-thirds of the state legislatures ratify the amendment. END
COMMENT.)



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FEC RATIFIES DESIGNATION

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5. (C) The Federal Executive Council (FEC) accepted the National
Assembly's action during a February 10 meeting. At the start of
the meeting, Jonathan sat in the elevated President's chair,
instead of his Vice Presidential chair, for the first time. While
the FEC had originally scheduled a discussion of the memorandum
that Information Minster Dora Akunyili had circulated (and
withdrawn) the previous week recommending that Yar'Adua submit a
hand over letter, Akunyili announced after the meeting that the
National Assembly's actions had obviated the need for discussion of
her document.



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SUPPORT FOR DECISION -- EVEN FROM SOME YAR'ADUA LOYALISTS

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6. (C) House of Representatives Narcotics and Financial Crimes
Committee Chairperson Rabe Nasir told PolOff February 12 that the
National Assembly did what it could to break through the "political
quagmire." While Nasir mentioned that some House members objected
to mentioning the term "Acting President" on constitutional
grounds, members of the Katsina delegation "did not have any
objections whatsoever" to the resolution. In no way, he added, did
they consider the resolution disloyal to native son Yar'Adua.
Nasir observed that, after its passage, a delegation of governors,
including Katsina Governor Ibrahim Shema (Yar'adua's handpicked
successor as governor),visited the Assembly to congratulate
members on the resolution's approval.




7. (C) Kwara Senator Gbemisola R. Saraki, whose brother Kwara
Governor Bukola Saraki chairs the Governors' Forum and whose family
could be described as Yar'Adua "loyalists of convenience," admitted
that the resolution was unconstitutional. Saraki openly wondered
"What alternative did we have?" She noted that the FEC members did
not do anything. Insisting that the resolution "was not meant to
be disloyal," she averred that the National Assembly had no choice
after Yar'Adua's nearly 80-day absence. She wondered whether
anyone could imagine the U.S. First Lady "blocking the door to her
husband's room and not letting any government officials in for that
long."

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8. (C) Senator Kanti Bello, a close Yar'Adua ally also from Katsina
State, remarked to Political Specialist February 12 that, although
he was close to Yar'Adua, the leadership crisis arising from his
illness had "created a vacuum that must be addressed in a legal,
fair, and patriotic manner." He described the resolution
empowering Jonathan as Acting President as the best way "to
confront the leadership crisis threatening to destabilize Nigeria."



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CABINET SHUFFLE

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9. (SBU) Towards the end of the February 10 FEC meeting, Akunyili
announced Jonathan's decision to shuffle the portfolios of the
Attorney General, Labor Minister, and Special Duties Minister, with
immediate effect, relegating controversial Attorney General
Aondoakaa to the obscure post of Special Duties Minister. He
replaced Aondoakaa with Labor Minister Adetokunbo Kayode, while
former Special Duties Minister Ibrahim Musa Kazaure became Labor
Minister. Aondoakaa publicly accepted his reassignment, claiming
that Jonathan and he had amicably discussed the change beforehand.
At least one press report, however, described such remarks as spin,
insisting that the decision had come as a shock to Aondoakaa and
other ministers during the meeting.



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COMMENT

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10. (C) Jonathan's belated elevation to Acting President has
defused but not resolved the crisis over Yar'Adua's absence. The
next few months will be critical. Jonathan has probably a short
window during to demonstrate leadership and competence to build up
his credibility, his position within his own party, and his
prospects for 2011 should he, as many expect, decide to contest for
a new term. He also needs a good start to help him withstand the
likely court challenges, once his political honeymoon fades,
arguing that his "acting" status or some particular action by
Jonathan is unconstitutional. For that reason, it is not academic
if an unambiguous medical leave statement is subsequently obtained
from Yar'Adua. Ultimately, absent Yar'Adua's death, the FEC could
also proceed with appointing the medical panel to document
Yar'Adua's incapacity or the National Assembly could even proceed
with impeachment.




11. (C) Jonathan has the advantage of starting off with low
expectations and a broad national appreciation for his role in
moving the country forward. Removing the widely disdained Attorney
General sent a strong, positive signal, while fueling rumors about
the pending sacking of other Yar'Adua loyalists such as Federal
Capital Territory Minister Muhammed Adamu Aliero. Observers will
also be watching closely for signs that Jonathan's mentor, former
President Olusegun Obasanjo, is exercising significant influence.
END COMMENT.
SANDERS