INCUMBENT WINS CREDIBLE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION IN ANAMBRA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000149 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL SOCI KDEM KPAO NI SUBJECT: INCUMBENT WINS CREDIBLE GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION IN ANAMBRA REF: ABUJA 0116; LAGOS 0035 CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Anambra State Governor Peter Obi comfortably won re-election February 6 against a competitive field where political parties, security forces, and, to a lesser extent, the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) all performed credibly. U.S. Mission observers note reports of isolated irregularities, which they attribute to INEC capacity problems, not maliciousness. INEC struggled with flawed voter lists and delivery of electoral materials to polling stations on time. Legal challenges may be in the works but are unlikely to prevail, given the clear-cut and widely-accepted outcome. The election validated the judgment and recommendations of the U.S.-UK-funded election assessment team (ref a). END SUMMARY. -------------- CLEAR, CREDIBLE RESULTS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Governor Peter Obi of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) won the February 6 gubernatorial election in Anambra State with 97,843 votes, according to results released early February 7 by INEC. Finishing well behind him were former Anambra Governor Chris Ngige and the candidate of the nationally dominant People's Democratic Party (PDP, Chukwuma Soludo. Soludo, while complaining of INEC's conduct and noting the possibility of a court appeal, nevertheless, congratulated Obi on his victory, promising "You will have my support" in serving the state. ¶3. (C) The finish tracked with the expectations of many observers. Soludo was handicapped, as PDP officials acknowledged publicly February 7, by internal disputes over the party's nomination process (Ref B),while Obi benefitted from generally positive reviews from major constituency groups and his status as the incumbent, which in Nigeria means the use of state resources to support his campaign. -------------- SECURITY PRESENCE DETERS VIOLENCE -------------- ¶4. (C) More than 23,000 police and security personnel succeeded in preventing any major incidents of violence or systematic irregularities. U.S. Mission observers heard but could not confirm reports of random bursts of gunfire and stolen ballot boxes. -------------- INEC'S MAJOR AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT -------------- ABUJA 00000149 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) The election, however, was marred by INEC's acute organizational and managerial deficits. Polling stations in some areas opened four hours late because of delayed deliveries of electoral materials, and U.S. Mission observers saw instances where there were fewer ballots on hand than registered voters. ¶6. (C) The biggest problem was with voter registration anomalies across the state, and voter lists that did not match voter cards. At one station visited by U.S. Mission observers, only three of 65 voters were on the list, and local residents alleged that many other names on the list were unknown to them. Local media reported that some prominent people were not on the lists, while Anambra House of Assembly Speaker Anayo Nnaeme was quoted as complaining that INEC had only 1,700 names on its lists for his ward, although roughly 4,000 people had registered. ¶7. (U) According to INEC, out of 284,547 votes cast, 16,685 were invalid. The total number of registered voters in Anamabra was 1,844,815, which meant that turnout was only 15 to 16 percent. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Given the massive violence and fraud that devastated the last Anambra gubernatorial election in 2006, and the highly flawed gubernatorial election last year in Ekiti state, the generally credible conduct and outcome of the February 6 contest has come as a relief to many Nigerians. Fears of widespread violence, intimidation , and that INEC might try to rig the process in favor of the PDP candidate or of Andy Uba of the Labor Party failed to materialize. Having at least three serious and well-funded candidates in the field helped keep the players relatively honest, as did the realization -- noted many times to U.S. Mission observers and others -- that Nigeria and the world were watching the process closely. In the Nigerian context, poorly trained INEC staff, late delivery of electoral materials, and flawed voter rolls are par for the course, and do not make the difference between rigged and credible results. INEC's obvious areas for improvement track closely with the judgments and recommendations of the U.S.-UK-funded election assessment team (ref a). INEC's obvious challenges in conducting a state election with such low turnout augur badly for its ability to handle national elections. If court cases are filed against the February 6 outcome, a default response for Nigerian election losers, we do not expect the courts to reverse what Nigerians are widely hailing as a clear-cut and credible result. END COMMENT. ¶9. (U) Embassy Abuja and ConGen Lagos collaborated on this telegram. SANDERS