POLITICAL FOCUS ON YAR'ADUA AND ANAMBRA ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000129

SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/W, AF/RSA, AF/PDPA, DRL, INR/AA
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/26
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI KPAO NI
SUBJECT: POLITICAL FOCUS ON YAR'ADUA AND ANAMBRA ELECTION

CLASSIFIED BY: James P. McAnulty, Political Counselor, U.S. Embassy
Abuja, Political Section; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)

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SUMMARY

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1. (C) The Arewa Consultative Forum has joined calls for President
Yar'Adua to hand over power to Vice President Jonathan. Senate
leaders publicly denied that they intend to impeach Yar'Adua, but
People's Democratic Party (PDP) legislators have privately told us
that they view Yar'Adua's situation as grim. Leaders of a planned
"Mega" Party will meet in Abuja this week to discuss next steps and
assure Northerners that they need not fear a Jonathan presidency.
The reported redeployment of troops from the Niger Delta is
probably a normal rotation, but we continue to watch for signs of
troop movements surrounding Abuja. In Anambra, the PDP has accused
the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of supporting
another party's candidate. END SUMMARY.




2. (SBU) On January 31, the influential Arewa Consultative Forum
(ACF),a prominent grouping of northern political and civil society
leaders, joined calls for President Yar'Adua to hand over power to
his deputy. ACF members accused the Federal Executive Council
(FEC) of lying to the public when it decreed last week that
President Yar'Adua remained fit to govern.




3. (C) Faced with a dearth of hard news, weekend press coverage
highlighted denials from the Senate spokesman that the Senate was
contemplating Yar'Adua's impeachment. A northern senator and two
House members told Political Specialist February 1 that they had no
new information about Yar'Adua's condition. The Senator, a member
of the President's ruling PDP, said the inability of Executive
Branch officials to provide definitive information pushed the upper
chamber to pass a resolution last week urging the President to send
a letter of medical vacation to the legislature. He added that
officials have contradicted themselves so often on Yar'Adua that
Nigerians no longer believed them. "No matter how these few
officials want to manipulate the situation, the truth will
eventually come out." Another PDP senator told PolMil Specialist
February 1 that "there was no turning back" by him and the other
senators, and their push to ensure respect for the Constitution.





4. (C) The two House members, part of a six-person team slated to
visit Jeddah to check on the President's health, told Political
Specialist February 1 that they had sent their passports to the
Saudi Embassy for visas but had no idea if or when they would
travel. One charged that the whole saga remained shrouded "in
mystery and deliberate misinformation." The second House member
described information on Yar'Adua as "poorly managed," which
unnecessarily "overheated the polity."




5. (C) Regarding press reports of troop movements out of the Niger
Delta, the Embassy Defense Attache Office assesses that the
movements are likely part of a normal rotation. More significant
would be signs of movements out of barracks surrounding Abuja,
particularly the Brigade of Guards. (Note: We continue to watch
this situation closely. END NOTE.)




6. (C) On February 1, former presidential candidate Pat Utomi told
Ambassador in Lagos that he and other leaders of a planned "Mega"
Party would meet in Abuja February 3 to discuss next steps.
According to Utomi, there is sentiment to send a message to the
Northern-dominated military assuring it that a President Jonathan
would not swap out the military leadership with Southerners as the

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Northerners have allegedly done at the colonel rank and above with
Southerners. He could not rule out a military coup down the road
if there was further "political erosion," but he did not see that
as a near-term prospect.




7. (C) Meanwhile, with just five days to go to the Anambra
gubernatorial poll, Nigerian political attention is shifting South.
Ironically, the Southeast leader of the PDP has accused INEC
Chairperson Maurice Iwu of bias in favor of Andy Uba, a former PDP
leader running this time as the candidate of the rival Labor Party.
(NOTE: The irony stems from Iwu's alleged collusion with the PDP
in the 2007 elections, although some allege that Uba influenced
then President Obasanjo's selection of Iwu as INEC Chairperson.
END NOTE.) According to press reports, over 23,000 Nigerian Police
officers have mobilized for the February 6 election, and INEC has
drafted 4,000 National Youth Service Corps members to support
14,300 INEC staff in the conduct of the election.
SANDERS