GBAGBO EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000065

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/12
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL IV
SUBJECT: GBAGBO EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE GOVERNMENT

CLASSIFIED BY: Tanya Salseth, Political Officer, Department of State,
Embassy Abidjan; REASON: 1.4(B),(D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a meeting with the international
community on February 12, SRSG Choi confirmed that President Gbagbo
intends to announce "institutional changes" within the government
in the context of the current political impasse. Although Choi did
not have further details, it is widely believed that President
Gbagbo will announce that he is dissolving the current government.
The news seems to have circulated quickly among the international
community in Abidjan, but has not yet reached the Ivoirian
population. The potential impact is unknown, as it is still
unclear what measures the government intends to take. END SUMMARY




2. (SBU) On February 12, SRSG Choi called a meeting with all
resident Ambassadors in Cote d'Ivoire to discuss current electoral
and political developments. Charge and Poloff were in attendance.
Choi confirmed that President Gbagbo would announce "institutional
changes" within the government in a national television broadcast
at 8pm that same evening. He said he did not know what measures
the government intends to take, but was extremely concerned that
the potential "institutional changes" could undo all of the work
that has been achieved since the Ouagadougou Political Accord was
signed in 2007.




3. (C) Choi said that although UNOCI had been under intense
pressure to arbitrate the "Mambe affair," he had refused, stating
that arbitration is solely the responsibility of the Facilitator's
Office. In that role, President Blaise Compaore met with all of
the key parties in Ouagadougou on February 11 in an attempt to find
a solution to the current impasse. Independent Electoral
Commission (CEI) President Robert Mambe attended the meeting, as
well as FPI President Affi N'Guessan, RHDP coalition chairman
Alphonse Dje Dje Mady, and the RDR Director for Political Affairs
Amadou Soumahoro. Choi said that during this meeting, Mambe
categorically refused to accept a proposal whereby he would resign
of his own accord. This compromise would have ensured that all
charges filed against him by the public prosecutor's office would
be dropped. [Note: the investigation ordered by the Ministry of
Interior found Mambe guilty of all charges of tampering with the
list; however, there is disagreement in judicial circles as to
whether he is protected by immunity in his position as CEI
President . End Note]




4. (C) Choi initially speculated that the president's
upcoming announcement was a reaction to Mambe's refusal to resign;
however, when pressed on this point by the European Commission
representative, he backed down, insisting that he did not know if
the two events were related. In closing, he urged the
international community to speak with one voice on the issue,
particularly concerning the provisional electoral list. This list
must be upheld, Choi insisted, as any questioning of what has been
decided could lead to an invalidation of all the processes which
have led up to it, including the audiences foraines (mobile courts)
process, and the identification and voter registration process. He
was extremely concerned that all of the work the international
community has done to support the process over the last three years
could be threatened by these latest developments.




5. (C) COMMENT: As President Gbagbo has not yet specified
what changes he intends to make within the government, it is too
early to speculate what kind of reaction this might provoke. Much
depends on exactly what changes he intends to make and how the
message is communicated to the public, though it is likely that
whatever changes are made, the opposition will interpret such
drastic measures as a power grab. So far, it seems that only the
international community is aware of the developments (most informed
by the French Embassy). Post will continue to closely monitor
developments. END COMMENT
STANLEY