OPPOSITION YOUTH TO HOLD MASS DEMONSTRATION ON JAN 26

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000037 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/01/25 TAGS: PGOV SOCI IV SUBJECT: OPPOSITION YOUTH TO HOLD MASS DEMONSTRATION ON JAN 26 REF: 09 ABIDJAN 37 CLASSIFIED BY: Tanya Salseth, Political Officer, Department of State, Embassy Abidjan; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Political youth leaders from the RHDP opposition coalition have called for a mass demonstration on January 26. It will be the opposition's first major demonstration since March 2004. They plan to march on the state-owned television network in Abidjan and hold a sit-in to denounce the station's "biased coverage" in favor of the president's party. Although Minister of Interior and FPI stalwart Desire Tagro officially authorized the demonstration to take place, the FPI continues to suggest that opposition protestors may "provoke" the police into using violence in order to smear the president's party before elections. Over the weekend, the government took measures to minimize the possibility of violence, but it will be difficult to control the outcome, particularly if the demonstration attracts large numbers of youth bent on venting their frustrations. END SUMMARY OPPOSITION CITES BIASED COVERAGE -------------- -- ¶2. (SBU) Youth leaders from the RHDP, an opposition coalition made up of the PDCI, RDR, MFA, PIT, and UDPCI political parties, met January 21 to confirm their intention to hold a peaceful protest against the state-owned television network RTI (Ivoirian Radio and Television) on January 26. PDCI and RDR youth leaders believe the RTI is heavily biased in favor of the president's party and cited the extensive coverage of the activities of FPI youth campaign director and Jeunes Patriots leader Charles Ble Goude as a prime example of this phenomenon. They told Poloff on January 21 that in mid 2009, the opposition formally complained to Cote d'Ivoire's media regulatory body, the CNCA, requesting that RTI provide more balanced coverage. The CNCA did not respond. In early January 2010, after RTI repeatedly aired footage of Ble Goude calling for the resignation of Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) President Robert Mambe, incensed opposition youth leaders decided that a demonstration was "the only way to get RTI to listen." RDR youth leader Karamoko Yayoro estimates that around 10,000 people will participate in the protest. RULING PARTY EVOKES GUINEA COMPARISONS, SAYS FRANCE INVOLVED -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) FPI youth leader Navigue Konate told Poloff on January 21 that the opposition's claims of RTI's biased coverage are just excuses to provoke the security forces into using violence in order to discredit Gbagbo on the eve of elections. Calling the protestors "extremists with guns and machetes," Konate said the opposition hopes to repeat what happened in Guinea in September ¶2009. "Dadis Camara was innocent," Konate said, "and now the opposition wants to repeat this formula so President Ggabgo is blamed." At a January 23 youth rally, Ble Goude also compared the situation to that of Guinea, casting France as the mastermind behind the planned demonstration in order to oust Gbagbo. However, Ble Goude also asked his supporters to avoid confrontations with the RHDP youth, calling on them to stay off the streets tomorrow and let the RHDP conduct its march. POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE? -------------- ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Despite the FPI's rhetoric, developments over the weekend indicate that the demonstration may take place peacefully. As noted above, Ble Goude told his followers at the January 23 rally to avoid clashing with opposition youth. He also called off a demonstration planned for this same week, in which FPI militants planned to march on the CEI to call for President Mambe's resignation. Even before Ble Goude's announcement, RDR and PDCI reps had told Poloff on January 21 that they did not fear a clash with the Jeunes Patriots or FESCI (the militant student organization affiliated with the FPI). If any violence did take place, the RDR rep believed it would be between ABIDJAN 00000037 002 OF 002 opposition youth and government security forces. Second, the FPI-controlled Ministry of Interior granted an authorization for the protest, defusing some of the opposition's anger over speculation that the authorization would be denied. The opposition also met with Ministry of Interior representatives on January 23. Papers reported that, as a result of that meeting, police agreed to "escort" the march, but not interfere with it. The Embassy is issuing a warden message to American citizens and will continue to closely follow developments. NESBITT