CONTINUING CROATIAN CONCERNS ABOUT SLOVENIA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000077

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL NATO HR
SUBJECT: CONTINUING CROATIAN CONCERNS ABOUT SLOVENIA'S
RATIFICATION OF NATO PROTOCOLS

Classified By: Ambassador Robert A. Bradtke for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)



1. (C) In a February 12 phone conversation with the
Ambassador, Croatian Ministry of Foreign Affairs State
Secretary Bozinovic expressed the continuing concern of
senior Croatian officials about Slovene ratification of the
NATO accession protocol for Croatia. Noting that he was
calling at the request of Minister Jandrokovic, Bozinovic
drew the Ambassador's attention to a statement by Slovene
opposition leader Janez Jansa, reported in the Croatian daily
Novi List. Reportedly Jansa, commenting on the possible
referendum on the Croatian protocol, stated that a year's
delay in Croatian membership "would not have dramatic
consequences for NATO." Further, Jansa is quoted as saying
that: "The EU did not fall apart when the Irish voted against
the Lisbon Treaty, and neither will NATO because of a Slovene
referendum, just as nothing special happened when Greece
stopped Macedonia last year."


2. (C) Bozinovic went on to express concern that, despite
the favorable vote in the Slovene parliament last week,
delaying actions by the Slovene State Council or the
initiation of a referendum campaign could push Slovene
ratification past the deadline of the April 3-4 NATO Summit.
Bozinovic asked for continuing U.S. engagement with Slovenia
to avoid actions that would cause such a delay and prevent
Croatia from being a full member of NATO at the Summit. The
Ambassador assured Bozinovic that this issue was being
followed closely by Embassy Ljubljana and Washington, and the
U.S. would do what it could to be helpful.


3. (C) Comment. As we have reported previously, the
anxiety level here is very high, and has not been
significantly reduced by the Slovene vote last week. While
agreeing that neither Prime Minister Pahor nor Jansa want a
referendum, the Croatians are suspicious that both Pahor and
Jansa would be happy to see the process of considering a
referendum delay ratification beyond the April Summit,
thereby depriving the Croatians of a seat at the table as a
full member. Successful completion of the NATO ratification
process and full membership at the April Summit has taken on
even greater importance here as the EU accession process has
stalled and the government deals with a deteriorating
economic situation. Viewing the U.S. as the principal
advocates for enlargement and the earliest proponent of NATO
membership for Croatia, the Croatians are clearly looking to
us to help.

BRADTKE