SERBIAN AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES TURNING A NEW PAGE IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000728 SIPDIS PLEASE PASS TO EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/10/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL HR SR SUBJECT: SERBIAN AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES TURNING A NEW PAGE IN RELATIONS BETWEEN SERBIA AND CROATIA Classified By: Peter D'Amico, Pol Officer, for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The Ambassador met on December 10 with new Serbian Ambassador to Croatia Stanimir Vukicevic. Vukicevic stressed that relations between Serbia and Croatia were the "keystone" for stability in the region. More work needed to be done to improve them, however, and to shift the focus to the future rather than on past grievances. Vukicevic noted that the principle challenges to improved relations included the disagreements regarding refugees, Croatia's recognition of Kosovo's independence, and the Croatian genocide case against Serbia at the ICJ (where Serbia has announced a counter-suit). The relationship between Croatia and Serbia is most likely to improve through a focus on issues where both sides can realistically come to an agreement. PM Kosor's office told us on December 14 that she is endeavoring to open a new channel of communication with Belgrade. End Summary. ¶2. (C) ) With respect to the refugee issue, Vukicevic expressed the hope that both sides could compromise in order to find more common ground, such as on the need to reach joint agreement on the exact number of people in Serbia who qualified for refugee status. He noted that on December 7 and 8 an expert level meeting in Belgrade on the refugee issue took place. (Note: Septel will provide the Croatian reaction to these expert level meetings on refugees. End Note.) The Ambassador observed that the larger question on refugee issues was how to successfully resolve the problem to the satisfaction of both sides. Such a resolution would require more trust and political will in both Zagreb and Belgrade. ¶3. (C) Vukicevic pointed out that at his credentials ceremony on December 7, President Mesic gave an "excellent" speech about the importance of cooperation between Serbia and Croatia. Unfortunately, the statement was overshadowed in Belgrade by the negative reaction to Croatia's oral argument at the ICJ on the same day in support of Kosovo's declaration of independence. Vukicevic characterized Croatia's arguments at the ICJ as "untrue" and bad for relations. The Ambassador noted that the U.S. had also made an oral argument at the ICJ and supported the Croatian decision to do so as well. The Ambassador stressed that it was important for the GoS to move on, and focus instead on trying to open a new chapter in relations between Croatia and Serbia. The USG could be relied on to be a strong partner in that process. ¶4. (C) Both the Ambassador and Vukicevic agreed that the February inauguration of the new Croatian president might offer an excellent opportunity to try to turn the page in bilateral relations between Croatia and Serbia. Addressing topics such as the unresolved border issues and the EU accession process could create a more constructive atmosphere. A greater emphasis on expanding those aspects of the relationship that were already strong, such as economic ties, would also help. Vukicevic said that he would keep in close contact with the Embassy to continue cooperation on improving relations between Croatia and Serbia. ¶5. (C) In a separate conversation on December 14, Prime Minister Kosor's foreign policy advisor Davor Stier told the Ambassador that Kosor and Serbian President Tadic spoke by phone on December 10 and 11. The first call was reportedly initiated by Tadic, to complain about Croatian participation in the ICJ oral arguments. Kosor defended the decision, noting that it was Serbia who had opted to open the debate at the ICJ, and therefore countries that had recognized Kosovo could be expected to explain their reasoning. Kosor did, however, want to open new channels of communication with Belgrade, and in their second conversation proposed using MFA State Secretary Davor Bozinovic (a former Croatian Ambassador to Serbia) as a special envoy to the GoS. According to Stier, the GoC was waiting for Belgrade to propose a date for Bozinovic to visit. (NOTE: Stier added that the ICJ case and relations with Serbia were also contributing to tensions within the governing coalition. The Croatian Serb SDSS party last week had again issued a threat, since dropped, to leave the government. Perhaps more ominously, Stier said Kosor knew that former PM Ivo Sanader had communicated privately with Tadic, criticizing the GoC's decision to participate in the ICJ arguments, and saying he would have handled it differently. END NOTE.) ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The bilateral relationship between Croatia and Serbia is likely to be under further strain in the coming months, as a result of continued fallout from Croatia's participation in the ICJ case, as well as President Mesic's planned official visit to Kosovo in January. The election of the new Croatian president, due to assume office on February 18, could help press the reset button on relations between ZAGREB 00000728 002 OF 002 the two countries, depending on who wins the race, and Kosor's initiative to open a new channel of communication is welcome. A key to moving the relationship forward, however, will be more focus on issues where both sides can realistically come to an agreement -- such as expanded trade ties or cooperation on the EU accession process -- and less focus on issues where the two countries are unlikely to reach accord -- such as Kosovo or compensation claims by Serbs who fled Croatia in the absence of a bilateral agreement to deal with the broader legacy issues from the war. FOLEY