AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES SLOVENIA, DOMESTIC POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000606 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV HR SI SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES SLOVENIA, DOMESTIC POLITICS WITH OPPOSITION LEADERS REF: LJUBLJANA 312 Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolEcon Counselor, for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Zoran Milanovic, President of Croatia's opposition Social Democrats, and Ivo Josipovic, the SDP's candidate in the upcoming Presidential elections, expressed deep suspicion about whether the Croatian government was being truthful in discussing its negotiations with Slovenia. Both believed PM Kosor had made promises to Slovenian PM Pahor that she was unwilling to acknowledge to the Croatian public. This fit with Milanovic's general theme that Kosor and the ruling HDZ party were deceitful, even citing the fact that the HDZ now supported some of the constitutional changes originally proposed by the SDP as a "trick." Nonetheless, Milanovic said he saw little chance that there would be parliamentary elections soon, since the HDZ's coalition partners were anxious to hold on to their government positions and would not risk facing the voters. Milanovic insisted, however, that Josipovic would win the upcoming presidential elections, despite the presence of other opposition candidates in the race. END SUMMARY. SLOVENIA -------------- ¶2. (C) Ambassador Foley paid his first call on SDP President Zoran Milanovic on October 2. Milanovic was joined in the meeting by SDP presidential candidate Ivo Josipovic. A central purpose of the meeting was to encourage the SDP to support a settlement of the border dispute with Slovenia and get Croatia's EU negotiations back on track. Milanovic said that the SDP supported a deal with Slovenia, but did not trust PM Kosor. He noted that the Croatian MFA, just days after Kosor made public a letter agreeing to continue talks on the border issue, had issued a statement under pressure from Ljubljana noting that Croatia had already "agreed" to the June 15 version of an Arbitration Agreement. Ambassador replied that the MFA had only stated that the June 15 text was "a basis" for further negotiations. Milanovic was dismissive, saying this was at odds "with what Pahor has told me." The Ambassador pushed back, stating that we were confident the negotiations were real, and that Croatia had not yet reached any final agreement with Slovenia. SDP presidential candidate and law professor Josipovic asked what it meant to use the June 15 text as the "basis" for negotiations. We explained that it meant any negotiated changes or additions would be to that text, rather than to any earlier versions. The Ambassador noted that he understood the SDP's suspicions, but urged them to withhold judgment until a final compromise was reached, since any agreed text would have to be debated by the respective parliaments in any case. We understood the frustrations that "quiet diplomacy" might create for an opposition party, but it had proved successful in getting the process this far. DOMESTIC POLITICS: THE HDZ CANNOT BE TRUSTED -------------- ¶3. (C) Simply put, Milanovic argued that the HDZ government could not be trusted. He alleged that the HDZ had engaged in voter fraud in the November 2007 elections, without explaining why the SDP had not made a serious push on this issue at that time. He also cited the government's recent proposals for constitutional change. Most of the changes were those required for EU accession, but additional measures were also included. Milanovic was most upset that the constitutional package included a provision to eliminate any statute of limitations on economic crimes in the privatization process. This was a proposal originally made by Josipovic, and now the HDZ was "tricking" the SDP by saying it was an HDZ proposal. ¶4. (C) When asked by the Ambassador whether PM Kosor's government might fall, and be forced to call early elections (the next elections are due by November 2011),Milanovic said he thought the current coalition would hold together, at least for some time. The HDZ and its coalition partners, he argued, were afraid to face the voters and would stick together in the coalition for as long as they could to keep their positions and powers of patronage. (NOTE: This jibes with what Vesna Pusic, a leader of the second largest opposition party, the HNS, told the Ambassador earlier in the week. While early elections had seemed likely just after then-PM Sanader's resignation in early July, the Kosor government now seems solid enough to carry on at least into ¶2010. END NOTE.) ¶5. (C) The SDP's focus, therefore, is on the presidential elections coming up in December and January. Milanovic noted that polls showed Josipovic well ahead of any rival. While it would likely require a run-off, Milanovic was confident Josipovic would win. Josipovic said the same, although he expressed some annoyance that other opposition candidates, particularly Pusic of the HNS, still intended to run instead of supporting him as a consensus opposition candidate. Milanovic preferred not to be alarmed by the prospective candidacy of Zagreb Mayor Milan Bandic, whom he believed would lose popularity if and when he bolted the SDP to run for president. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The SDP would dearly love to find fault with Kosor's negotiations with Slovenia. So far they have been unable to find solid grounds for such attacks, other than by misconstruing the MFA statement, or by criticizing Kosor's "secrecy." If, as Slovene PM Pahor is demanding (REFTEL), Kosor signed on to the June 15 text with no change or clarification to language that Croatia perceives as tilting the outcome toward granting Slovenia territorial contact with international waters, the SDP would have found an opening. In 2001, an SDP-led government initialed an agreement granting Slovenia a maritime corridor to international waters, but then could not get it through Parliament in large part because of HDZ opposition. That history, and Milanovic's comments to us, indicate the SDP would cry foul if the HDZ now sponsored an agreement which appeared to presume the same outcome. And, given continuing tensions within Kosor's own HDZ, the SDP could find some support from the more nationalist wing of the HDZ as well. END COMMENT. FOLEY