ZAGREB WEEKLY ACTIVITY REPORT - JANUARY 29, 2009

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SUBJECT: ZAGREB WEEKLY ACTIVITY REPORT - JANUARY 29, 2009


1. (U) EBRD PRESENTS ANNUAL TRANSITION REPORT; ZERO GROWTH
PROJECTED:
EBRD Lead Economist Peter Sanfey presented the report in
Zagreb this week, in which the bank downgraded growth
projections for Croatia to zero for 2009. Sanfey claimed
this was an optimistic scenario, given that most other
countries in the region face negative growth projections.
Croatia's top five trading partners in western Europe also
face negative growth forecasts, which is a worrisome sign
for Croatia's already weak export sector. Sanfey praised
Croatia's overall reform path, however, and called on the
government to focus efforts in four areas: privatization of
remaining state assets, particularly shipyards, improving
the business climate by elimination of unnecessary
regulations, health and pension reform, and completion of
the EU accession process. (DWestfall)


2. (U) BELGIUM APPROVES CROATIA'S NATO ACCESSION PROTOCOL:
The MFA reported on January 30 that it received
notification that the Parliament of Belgium approved
Croatia's accession protocol. The MFA said that by its
count Belgium was the 19th NATO member country whose
parliament passed the protocol. (PD'Amico)


3. (U) HOOLINGANISM MARS HANDBALL CHAMPIONSHIP:
Controversy and acts of violence aimed mostly against the
visiting Serbian handball team
have disrupted Croatia's otherwise successful hosting of
the World Handball Championship.
Problems began on Jan. 23 when Zivko Kolega, the mayor of
Zadar, one of the host cities, removed
the flags of all 24 competing teams from the city's main
square. Kolega argued that he was
responding to complaints about the presence of the Serbian
flag. Ethnic tensions still run high
in the Zadar area, which saw heavy fighting during the
1990's conflict. Though Kolega claimed
his actions were preventative, violent incidents were
reported only after the flags were removed.
A bomb threat was reported at the hotel where Serbian
players were staying, a car with Serbian
plates was vandalized, and a Macedonian fan was beaten with
a baseball bat. The Serbian team did
not attend a closing reception hosted by the mayor.
Kolega's actions were also widely criticized
in the media and by leading figures among the ruling HDZ
party, including Kolega's predecessor.
There are reports that Kolega will not run for re-election
in the upcoming municipal elections
(see items below). Ethnic incidents during the tournament
have not been exclusively in Zadar,
however. In Zagreb, two youth were detained for trying to
set the Serbian flag afire in the main
square, and Serb fans also reported some harassment in the
Istrian town of Porec. (JNCallahan)


4. (U) USG FUNDS REGIONAL DEMINING WORKSHOP:
The Croatian Mine Action Center (CROMAC) on January 26
hosted representatives from several countries for a
one-week workshop on combining satellite and aerial imagery
with landmine databases to generate detailed predictions of
danger-zones for landmines. The workshop was funded by the
U.S. Government through the International Trust Fund (ITF).
Participants included Mine Action Center officials and
Geographic Information System experts from Croatia, Serbia,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Macedonia, and Azerbaijan.
Participants learned about the latest technologies for
developing maps which better indicate probability levels
for landmines and discussed how to expand the Croatian
pilot project to other countries. ITF announced that it is
funding an expansion of the project to Bosnia. (CZimmer)


5. (U) TWEAKS TO LOCAL ELECTION LAW LOOK LIKELY:
The leading election-monitoring NGO "GONG" along with the
Law Faculty of Zagreb organized a
panel discussion on January 27 to discuss some legal
ambiguities present in the new local
election laws, which provides for the direct election of
mayors and county prefects (zupans).
The roundtable included prominent members of parliament,
the government, and academics and while
disagreeing on whether direct elections of local government
executives would bring "more"
democracy, they did agree on list of changes to improve the
functioning of the new local election
law. This included, for instance, further clarifying the
powers to be wielded by mayors and
county prefects vis-Q-vis the relevant local assemblies.
The roundtable also identified several

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other laws regarding local governance that should be
amended to bring them in line with the new
local election law. (ZTOMIC)


6. (U)PARTIES JOCKEY OVER MAYORAL CANDIDATES:
The center-right HDZ on January 27 named the youthful
city-counsel woman and parliamentarian
Vesna Buterin as their candidate for mayor of Rijeka after
their first choice, the director of the
Rijeka Port, declined to run. The HDZ hasn't officially
named its candidate for prefect in the
Primorje-Gorski Kotar, which includes Rijeka, but local
media report they have asked Josip Boric,
Director for Island and Coastal Development in the central
government, to run. Regardless
of the fresh faces, the HDZ has a steep hill to climb in
Rijeka. In Zagreb, Radimir Cacic,
president of the Croatian Peoples' Party (HNS),is likely
to pull out of the race for Mayor
despite recent polls that show him as the only candidate
anywhere close to incumbent Zagreb mayor
Milan Bandic. Cacic, who is rumored to have his sights on
the presidency, may not want to lose a
local election contest just prior to possibly contesting
the presidency in January 2010. In
place of Cacic, the HNS is expected to announce that Zagreb
city-council woman and former
parliamentarian Alenka Kosisa Cicin-Sain will be their
candidate for mayor. Also this week,
Branimir Glavas, head of the Croatian Democratic Alliance
of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB),announced
that he would not run for mayor of Osijek but for county
prefect of Osijek-Baranje. While the
currrent county prefect, Kresimir Bubablo, would be the
HDSSB's candidate for mayor in Osijek.
(DMEGES)


BRADTKE