EUR DAS JONES' ZAGREB DISCUSSIONS ON SLOVENIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000552

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR SI EUC
SUBJECT: EUR DAS JONES' ZAGREB DISCUSSIONS ON SLOVENIA
BORDER DISPUTE

REF: A. KARAGIANNIS-FREDEN 9/1/09 EMAILS

B. FREDEN-HOLTZAPPLE 9/2/09 EMAILS

C. LJUBLJANA 281

D. ZAGREB 551

Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolEcon Counselor,
for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Jandrokovic
told visiting EUR DAS Stu Jones on September 1 that he
believed agreement with Slovenia on a way forward in the
border dispute was near, and that Croatia's EU accession
negotiations might be able to re-start soon. He added that
he was also confident that the two sides could relatively
quickly reach agreement on the next phase of the process, an
agreement on how to put the border dispute itself to binding
arbitration. Both the Foreign Minister and the President's
foreign policy advisor confirmed to DAS Jones that they would
continue to pursue "quiet diplomacy" and avoid to the maximum
degree possible any public comment on the discussions with
Slovenia. END SUMMARY.


2. (C/NF) Jandrokovic said he would send a letter to European
Commissioner Olli Rehn and/or the presiding EU foreign
minister Carl Bildt of Sweden that would address Slovene
concerns that no prejudicial decisions have been taken
regarding the border and confirm Croatia's commitment to an
EU-led process to return to discussions to agree on an
arbitration tribunal that would resolve the border dispute
once and for all. Once the letter was sent, Jandrokovic
said, Slovenia is expected to lift its blockade of pending EU
accession chapters and allow Croatia's EU accession
negotiations to resume. Jandrokovic expressed confidence
that the two countries would then be able to quickly agree on
an arbitration tribunal. The only obstacle was how to refer
to the possibility of a Slovene "junction" with the High Sea.
If Slovenia was willing to consider changes that clarified
that such a junction was not a foregone conclusion, then it
should not be difficult to reach agreement. Pressed by DAS
Jones on whether he was certain the Slovene side was prepared
to lift its block on accession negotiations even before a
final agreement on the arbitration process was reached,
Jandrokovic said the sequence of the deal was clear to both
sides. (Per Embassy Ljubljana, the Government of Slovenia
confirms the timing, but insists the reference to Rehn must
be explicit.)


3. (U) DAS Jones said the U.S. is encouraged by the positive
mood in recent weeks on this issue. We do not want to
mediate the dispute, but are certainly supportive of the
efforts to reach a solution. We hoped that agreements on
both the re-opening of Croatia's EU talks, and on an
arbitration process for the border dispute, could be reached
quickly.


4. (C) DAS Jones also discussed the Slovenia issue with
President Mesic's foreign policy advisor Tomislav Jakic.
Jakic noted that Mesic and his office were not directly
involved in the negotiations with Slovenia. He also noted
that it would be a political challenge for the government to
go back to the parliament with a new version of an
arbitration agreement after the Croatian parliament had
already accepted the earlier Rehn proposal in April. But he
said that Mesic would support an agreement for third-party
arbitration, as long as it was based on international law.
Jakic also agreed that both sides would need to avoid any
"triumphalist" statements in their official statements,
although he raised some concern about how the press might
portray developments.


5. (C/NF) COMMENT: The Croatians are indeed optimistic on
the chances for reaching agreement with the Slovenes soon.
Based on REFS A and B, both sides appear to share a common
view of the way forward. The process as we understand it
from the Croatians is as follows (note that this scenario is
very close hold, even within the Croatian government, where
perhaps less than a dozen people are familiar with the
details):

i) the parties agree on a text of a letter saying two things:
first, that no decisions or documents produced since June
1991 should prejudice the eventual resolution of the border
dispute, and second, that Croatia is prepared to return to an
EU-led or assisted process to agree on an arbitration
process. This letter would be endorsed in some way by the
Croatian Parliament, and then sent to Commission Rehn,
Swedish FM Bildt, or both. Per REF C, it appears the two

parties have reached agreement on this letter.

ii) The Slovenian government would lift its reserves on those
of Croatia's EU accession chapters current pending in the EU
Council working group and which have already been accepted by
the other 26 EU Member States.

iii) The Swedish EU Presidency convenes an Intergovernmental
Conference (IGC),the first since October 2008, to open
and/or close as many of fourteen negotiating chapters. From
earlier conversations with Croatian officials, we understand
that in an ideal scenario this Intergovernmental Conference")
is penciled in by the Swedish EU Presidency for as early as
September 16.

iv) Bildt, Rehn or both call both parties to a meeting to
re-convene discussions on an Arbitration Agreement, based on
the earlier Rehn proposals.

v) An Arbitration Agreement is reached "by the end of 2009".
Both parliaments presumably need to ratify this Agreement to
ensure that the arbitration award will be binding on both
sides. The Arbitration Tribunal is named and begins its
work.

vi) Croatia's EU accession negotiations conclude (sometime in
2010?),assuming other issues such as ICTY cooperation are
also resolved.

vii) Croatia and all EU Member States, including Slovenia,
ratify Croatia's Accession Treaty (sometime in 2011?). In
Croatia this will require both a public referendum and
parliamentary ratification. In Slovenia, it is hoped
ratification could be done by parliament alone, but the
requirements for forcing a referendum are relatively easy to
meet. Croatia joins the EU.

viii) The Arbitration Tribunal issues its decision or award.

Assuming this process moves forward on lines similar to those
laid out above, and in particular as the issues arise for
parliamentary consideration -- first to support the initial
letter, and later to ratify an actual Arbitration Agreement
to be make it binding -- we should be prepared to publicly
voice our support for the process. END COMMENT.


6. (U) DAS Jones has cleared this cable. Other issues
discussed during his visit to Zagreb are reported REF D.
WALKER