NEW KOSOR GOVERNMENT KNOWS TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 000467 SIPDIS DEPT FOR INR/OPS MICHAEL OWENS, TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LARRY NORTON E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2019 TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV HR SUBJECT: NEW KOSOR GOVERNMENT KNOWS TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR ECONOMY (C-RE9-00787) REF: A. STATE 76695 ¶B. ZAGREB 413 ¶C. ZAGREB 448 Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, POL/ECON for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The Croatian economy is likely to shrink between 4 and 5 percent in 2009, and the Government of Croatia is struggling to cut its budget deficit down to a manageable level and secure financing. Years of poor and bloated fiscal policy are at the center of Croatia's problems, but government response in terms of spending cuts has been modest at best. A mix of tax hikes in Zagreb,s latest budget revision, however, may help the budget while harming the economy. In the coming months, the new Kosor-led government may well need to reach out to the IMF for a line-of-credit, even as spending demands from organized labor and other special interests groups continue. The main opposition parties are increasingly speaking with one voice and questioning the legitimacy of the current government. The prospects of social protests in September and October, along with a contentious debate for the 2010 budget could combine to force early elections. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT "Someday this will all be yours" -------------- ¶2. (U) Jadranka Kosor inherited from Prime Minister Sanader a government and an economy bending under their own weight. Almost 50 percent of GDP is consumed by the public sector. According to a senior researcher at the Institute for Public Finance, Croatia has some 600 municipal government structures with almost 67,000 employees, an 80 percent increase over just ten years ago. In comparison, Serbia has only 200 such localities. Croatia's foreign debt load is close to 100 percent of GDP. Croatia has the third lowest labor participation rate in Europe, and 40 percent of the population receives some form of government payment from salary, pensions, or subsidies. Croatia's percentage of exports in GDP (25 percent) is among the lowest in the region, while its VAT tax rate is among the highest (22, soon to be 23 percent). Accordingly, the government's fiscal problems are deeply rooted. ¶3. (U) Additionally, fully a fifth of the country depends on a single product - tourism - which suffers from a relatively strong domestic currency and a very short 2 month season. Industrial production is down 10 percent in the first half of the year and that number is likely to worsen further as the year progresses. Correspondingly, unemployment is trending up and the number of delinquent loans is growing. ¶4. (U) Kosor can feel good about one area - monetary policy - which by all accounts remains sound, with a solid foreign reserve position and widely respected conservative policies that have contributed to the general stability of the banking system. The central bank will reportedly soon lower mandatory reserve requirements yet again to free up credit. Unfortunately, as in the past, the lion's share of this credit will go to the government to cover their many obligations, crowding out any hope of a strong increase in lending to the private sector. The Central Bank,s actions, should they come to pass as outlined in recent media reports, could provide approximately $1 billion to the local banking sector, who would then most likely buy government bonds. ¶5. (C) Kosor nevertheless takes the reins of the economy with one significant advantage - she has little to lose by taking risks. A key member of the Croatian Peasant's Party (HSS), one of the minority parties in the government coalition, told us that Kosor recognizes the weakness of the HDZ government, knows her time could be limited, and that the required tasks will likely leave her politically spent. She also knows an early election would likely mean HDZ defeat at the polls. This situation leaves her with a good deal of freedom to make unpopular moves, at least in the short term, according to our contact. Kosor, allegedly, has threatened fellow party members that she would resign if they do not squarely line up behind her policies. Furthermore, she is not beholden to any particular special interest group, and has a long-standing relationship with the war veterans -- long a sacred cow in Croatian society. Leveraging this relationship, Kosor has already convinced the war veterans, recipients of lavish pensions, to accept cuts in the pending budget rebalance. According to our HSS contact, with the veterans behind her it will be hard for other groups to claim they can't accept cuts themselves. Kosor has hinted at public sector layoffs to save additional money in September. ZAGREB 00000467 002 OF 003 ¶6. (C) Kosor has moved quickly since assuming office on July 6 in making a strong push to shore up the budget. A modest budget revision was passed two weeks ago (REF B),and another bill (Croatia's third budget revision this year) is in progress. In addition to the pension cuts mentioned above, the new revision calls for a 2 percent "crisis tax" to be levied on personal incomes above 3000 kuna per month (4 percent on incomes over 4000 kuna),as well as a one percent rise in the VAT rate to 23 percent. While economists we have spoken to in recent days credit her serious approach, all of them feel that the idea of a temporary tax hike is seriously misguided. The Director of the Economics Institute of Zagreb, who has been personally advising the Prime Minister on economic strategy, told us Croatia's problems have always been on the expenditure side, and that the government has missed many opportunities over the years to make needed reforms. Many economists expect these tax hikes to deliver a short-term boost to revenue, but act as a drag on the economic recovery hoped for in the second half of 2010. While she did not reveal exactly what she has told the PM, our contact said she fears IMF intervention may simply be a matter of time. Time for an Intervention -------------- ¶7. (C) Kosor is continuing the tradition of PM Sanader by denying at every opportunity the need for IMF intervention. Fewer and fewer observers believe this. The head of research for Hypo Bank Alpe Adria told us he has seen evidence to indicate that at least informal discussions between the government and IMF officials are already underway. Others have said the government will exhaust its options sometime this fall and be forced to call in the IMF. There are mixed opinions on the consequences of an IMF intervention. Some, like the local EBRD Director, feel the consequences would be few. She said IMF conditionalities in the world financial crisis have tended not to be as stringent, and what the IMF will demand is already well known to the government. Others, however, such as our HSS contact, believe that the arrival of the IMF will mark the failure of the HDZ, resulting in the fall of the government. It would certainly damage the credibility of Kosor, and even more so, Finance Minister Suker, who has been an ardent public opponent of dealing with the IMF. Hu Will Save the Economy? -------------- ¶8. (SBU) In the meantime, Finance Minister Suker has left for China in an attempt to secure a loan to shore up state finances. Hu Jintao recently paid a visit to Russia, Slovakia, and Croatia, so Suker is looking to take advantage of some mutual goodwill. Another bond issue might also be an option. Croatia struck the market at precisely the right time with its previous eurobond issue in May, according to the EBRD, but market conditions this autumn may be much less favorable. Beyond these options, or the IMF, it is difficult to see where the money will come from if the government is unable to plug the deficit hole. Despite the additional revenue that can be expected as a result of the tax hikes and the modest spending cuts in the forthcoming budget revision, the GoC will still need no less than $1.5 billion in financing for this year's deficit alone. Standard and Poor's has already signaled that a credit rating downgrade is looming, a move that perhaps only an IMF line-of-credit could avert. No Salvation from Tourism -------------- ¶9. (SBU) All eyes are on Croatia's largest source of foreign currency, tourism, to somehow show better than expected results. This is unlikely. The President of Adriatica.net, Croatia's largest travel agency, told us tourism revenue is already down 15 percent this year. This could be disastrous in an industry operating on fairly low profit margins (according to Adriatica, the hotel industry in Croatia generated only 50 million euro in profit on 1 billion in revenue last year). The Tourism Ministry claims numbers are down only slightly, but Hypo Bank sides with Adriatica's figures by looking at the sharp downturn in foreign currency trading in Croatia. The economic crisis has revealed the structural weaknesses in Croatia's tourism industry, according to the Adriatica president. He said a strong currency and a lack of any long-term investment strategy means that "we have a competitive landscape, but not a ZAGREB 00000467 003 OF 003 competitive product." COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) Zagreb in July and August is a quiet place, with most residents spending at least a couple weeks in their vacation homes on the coast. While a few seasonal jobs still can be found, the Prime Minister could skillfully take advantage of this time to push through some of her more controversial, but necessary, policies. In the fall, however, the situation is likely to heat up significantly. Only a few weeks from now Kosor will have to begin work on a 2010 budget, which will be an equally difficult task. The main opposition parties are becoming more united, exhibiting confidence and arguing that only early elections can give a government a mandate to make these tough cuts. Particularly problematic for the government will be the months of September and October, when it is likely that the IMF will be cautioning the government to hold firm (or worse) on spending levels for this year and next, while various special interest groups -- unions farmers, or students -- may simultaneously be taking to the streets to demand relaxing of austerity measures. Without better economic news or some major political successes to report by then, the Prime Minister could face significant public disfavor, and the real possibility of some coalition defections. This could lead to early elections, or to a government that has lost public legitimacy, clinging to power by the slimmest of majorities and attempting to muddle through. The ability of the opposition to articulate a viable alternative and compelling vision is likely to be a key factor in determining which scenario comes to pass. END COMMENT. ¶11. This cable responds to questions A-C from REF A. Questions D-G, regarding Croatia's mid- and long- term energy strategy, will be covered septel. WALKER