SDP SELECTS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE; SEEKING ALLIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000432

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR HR
SUBJECT: SDP SELECTS PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE; SEEKING ALLIES

REF: A. ZAGREB 402

B. ZAGREB 407

C. ZAGREB 413

Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, Pol/Econ, Reasons 1.4 B/D


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In the first ever party primary in
Croatia, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) on July 12 chose
law professor Ivo Josipovic as the party's presidential
candidate for elections to be held in late December 2009 or
early January 2010. The formal Josipovic campaign will
probably begin slowly, but the SDP is already negotiating
with other parties to support Josipovic, and to join SDP as
potential coalition partners for early parliamentary
elections, which the SDP anticipates will be held in the
spring of 2010. Josipovic's nomination represents a victory
for SDP head Zoran Milanovic over his detractors within the
party. Should Milanovic also succeed in forging strong
cooperation with some of Croatia's smaller parties in the
coming six months, the SDP should be well positioned for the
presidential race as well as potential early parliamentary
elections. END SUMMARY.

SDP PRIMARY CHOOSES PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE...


2. (U) In an unprecedented move, the SDP executive committee
determined in mid-June to hold an internal vote of all SDP
members in order to choose the party's nominee for the
upcoming election to replace current President Stipe Mesic.
(NOTE: The Croatian Constitution stipulates that
presidential elections have to be held between 60 and 30 days
before the incumbent President's mandate expires, which
dictates that the next presidential election will occur
between mid-December 2009 and mid-January 2010. END NOTE.)
On July 12, nearly 20,000 of the roughly 34,000 registered
SDP members went to local branch offices to choose between
two current SDP members of parliament: academic and legal
expert Ivo Josipovic, and well-known economist Ljubo Jurcic.
Josipovic, the clear personal favorite of Milanovic, received
61 percent of the vote and pledged that his campaign would
focus on enhancing the rule of law and democracy, a theme
which he called a "new justness" for all Croatians.

...AND REACHES OUT TO OTHER PARTIES


3. (SBU) In the aftermath of PM Ivo Sanader's surprise
resignation and the formation a new government led by
Jadranka Kosor (reftels),the SDP has been increasing its
contacts with several smaller parties in parliament, with an
eye toward early parliamentary elections. Secretary General
of the SDP, Igor Dragovan, told PolOff on July 13 that the
SDP expects the Kosor government will falter in the face of
the crumbling economy and ongoing corruption scandals, and
the SDP is expecting new elections will likely be held in
spring 2010. Therefore, the SDP is carefully considering an
"informal" proposal from fellow-opposition party the Croatian
Peoples' Party (HNS),in which the HNS would support
Josipovic for president and the SDP and HNS would run a
combined list for the next parliamentary elections. Despite
HNS suggestions on the positions it would like in a future
SDP-HNS government, Dragovan noted that it was way too early
to speak about the actual division of governmental positions.
The SDP felt such a discussion would come across as arrogant
and prompt a public backlash if the SDP presupposed electoral
victory. Also, Dragovan said he was aware that not all HNS
members liked the idea of backing Josipovic -- particularly
since HNS president Radimir Cacic has his own presidential
ambitions -- in exchange for future cooperation in an as yet
unscheduled parliamentary election. Still, he said the SDP
and HNS were talking strategically.


4. (C) The SDP is also actively courting its longtime
regional partner, the Istrian Democratic Party (IDS),for its
eventual support of Josipovic. IDS representative Damir
Kajin has stated the party is not inclined to back Josipovic,
at least in the first round, as Kajin is planning to run for
president as well. Dragovan, however, expects that the IDS
would support Josipovic in a second round run-off. Lastly,
sensing the Kosor-led coalition government is not on as firm
a ground as it was under Sanader, the SDP has reached out to
the Croatian Peasants' Party (HSS),the second largest party
in the HDZ's ruling coalition. Milanovic recently probed HSS
chief Josip Friscic's feelings about continuing to support
Kosor as prime minister, and hinted at the possibility of
cooperation in the future between the HSS and SDP. Despite
this effort, Milanovic's relationship with Friscic remains
icy and the SDP is aware the HSS would likely table
significant demands in exchange for a supporting a future
SDP-led government. Still, several HSS members of parliament
are disgruntled with Friscic's leadership and feel their
constituencies naturally favor the SDP over Kosor,s Croatian
Democratic Union (HDZ).

JOSIPOVIC CANDIDACY STRENGHTENS MILANOVIC'S HAND


5. (SBU) Milanovic has been under fire from several factions
of the SDP in recent months, but he seems to be finding his
footing as the economic crisis continues and the Kosor
government begins to struggle with the need to pass unpopular
budget cuts. The high turnout and the party-base's embrace
of Josipovic is a clear boost to Milanovic's grip on the
party. It may also silence critics who felt that Milanovic's
exclusion of other potential SDP candidates from the primary
ballot was a mistake. Milanovic now has nearly six months to
get the party machinery ready for the presidential election,
further tailor the party,s message, and forge alliances with
some smaller parties. Josipovic, for his part, may need a
little time to get comfortable on the national stage and
refine his style; during an early July "primary" debate on
Nova TV Josipovic appeared a bit more nervous than Jurcic and
can, at times, come across as distant, professorial, and
aloof. The latest public opinion poll by Promcija Plus
conducted in early July put Josipovic in second place (2
points behind Sanader) with about 14 percent support
nationally, an increase of roughly 5 points from previous
polls.

BIOGRAPHIC BACKGROUND


6. (U) Dr Ivo Josipovic was born in Zagreb in 1957. He
graduated in 1980 from the University of Zagreb, School of
Law and passed the bar examination in 1982. He completed his
Master's Degree in Criminal Law in 1984 and his Ph.D. in
Criminal Law with a doctoral thesis on pre-trial detention in

1995. Since 1995, he has been a Professor of Criminal
Procedure and International Criminal Law at the University of
Zagreb as well as regularly lecturing at the Police Academy
and Diplomatic Academy. Josipovic is also a musician and
composer, and he has a degree from the Zagreb Academy of
Music. He was first elected to the Croatian parliament
(Sabor) in 2003, as an SDP candidate, although he only
formally joined the SDP in 2008. He chairs the SDP's council
on Human Rights and Civil Society. In the Sabor, he sits on
the Legislation and the Judiciary Committees. He is married.
His speaks good English, but prefers to speak in Croatian
with visitors. In February 2002, he participated in an
Embassy-sponsored International Visitor Program trip on
foreign policy and human rights.

COMMENT


7. (C) The novelty of an open party primary, and the
generally good reputation of Josipovic, have produced a few
days of positive press coverage for the SDP and Milanovic.
The almost certain absence of Sanader in the upcoming
presidential race, and the likelihood that the relatively
unpopular Andrija Hebrang will be the HDZ's candidate for
president, combine to strengthen the chances that the SDP's
voter-base will put Josipovic in a second round run-off,
possibly against an independent, populist candidate. Wild
cards in this presidential race are numerous, however. A
large number of candidates are likely to run -- we expect
around 10 or so -- and one of them may be the SDP's own
populist mayor of Zagreb, Milan Bandic, who has little
affection for Milanovic. Also, President Mesic, who is very
popular with the SDP's left-leaning voters, is likely to
informally endorse a candidate in the waning days of 2009.
Mesic has commented that Josipovic won the right to campaign
for the presidency in a very democratic way, but he has been
generally very tight-lipped about whom he might eventually
favor. Another key will be the SDP's outreach to other
parties. Such negotiations represent a challenge for the
sometimes prickly Milanovic, but, if successful, would bode
well for Josipovic's prospects, as well as the SDP's chances
should early parliamentary elections materialize in the first
half of 2010. END COMMENT.
BRADTKE