CROATIA'S VIEWS ON THE NATO RATIFICATION PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000040 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/SCE AND EUR/RPM E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL NATO HR SUBJECT: CROATIA'S VIEWS ON THE NATO RATIFICATION PROCESS REF: ZAGREB 15 Classified By: Ambassador Robert A. Bradtke, for reasons 1.4(b) & (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On January 21 Croatia held a State Council meeting on NATO, which focused on progress toward ratification of Croatia's Accession Protocol among NATO allies and domestically. Following the State Council's meeting, PM Sanader expressed cautious optimism that the process will be complete before the April NATO Summit, despite the recent disagreements with Slovenia over the border. The GoC has started its own domestic ratification process and was not expecting any serious complications. By the MFA's count (para 5 below),as of January 21 nine allies had deposited, eight had ratified but not yet deposited, and nine had not officially completed ratification. Of the nine that have not yet completed ratification the GoC is closely watching Portugal, Iceland, and Slovenia. Despite some earlier concerns about Greece and Luxembourg the GoC was reassured that both would ratify in a timely manner after Sanader spoke with PMs Karamanlis and Junker. End Summary. Sanader Expresses Cautious Optimism -------------- ¶2. (C) Following the State Council's meeting, PM Sanader stated to the press that despite the current dispute with Ljubljana over the border he expected that Slovenia would ratify the accession protocol in time for the summit. In a conversation with the Ambassador on January 21 the Croatian Ambassador to NATO Igor Pokaz said that Sanader has also expressed privately that he believes Slovenia will ratify the accession protocols in time, but given the problems over the border no one could be certain until the ratification process was finished. (Note: On January 23 the Croatian press reported that the Slovenian parliament's foreign policy committee delayed discussions on the ratification of Croatia,s NATO accession protocol until January 26. However, the Croatian media portrayed this latest development as a minor delay and reported that Slovenia was expected to ratify by the end of January. End Note.) Croatian Ratification -------------- ¶3. (C) Marko Horvat, Director of the MFA's NATO Department, said that his ministry was scheduled to send the draft legislation for the ratification of the NATO accession protocols to other ministries on January 26 for comments, as required by Croatian law. The office of the President, the office of the Prime Minister, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Council for National Security, and the legislative office of the GoC would all be consulted about the draft. After that process is complete the GoC would be ready to put the draft before the Sabor. Sabor President, Luka Bebic, stated after the State Council meeting that once the accession protocols are ratified by all the NATO allies the Sabor would vote on the instrument of ratification. ¶4. (C) Once submitted to the Sabor, Horvat did not anticipate any problems with obtaining approval. Croatia's NATO membership enjoys broad support among all political parties and the Sabor leadership would be prepared to move quickly on ratification. Horvat said that one point of debate might be whether ratification requires a two-thirds or simple majority vote. According to Article 139 of the Croatian Constitution, treaties that transfer aspects of Croatian sovereignty to another institution require a two-thirds vote to pass. The MFA is making the case that membership in NATO (as a consensus organization) does not require Croatia to relinquish any sovereignty, so only a simple majority is needed. In any case, the vote to approve the instrument of ratification in the Sabor is expected to be overwhelming, since both the government and opposition support Croatia's NATO membership. After the Sabor has approved the instrument of ratification, the President must then sign it. When that is completed Croatia would be ready to deposit its instrument of accession. Allies' Ratification -------------- ¶5. (C) The MFA has been monitoring the ratification process in NATO allied countries on a daily basis, and has had its Ambassadors out urging passage of the Accession Protocol. As of January 21, the MFA had received notification that the following nine countries have deposited ratifications: - Hungary - Latvia - The United States - Lithuania - Poland - Bulgaria - Slovakia - Canada - UK As of January 21, the MFA counted the following eight countries as having completed the ratification process, but not yet having deposited their instruments of ratification: - Romania - Turkey - Norway - Estonia - Denmark - Czech Republic - Spain - Italy ¶6. (C) The GoC has reached out to several countries where they have been concerned about the ratification process. In addition to watching closely the developments in Slovenia, Sanader recently spoke with his counterparts in Greece and Luxembourg to discuss the ratification process. The GoC is also trying to step up its efforts in Lisbon, due to concerns about the pace of ratification there. Additionally, the GoC is monitoring the situation in Iceland since it worries that the internal instability caused by the economic crisis could delay the GoI's efforts to ratify quickly. ¶7. (C) The MFA, as of January 21, had the following information on the countries it understands have not yet completed the ratification process: Belgium: The MFA reported that the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Belgian Parliament held a hearing on the issue on January 20 and that the full parliament was expected to vote on Protocol the by the end of January. France: The Foreign Affairs Committee in the French Parliament was expected to vote on January 28, and the full parliament by the end of February. Germany: Horvat noted that the Croatian MFA considered the ratification process to be practically finished, but that German President Koehler's signature was required to complete the process. Greece: Amb. Pokaz told the Ambassador that following a phone call from Sanader to PM Konstandinos Karamanlis regarding possible delays in the Greek ratification process (reftel),the GoC now believed that Greece would ratify soon. Based on the latest information from the Croatian Ambassador in Athens, the Croatian MFA anticipates a vote in the Greek parliament in mid-February. Iceland: Horvat said that the Croatian Ambassador to Denmark, who also covers Iceland, was in Reykjavik on January 21 to further access the situation. Luxembourg: Pokaz also told the Ambassador that Sanader also called PM Jean-Claude Junker and came away reassured that Luxembourg would ratify in time. The Croatian MFA anticipated that Luxembourg would hold a vote in mid-February. The Netherlands: The lower house of parliament approved the protocols in December and the Croatian MFA expected the upper house to vote before the end of January. Portugal: According to the latest information, a vote in the Portuguese parliament would likely take place in either February or March. Slovenia: Horvat said that the vote in the Slovenian parliament was scheduled towards the end of January. Despite the efforts of smaller opposition parties to link NATO ratification with the border dispute, Horvat expects the main opposition party to vote with the GoS to approve the accession protocol with the required two-thirds majority. BRADTKE