UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE CLAPPER DISCUSSES REGION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ZAGREB 000321 NOFORN SIPDIS PLEASE PASS TO THE OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE, EUCOM PLANS AND ANALYSES STUTTGART GE, US MILITARY DELEGATION AT USNATO, AND THE OFFICE OF THE UNDER SECRETARY FOR DEFENSE POLICY E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO MOPS MARR NATO HR SUBJECT: UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE CLAPPER DISCUSSES REGION AND BILATERAL COOPERATION WITH CROATIAN LEADERSHIP Classified By: PolOfficer Peter D'Amico, for reasons 1.4(b) & (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. President Mesic told Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence James Clapper on June 1 that Serbia needed to send a public message to the political elite in Republika Srpska that they were part of BiH and should look to Sarajevo, not to Belgrade. Mesic warned that the leaders in the RS were hoping that the international community will eventually give up on BiH, and added that the international community's active involvement, particularly that of the Office of the High Representative, was needed to create a viable BiH state. Regarding the border dispute with Slovenia, Mesic said that the Government of Slovenia was "maltreating" Croatia to force a territorial concession from Zagreb and added that Croatia could not give up territory under such conditions. Clapper expressed appreciation for the opportunity to hear Mesic's views on the region and responded that the USG did not believe that bilateral disputes should block Euro-Atlantic integration. In a meeting with Defense Minster Vukelic, Clapper asked for Croatia's support on reforming intelligence cooperation at NATO to promote greater sharing of information and collaboration. During his meetings with Mesic and Vukelic, Clapper thanked Croatia for its contributions to international peacekeeping missions, particularly ISAF. End Summary. Mesic on Serbia's Relations with Kosovo and BiH ¶2. (C) In a June 1 meeting with Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence James Clapper, President Mesic stated that since Serbia could not govern Kosovo, the United States and Croatia made the correct decision in recognizing Kosovo's independence. Mesic noted that the GoS had a made a good move when it turned the issue of Kosovo into a legal question with its case before the ICJ. By making the issue less political, this process might give Serbia the opportunity to "de-Kosovize" its politics. Serbia did not need to recognize the independence of Kosovo, but should coexist and interact with Kosovo while both sides agreed to disagree on the status of Kosovo, just as East and West Germany had done during the Cold War. ¶3. (C) Mesic said that Serbia's policy towards Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) was a problem. Mesic characterized Tadic as a friend, and said that he had asked the Serbian President why he has not publicly told the Bosnian Serbs that their state is BiH, their capital is Sarajevo, and that they should go to Sarajevo to shape policy. Tadic responded that he could not make such a statement due to internal Serbian politics. Mesic noted that he had publicly made this kind of declaration to the Bosnian Croat community and it was a fundamental part of Croatia's policy towards BiH. Absent a similar message from Belgrade, the political elite in the Republika Srpska (RS) would not consider playing a constructive role in the future of BiH. Challenges Facing BiH ¶4. (C) Mesic said one of the major challenges facing the region was that the political elite in the RS was opposed to the existence of a BiH state. RS PM Milorad Dodik did not recognize BiH, only the RS. Mesic added that the RS was founded on a policy of ethnic cleansing and noted that the majority of Croatian and Bosniak refugees from the RS still had not returned since the leadership in Banja Luka did not want this to happen. ¶5. (C) According to Mesic, Dayton stopped war but it did not create a mechanism for BiH to function effectively. While there were some state level institutions that existed in BiH, like the integrated armed forces, the RS still retained too many of the functions of a state and would not give them up. The international community's active involvement was needed to reach an agreement among the three constituent peoples on creating a viable BiH state. Mesic cautioned that the political elite in the RS thinks that the international community will eventually get tired and leave BiH. If that happens the RS would eventually attempt to join Serbia and ZAGREB 00000321 002 OF 003 BiH would collapse. If BiH fell apart with the RS going to Serbia, then the Bosnian Croats would leave in large numbers for Croatia. Left with a rump state made up almost entirely of Muslims, the Bosniaks would turn to fundamentalist Islamic countries for support, making Bosnia a potential base for terrorism in Europe. ¶6. (C) To avoid this scenario the Office of the High Representative (OHR) had to use the Bonn powers to remove political figures from power who did not recognize the BiH as a state. Mesic believed that NATO's presence in BiH was also essential. ¶7. (C) Mesic also noted that while Croatia supported BiH's territorial integrity and wanted to strengthen state level insinuations there, Zagreb should change some of its Bosnia policies. Mesic said policies, such as the law on dual citizenship, dated back to the time of the war and contributed to Bosnian Croats leaving BiH. He noted that he had told the GoC that the Croatian law on dual citizenship should be changed so that Bosnian Croats could only vote in the elections of one country. While some political figures in Croatia did not want to get rid of these votes, Mesic expressed the hope that somehow the political will would be found to solve the situation. Additionally, the laws on extradition in Croatia and the region needed to be amended so convicted criminals could not avoid justice by fleeing to a neighboring country that does not allow its citizens to be extradited. Mesic on Border Dispute with Slovenia ¶8. (C) Mesic said that the Government of Slovenia was "maltreating" Croatia and the EU by blocking Croatia's progress toward EU membership to force a concession on the disputed border from Zagreb. Mesic said that Croatia could not give up territory under such conditions. Calling for an international legal solution to the border dispute, Mesic argued that if Croatia as a state should be based on the rule of law then it followed that its relations with other states should be based on international law. Mesic added that the border dispute was not just a problem for Croatia now, but for the EU as well. ¶9. (C) Mesic noted that when Slovenia was trying to join the EU the border dispute existed, but Zagreb did not raise objections since Slovenian membership in the EU was in Croatia's interest. For the long-term stability of the region and Europe it was important that the countries of Southeast Europe become part of the Euro-Atlantic community so as not to create a "gray zone" in the middle of Europe. Slovenia was acting in an "inflated" manner by putting its own agenda ahead of the best interests of the region and Europe more broadly. Mesic acknowledged that there might be expansion fatigue in the EU, but it also needed to recognize that some in region would grow tired being stuck in a transition phase towards EU membership. Clapper stated that the USG did not believe that bilateral disputes should block Euro-Atlantic integration and agreed that the problem needed to be resolved. Intelligence Cooperation with Croatia ¶10. (C/NF) In a meeting on June 1 with Defense Minster Branko Vukelic and the Director of Military Security and Intelligence Agency (VSOA) General Darko Grdic, Clapper noted that he had just come to Croatia from a NATO intelligence board meeting in Slovenia where the allies were very gratified that two new members had joined the Alliance. Clapper said the USG wanted to work with Croatia on reforming intelligence cooperation at NATO to promote greater sharing of information and collaboration. There was a need to change the intelligence strategy at NATO since it was still too based on ideas from the Cold War. NATO should change its intelligence structure to face new threats such as terrorism and operate in a more expeditionary fashion. Croatia as a new member of the Alliance could play an important leadership role in this process, particularly at NATO Headquarters. Clapper also encouraged the GoC to support the NATO Special ZAGREB 00000321 003 OF 003 Forces Coordination Center. ¶11. (C/NF) Clapper praised the multilateral work being done in support of NATO at the Intelligence Fusion Center in Molesworth and was pleased to hear that Croatia planned to fill one or two positions there. Croatia's participation and use of the Battlefield Information Collection and Exploitation Systems (BICES) was also a positive development. DefMin Vukelic Discusses Peacekeeping Missions and the Region ¶12. (C) Vukelic thanked the USG for its help during the NATO accession process and praised the excellent bilateral cooperation between the two countries. Vukelic noted that the strong relationship was demonstrated by the fact that Croatia's third Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team (OMLT) in ISAF was a joint one with the Minnesota National Guard. Clapper thanked Croatia for its contributions to peacekeeping missions around the world, especially ISAF, and noted that Croatia's contributions were highly valued. Vukelic said that including ISAF, Croatia participated in 16 peacekeeping missions. Croatia planned to send two helicopters and 20 troops to participate in KFOR in June, its first peacekeeping mission in the region. ¶13. (C) Looking more broadly at the region, Vukelic said that Croatia tried to support its neighbors with Euro-Atlantic integration since it benefited all the countries in Southeast Europe. He said that the current border dispute with Slovenia sent the wrong message to the region. If Croatia, which was currently the furthest along in the EU accession process, was blocked, then other countries would see it as a sign that the EU would not accept them. ¶14. (C) In addition to meeting with President Mesic and Defense Minister Vukelic, U/S Clapper with his delegation also exchanged views on the region and intelligence cooperation during lunch with Minister of Interior Tomislav Karamarko and Security and Intelligence Agency (SOA) Director Josip Buljevic. ¶15. (U) U/S Clapper has not cleared this cable. BRADTKE