LOCAL ELECTION RUN-OFFS CONFIRM RELATIVE STRENGTHS

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000312 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV HR SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTION RUN-OFFS CONFIRM RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF RULING HDZ AND OPPOSITION SDP PARTIES REF: A. ZAGREB 229 ¶B. ZAGREB 276 ¶C. MEGES-WESTLEY 3/12/2009 E-MAIL ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Runoff elections for several mayoral races and county executives on May 31 generally mirrored the results of the first round elections held two weeks earlier. All parties -- again -- are claiming victory, as the main opposition parties tout their strength in the cities and the largest parties of the ruling coalition their dominance in the rural areas. The ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) is highlighting its record number of county prefects, while the main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), took the mayoral race in the Croatian capital of Zagreb. Meanwhile, two regional parties solidified their strongholds in Istria and Slavonia. END SUMMARY URBAN-RURAL DIVIDE PART II ¶2. (U) In keeping with the results of the first round held on May 17, the second round run-off in select cities and counties provided results that allow both the HDZ and SPD to claim important victories. The HDZ carried a total of 10 county prefect races, and with its main coalition partner at the national level, the Croatian Peasant Party (HSS),will hold 13 of 20 county prefects nationwide. The SDP incumbent, Milan Bandic, comfortably captured another term as mayor in the capital city of Zagreb. While the SDP lost close mayoral races in Sisak and Velika Gorica, where they had been expected to win, its candidate registered an upset in Vukovar, while its coalition partner, the Croatian People,s Party, won Dubrovnik. REGIONAL PARTY,S DEEPEN CONTROL ¶3. (U) In eastern Croatian, the Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB) -- a right wing party formed by former HDZ heavyweight and convicted war criminal Branimir Glavas -- defended its majority in the county assembly, held onto the prefect's office, and won the Osijek mayor's office for the first time. The HDSSB campaign turned decidedly caustic after Glavas' conviction on war crimes charges in early May and his flight to Bosnia to avoid serving his sentence. HDSSB campaign rallies turned into rants against the government and the "politically biased" judicial system, and played for sympathy among the war veterans and the war-affected population of the east. In western Croatia the Istrian Democratic Party (IDS),having already won the mayorship of Pula in the first round, decisively won the county prefect race. The win in Istria County makes IDS president Ivan Jakovic the longest serving county prefect in Croatia. ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: The second round results confirmed the strengths of the HDZ (rural votes) and the SDP (urban voters) generally seen in the first round (reftels). While there were a few surprises in some of the smaller mayoral races, they were evenly split between the HDZ and SDP and so deprived either party the opportunity to claim a lopsided victory. However, given the political headwinds--poor economy, stalled EU accession process, and Glavas conviction fiasco--for the ruling HDZ, the electoral draw at the local level should be seen as a pretty good result for the Prime Minister. END COMMENT BRADTKE