LOCAL ELECTIONS HIGHLIGHT STRENGTHS OF BIG PARTIES

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000276 SENSITIVE SIPDIS FOR EUR/SCE AND EUR/PPD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV HR SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS HIGHLIGHT STRENGTHS OF BIG PARTIES REF: A. 09ZAGREB268 ¶B. 09ZAGREB229 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: High turnout marked Sundays, local elections and the results contrasted the differing strengths between the two largest parties. The ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) along with coalition partners won the largest number of county prefects and should hold sway in nearly fifteen of twenty county assemblies. The main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (SDP),did well in mayoral races in many of Croatia,s largest cities. Leaders of both the HDZ and SDP said the results were in line with their expectations and that they were pleased with the results. Election observers noted no serious irregularities and there have been no accusations of fraud by any of the major parties in Croatia. Several city and county races did not have clear winner -- a candidate receiving more than 50 percent of the vote -- meaning those ballots will go to a second round run-off election on Sunday, May 31 between the top two candidates. END SUMMARY NO REAL SURPISES ¶2. (U) As expected, the HDZ with its main coalition partner the Croatian Peasant Party (HSS) won, or is likely to win in the runoff, as many as fourteen out of twenty county prefect positions. The HDZ-HSS ticket cleanly won the county prefect race in Bjelovar, Koprivnica, Lika, Virovitica, Vukovar, Zagreb County, and Zadar, and is well positioned to win the prefect in the second round run-off in Brod-Posavina, Dubrovnik, Karlovac, Sibenik, and Split. The HDZ-HSS mayoral candidates in Croatia's four largest cities (Zagreb, Split, Rijeka, and Osijek) gained few votes, however, with none even making it into a second round. Senior HDZ members downplayed the defeats in the big cities and noted that HDZ was strong at the county level and in smaller cities, winnning around 50 percent of all mayors and city council seats. ¶3. (U) The SDP won a landslide in Croatia,s third largest town, Rijeka, and is likely to hold on to the mayor,s job in the capital city of Zagreb, which will be decided in a runoff between the incumbent SDP mayor, Milan Bandic, and an independent candidate. SDP leader Zoran Milanovic characterized the election results as excellent and stressed the SDP,s strong showing in all the major city council races. The SDP is going to push hard to win the run-off election in Split, Croatia,s second largest city and Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's hometown, where SDP heavyweight Ranko Ostojic will face off with independent business magnate Zeljko Kerum. NO SERIOUS ELECTORAL IRREGULARITIES ¶4. (U) Election monitors trained by Croatia,s main democracy-oriented NGO, GONG, noted only a few minor deviations from Croatia,s voting laws. The NGO indicated that many of the major parties violated the 24 pre-election silence period by continuing to hand out flyers and send text-messages to supporters. Similarly, there were no significant cases of ethnic discrimination. Several bus loads of ethnic Serbs travelled from Serbia and elsewhere in the region to Croatia to vote in municipalities where they have registered property and voting rights, largely without incident. One bus which carried Serbs from Bosnia to Knin to vote was stoned in a parking lot and sustained about $1500 worth of damage; the bus was empty at the time of the incident and no one was injured. ¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: The election results contained no real surprises. Despite economic headwinds, the main parties of the ruling coalition, the HDZ and HSS, avoided any serious electoral setback and actually made some modest gains at the county-level. The SDP, while it could not translate the poor economy into electoral gold, still has defended its major holdings and this satisfactory result will help quell discontent in the SDP ranks with Milanovic,s leadership. Both the HDZ and SDP are well positioned to claim momentum going forward and both parties will soon be turning their attention to the presidential race set to play-out in the second half of the year. END COMMENT BRADTKE