FM JANDROKOVIC EXPECTS CROATIA TO AGREE TO REHN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000215 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV SI EUC HR SUBJECT: FM JANDROKOVIC EXPECTS CROATIA TO AGREE TO REHN PROPOSAL FOR ARBITRATION OF BORDER DISPUTE WITH SLOVENIA REF: BRADTKE-JONES 4/23/2009 E-MAIL Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolEcon Counselor, for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) FM Goran Jandrokovic told the Ambassador on April 24 that the latest Rehn proposal for sending the Croatia-Slovenia border dispute to arbitration and to de-block Croatia's accession negotiations was a good and balanced one. Croatia had one concern about a reference to "Slovenian contact with international water", but Jandrokovic thought that the inclusion of this phrase in the section regarding the regime governing the bay, rather than in the section regarding actual demarcation of the border, meant that it could be accepted. The GoC was currently holding internal consultations on precisely that question. The Ambassador said the U.S. was encouraged by the progress this week in Brussels, and hoped that the latest version would prove acceptable to both sides. At the same time, he urged caution in public statements to avoid provoking any negative reaction in Ljubljana. He added that he would seek to meet with PM Sanader and President Mesic next week to reiterate those messages. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) FM Jandrokovic said that the newest Rehn proposal was far better than earlier versions from the Croatian perspective. He described the current proposal as follows: -- An arbitration panel of five people would named; one by Slovenia, one by Croatia, and three by mutual agreement of both countries. If the two countries could not agree on the three nominees, then they would be named by the President of the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Jandrokovic said that Rehn told the Croats he would prefer that the nominees be European nationals eligible to serve at the ICJ. -- the panel would decide on the borderline (land and sea) on the basis of international law. -- the panel would also decide on a regime for the use of the relevant maritime resources and Slovenian contact with international waters on the basis of international law, equity and good neighborly relations. -- at the same time that the two countries sign on to the arbitration arrangement, they would also agree to a declaration stating that Croatia's EU accession negotiations on the blocked chapters would re-start as soon as the arbitration agreement had been accepted by both parliaments. The Rehn text was a bit unclear on precisely which chapters had to be unblocked (reportedly referring only to chapters relevant to the border issues),but Rehn told the GoC that the Commission's red-line was that it had to be at least 12 chapters. -- the arbitration process is planned to last one year. (NOTE: This version has a few more details, but is consistent with, the description of the package given to the Ambassador by EC Head of Delegation Vincent Degert on April 23 (REF). END NOTE.) ¶3. (C) Jandrokovic described the proposal as "well-balanced." He said the only question the Croatian side had was regarding the reference to Slovenian "contact" with international waters. The Croatian position was that the word "contact" only applied in the context of the regime to be agreed for governing the Piran bay, not for the deliberations of the borderline itself. The inclusion of the word anywhere in the text, however, meant that there would need to be internal consultations within the GoC (COMMENT: we presume in particular with President Mesic. END COMMENT) before the GoC could formally accept the proposal. Jandrokovic noted, however, that he was hopeful the GoC would accept the proposal as is, including the word contact. ¶4. (C) The Ambassador noted that the U.S. had tried to be helpful in getting both sides to agreement, and that we were encouraged by the progress made in Brussels this week. We hoped that this deal would be acceptable to both sides, as it was the only game in town for resolving this quickly. He noted that conversations with EU Member State Ambassadors indicated that they felt Croatia had gotten everything it could ask for in the deal. In that regard, he asked the GoC to be careful in its statements to avoid making it more difficult for the Slovenes to also agree to the deal, since it would do no good to get an arrangement that was acceptable to Zagreb, but that Ljubljana rejected. ZAGREB 00000215 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Jandrokovic said he understood the message. He said the Slovene side had been "shocked" by the modifications, and were in a politically difficult situation since their parliamentary committee last week had voted to accept the Rehn deal, even as the details of that deal were still changing. Jandrokovic said he would continue to use measured language to describe the deal, and that the Croatians would avoid any "triumphalism", but he had felt it important to make positive statements about the discussions in Brussels and to note that the latest proposal upheld the basic principles Croatia had been espousing. This was necessary to make sure that the deal was acceptable in Zagreb. ¶6. (C) In closing, Jandrokovic noted his concern at signals from some EU Member States that they are losing interest in enlargement in general, and in Croatia's membership in particular. He was upset by comments that Croatia had bigger problems than the dispute with Slovenia, and that structural reforms in the economy or relations with the ICTY were going badly. Jandrokovic said he believed that the delays caused by Slovenia were the source of all delays in Croatia's accession process, and that projecting gloom over that problem into other areas was unfair. The Ambassador replied that all concerned continued to express a belief that accession negotiations could be concluded this year, but that Croatia did still have a great deal of work to do. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: These developments are very encouraging compared to where we were even a few days ago. While a reference to Slovenian access to, rather than contact with, international waters would have made it easier for the Croatians, it appears this could be a deal that the GoC can live with. With FM Jandrokovic's encouragement, the Ambassador will seek meetings next week with PM Sanader and President Mesic to discuss the latest Rehn proposal, and urge a constructive response. He will also reiterate the need to be very careful in public statements not to say anything that could make it harder for Ljubljana to agree as well. END COMMENT. BRADTKE