C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000215

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV SI EUC HR
SUBJECT: FM JANDROKOVIC EXPECTS CROATIA TO AGREE TO REHN
PROPOSAL FOR ARBITRATION OF BORDER DISPUTE WITH SLOVENIA

REF: BRADTKE-JONES 4/23/2009 E-MAIL

Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolEcon Counselor, for reasons 1.4 (b)
& (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) FM Goran Jandrokovic told the Ambassador on April 24
that the latest Rehn proposal for sending the
Croatia-Slovenia border dispute to arbitration and to
de-block Croatia's accession negotiations was a good and
balanced one. Croatia had one concern about a reference to
"Slovenian contact with international water", but Jandrokovic
thought that the inclusion of this phrase in the section
regarding the regime governing the bay, rather than in the
section regarding actual demarcation of the border, meant
that it could be accepted. The GoC was currently holding
internal consultations on precisely that question. The
Ambassador said the U.S. was encouraged by the progress this
week in Brussels, and hoped that the latest version would
prove acceptable to both sides. At the same time, he urged
caution in public statements to avoid provoking any negative
reaction in Ljubljana. He added that he would seek to meet
with PM Sanader and President Mesic next week to reiterate
those messages. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) FM Jandrokovic said that the newest Rehn proposal
was far better than earlier versions from the Croatian
perspective. He described the current proposal as follows:

-- An arbitration panel of five people would named; one by
Slovenia, one by Croatia, and three by mutual agreement of
both countries. If the two countries could not agree on the
three nominees, then they would be named by the President of
the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Jandrokovic said
that Rehn told the Croats he would prefer that the nominees
be European nationals eligible to serve at the ICJ.

-- the panel would decide on the borderline (land and sea) on
the basis of international law.

-- the panel would also decide on a regime for the use of the
relevant maritime resources and Slovenian contact with
international waters on the basis of international law,
equity and good neighborly relations.

-- at the same time that the two countries sign on to the
arbitration arrangement, they would also agree to a
declaration stating that Croatia's EU accession negotiations
on the blocked chapters would re-start as soon as the
arbitration agreement had been accepted by both parliaments.
The Rehn text was a bit unclear on precisely which chapters
had to be unblocked (reportedly referring only to chapters
relevant to the border issues), but Rehn told the GoC that
the Commission's red-line was that it had to be at least 12
chapters.

-- the arbitration process is planned to last one year.

(NOTE: This version has a few more details, but is
consistent with, the description of the package given to the
Ambassador by EC Head of Delegation Vincent Degert on April
23 (REF). END NOTE.)


3. (C) Jandrokovic described the proposal as "well-balanced."
He said the only question the Croatian side had was
regarding the reference to Slovenian "contact" with
international waters. The Croatian position was that the
word "contact" only applied in the context of the regime to
be agreed for governing the Piran bay, not for the
deliberations of the borderline itself. The inclusion of the
word anywhere in the text, however, meant that there would
need to be internal consultations within the GoC (COMMENT: we
presume in particular with President Mesic. END COMMENT)
before the GoC could formally accept the proposal.
Jandrokovic noted, however, that he was hopeful the GoC would
accept the proposal as is, including the word contact.


4. (C) The Ambassador noted that the U.S. had tried to be
helpful in getting both sides to agreement, and that we were
encouraged by the progress made in Brussels this week. We
hoped that this deal would be acceptable to both sides, as it
was the only game in town for resolving this quickly. He
noted that conversations with EU Member State Ambassadors
indicated that they felt Croatia had gotten everything it
could ask for in the deal. In that regard, he asked the GoC
to be careful in its statements to avoid making it more
difficult for the Slovenes to also agree to the deal, since
it would do no good to get an arrangement that was acceptable
to Zagreb, but that Ljubljana rejected.


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5. (C) Jandrokovic said he understood the message. He said
the Slovene side had been "shocked" by the modifications, and
were in a politically difficult situation since their
parliamentary committee last week had voted to accept the
Rehn deal, even as the details of that deal were still
changing. Jandrokovic said he would continue to use measured
language to describe the deal, and that the Croatians would
avoid any "triumphalism", but he had felt it important to
make positive statements about the discussions in Brussels
and to note that the latest proposal upheld the basic
principles Croatia had been espousing. This was necessary to
make sure that the deal was acceptable in Zagreb.


6. (C) In closing, Jandrokovic noted his concern at signals
from some EU Member States that they are losing interest in
enlargement in general, and in Croatia's membership in
particular. He was upset by comments that Croatia had bigger
problems than the dispute with Slovenia, and that structural
reforms in the economy or relations with the ICTY were going
badly. Jandrokovic said he believed that the delays caused
by Slovenia were the source of all delays in Croatia's
accession process, and that projecting gloom over that
problem into other areas was unfair. The Ambassador replied
that all concerned continued to express a belief that
accession negotiations could be concluded this year, but that
Croatia did still have a great deal of work to do.


7. (C) COMMENT: These developments are very encouraging
compared to where we were even a few days ago. While a
reference to Slovenian access to, rather than contact with,
international waters would have made it easier for the
Croatians, it appears this could be a deal that the GoC can
live with. With FM Jandrokovic's encouragement, the
Ambassador will seek meetings next week with PM Sanader and
President Mesic to discuss the latest Rehn proposal, and urge
a constructive response. He will also reiterate the need to
be very careful in public statements not to say anything that
could make it harder for Ljubljana to agree as well. END
COMMENT.
BRADTKE