YEREVAN DEMARCHE RESPONSE: U.S POSTURE ON IRAN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000827

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2019
TAGS: AM IS KPAL LE PINR PREL SY UNGA
SUBJECT: YEREVAN DEMARCHE RESPONSE: U.S POSTURE ON IRAN'S
NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND NEXT STEPS

REF: SECSTATE 120288

Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) On 25 November 2009, Ambassador Yovanovich delivered
reftel demarche to Vigen Sargsian, Deputy Chief of staff to
President Serzh Sargsian. Sargsian asked Ambassador how the
US Government envisioned the next steps vis-a-vis Iran.
Ambassador responded that the next steps are difficult to
predict, but that it was clearly time for Iran to take
action.


2. (C) On 27 November 2009, POLOFF also delivered reftel
demarche to Garnik Badalyan, head of the Armenian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs'Middle Eastern Department. Badalyan noted
that while Armenia recognized the need for international
pressure on Iran, the Armenian government was severely
constrained from taking any proactive measures against the
Iranian government. Specifically, Badalyan noted that
Armenia's economic, social, and cultural relationship with
Iran was simply too important for the geographically isolated
Armenia to risk damaging. Still, Badalyan noted that Armenia
was part of the international community and wanted to remain
engaged on the Iranian nuclear issue.


3. During the discussion, Badalyan provided his personal
analysis of the current Iranian regime: Iran is experiencing
a civil stagnation similar to that which was experienced in
the USSR during the Brezhnev period - those who speak out
against the regime are severely punished. Still, Badalyan
claimed most social issues were adequately addressed by the
regime, "families are doing well and people are not hungry."
Badalyan added, however, that should the regime collapse, the
resulting bloodshed will be far greater than any of us can
imagine. "Regime change in Iran always results in bloodshed."


4. Bio note: Badalyan, a fluent Farsi speaker, is considered
the MFA resident expert on Iran, having served multiple MFA
tours in Teheran, a stint in the Soviet military as a
Dari/Farsi translator during the Soviet/Afghan war, and
written numerous books on the history of Iran (two of which
were gifted to Poloff.)
YOVANOVITCH