DEFENSE, FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTERS EVASIVE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000770 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2019 TAGS: PBTS PGOV PREL MARR TU AJ AM SUBJECT: DEFENSE, FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTERS EVASIVE ON SARGSIAN'S NK VISIT REF: IIR 6 942 0006 10/ARMENIAN PRESIDENT REVIEWS TROOPS IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch, for reasons 1.4 (b,d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During separate meetings with Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian on October 27 and Foreign Affairs Minister Edward Nalbandian on October 29, the Ambassador asked the ministers about the purpose of President's recent two-day visit to Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) to inspect troops, and the uncharacteristically high-profile jabs he took at Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev while there. Both ministers answered evasively, and were at visible pains to downplay the significance and nature of the highly publicized visit. FM Nalbandian eventually told the Ambassador that the format of the trip was necessary to counteract the Diaspora and the opposition Dashnaktsutiun party criticism that the president is making secret concessions on NK. During the meeting with Defense Minister Ohanian, who accompanied the president on his NK visit, the Minister downplayed any Azerbaijani threat to NK, but instead raised concerns with what he called the ongoing "transformation" of Turkey's Third Army from a defensive to offensive force. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- NO "INSPECTION" OF NK TROOPS -- ONLY "FAMILIARIZATION" -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) During her October 27 meeting with Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian, the Ambassador raised the high-profile visit he and President Sargsian paid to Nagorno-Karabakh on October 21-22, and asked what the purpose of the visit had been. The Ambassador commented that the visit appeared more high-profile than those in the past, that the president uncharacteristically took pointed jabs at Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, and that his unfettered use of the phraseology "our troops" appeared out of character for the president. Ohanian smiled at the suggestion that there was any "message" conveyed in the nature of the visit, noting that the president did not "inspect" the troops, as the Ambassador had noted, but merely was "familiarizing" himself with them. Ohanian said such visits are routine, and were undertaken by Armenia's two previous presidents as well. Ohanian did note that "it is no secret that Armenia supports Karabakh," and that "it is in our military doctrine to ensure that the population of Karabakh lives in peace." Without specifying which borders he meant--Armenia's or those of Nagorno-Karabakh--Ohanian added that the president's visits are meant to ensure and reinforce the security of "our borders." -------------- A "REGULAR" VISIT -- WELL, NOT REALLY -------------- ¶3. (C) During the Ambassador's meeting with Foreign Minister Nalbandian on October 29, Nalbandian downplayed the purpose and conduct of the visit, echoing Ohanian in saying these were "regular" visits the president takes on a quarterly basis. (NOTE: Since assuming office on April 9, 2008, President Sargsian has made six visits to NK, including the recent one, that Post is aware of. END NOTE.) When asked if there was any special message conveyed by this trip, Nalbandian shot back that the only special messages on NK were being delivered by Azerbaijan--and not by Armenia. Then dropping his guard, Nalbandian acknowledged that the nature of the visit was "inspired" by the heat that the president has been taking from Diaspora and opposition groups, particularly the Armenian Revolutionary Federation - Dashnaktsutiun (ARF) on the normalization process with Turkey, and their suggestions that the president is making secret concessions with Azerbaijan on NK in order to appease Turkey. These critics, Nalbandian stated, also accuse President Sargsian of dropping his guard in maintaining the battle readiness of troops to defend NK. -------------- -- THREATS FROM AZERBAIJAN? NO, BUT TURKEY PERHAPS -------------- -- ¶4. (C) When asked by the Ambassador if the confrontational nature of the president's visit was motivated by a recent military development in Azerbaijan, Defense Minster Ohanian replied that Azerbaijan's astronomical defense budget and its brazen exceeding of its CFE quotas "speaks for itself" as well as "the offensive nature" of Azerbaijani intentions YEREVAN 00000770 002 OF 002 vis-a-vis settlement of the NK conflict. Ohanian sought to downplay any Armenian concerns over Azerbaijan's defense build-up, however, asserting that "we manage to maintain a balance between Azerbaijan's quantity and the quality of our armed forces." ¶5. (C) Interestingly, Ohanian independently raised the subject of Turkey's Third Army in eastern Turkey, saying that the GOAM had noticed it was transforming its Cold War-era defensive function to one that has offensive capabilities. When asked if he thought this was directed at Armenia, Ohanian initially demurred, and said that it probably had more to do with Turkey's perceptions of a Kurdish threat coming out of Iraq and the fact that the Third Army no longer needed to serve as a defensive deterrent against a Soviet invasion. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Contrary to what his ministers want us to believe, President Sargsian's latest visit to NK was definitely not a "regular" one. This was evidenced by its high level of media attention; the "inspection" of "our troops;" the president's long, off-the-cuff remarks delivered to media in field fatigues; the out-of-character personal jabs he took at Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev; and the wreath-laying at the memorial to the Armenian-American war hero Monte Melkonian. It appears clear to Post that the visit was directed at multiple audiences: Azerbaijan, Diaspora and domestic opponents, and Armenian populations in Armenia and NK. The message, however, is harder to ascertain; whether this was to reassure his Armenian constituencies (in NK, Armenia, and the Diaspora) of no secret concessions, lay down a new marker to Azerbaijan, or a combination of both, is hard to tell. One thing is certain, however, Sargsian does not want to look vulnerable on the one issue he cannot afford to mishandle: Nagorno-Karabakh. YOVANOVITCH