ON THE TURKEY-ARMENIA BORDER: IS THE RAILWAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000712

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2019
TAGS: PREL ECIN ELTN PBTS SOCI TU AM
SUBJECT: ON THE TURKEY-ARMENIA BORDER: IS THE RAILWAY
REALLY READY TO GO?

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch. Reasons 1
.4(b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The Ambassador and EXBS Advisor toured the
Akhurian Train station near the Turkish border, where
Armenian railway officials claimed that they are ready to
begin rail traffic as soon as the border opens and procedures
are established. Our assessment, however, is that much work
would need to be done on the Armenian side before significant
cargo and passenger traffic could begin. The prevailing view
of NGO representatives and others in Shirak Marz,
northwestern Armenia, is that the open border would be very
positive for the marz - a catalyst to revive a failing
economy. A few expressed concerns that new Turkish
competition would drive Armenian merchants out of business.
END SUMMARY.


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CIVIL SOCIETY MOSTLY READY, BUT SOME NERVOUS
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2. (C) At a roundtable of NGO leaders and press in Gyumri,
the capital city of Shirak Marz, all present told the
Ambassador that they wanted the Turkey-Armenia border to open
up, although some expressed reservations. One NGO
representative qualified his answer by stating that Armenia
is not ready yet, and that the open border could be
destructive to the economy, while a journalist commented that
ordinary people would not benefit -- only the wealthy
oligarchs. A recent poll, another journalist said, showed
50-55 percent of respondents in the marz supporting an open
border, with 20-25 percent opposed. The Ambassador shared
her positive outlook by stating that some companies might
fail and some individuals might lose their jobs, but the
overall outcome would be economic growth and there would be
new opportunities in a growing economy.


3. (C) The Director of Gala TV said that every reasonable
person agrees that open borders are better. He said that
those who worry that the flood of Turkish goods will ruin
Armenian businesses do not understand economics. He believes
one of the roles the media should play is to educate and
inform the public on these issues. He stated that for the
past 2-3 months, his station has been airing programs,
interviews, and debates on the Turkey-Armenia border topic.

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RAILWAY COMPANY READY AND WAITING FOR SIGNING
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4. (C) During an on-site tour of the Akhurian 1 Railway
Station, located 3km east of the Turkish border, the
Ambassador discussed the possible border opening with
officials of the South Caucasus Railway Company (SCRC),a
wholly owned subsidiary of the Russian Railways Public
Company since 2008. Although the railway has been idle since
1993, the official expressed confidence that trains could
begin rolling as soon as border procedures and protocols were
ironed out. While the company will not undertake
refurbishments until a border agreement is signed (vice
ratified),some checks and track maintenance have already
been done. The tracks were inspected in August 2008 when
rumors began circulating that President Gul might travel by
rail to the September 6, 2008 Turkey-Armenia World Cup
qualifying match in Yerevan.


5. (C) The tracks running throughout Armenia are of a wider
gauge than those in use in Turkey, which are the narrow size
used throughout Europe. A narrow set of tracks crosses the
actual border and follows the three kilometers to the
Akhurian Station, where the narrow tracks meet the wider
tracks. As in the past, Armenian officials assume passengers
would have to change cars, and cargo would have to be lifted
onto new cars by cranes. One of the station's two large
cranes needs to be refurbished, the other replaced, according
to the SCRC officials.



6. (C) The GOAM Ministry of Transportation has already
started the application process for membership in the
International Organization for International Carriage by Rail
(OTIF),headquartered in Bern, the Ambassador was told. The
OTIF governs rail traffic throughout Europe, and Armenia
would need to become a member to engage in rail interchange
with Turkey. Once this is complete and the border is open,
SCRC officials assert that traffic could begin to flow. They
said they would work with the Turks on procedures and
technology once the border opens. They claim to have enough
cars to begin transporting goods and passengers. They would
need to expand in ensuing years, but categorically denied

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rumors that the SCRC is buying railcars from Poland. They
claimed that by 2015 they could be transporting 350,000 to
600,000 tons of cargo per year -- not only goods destined for
Armenia, but some going to Russia and Azerbaijan as well.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) We noted that the railway company claimed it would go
forward with a preliminary renovation of station
infrastructure and tracks after the border agreement signing,
but before a potentially lengthy and uncertain ratification
process. Our visit gave us the impression that there is much
more work to be done than railway officials would admit. EXBS
Advisor noted, for example, that the two cranes in place
appeared beyond salvageable, and assessed that installation
of new lifting equipment would be a lengthy and costly
project. Additionally, the customs warehouse has been
scavenged for every viable part and is not ready to handle
freight. The main access road to the station -- a
single-lane, unimproved gravel road -- would need to be
widened and paved in order to handle the expected traffic
flow of a working rail station. It was unclear who would
fund this investment and how much time these refurbishments
would require.


8. (C) We will be meeting with railway and government
officials in coming weeks to get a more precise assessment of
infrastructure, training, and other requirements necessary to
establish a fully functioning rail crossing, and separate
road crossings. In order to provide WMD controls at the
Armenian side of the rail crossing, Embassy would require
EXBS funding for an estimated additional $250,000 worth of
border monitoring equipment, including radiation portal
monitors, hand-held radiation identifiers, radiation pagers,
computer and communications hardware, and inspection
equipment and tools. We would expect at least two road
crossings to open as well as the rail crossing. Any road
crossings would require a similar or higher investment in
monitoring equipment. The funding for any crossings along
the Turkish-Armenian border is presently not in the EXBS
Yerevan program budget. Absent a special supplemental
appropriation, these equipment donations could require up to
a year before funds could be made available. END COMMENT.

YOVANOVITCH