ARMENIA'S OPPONENTS TO PROTOCOLS RATCHET UP THEIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000687

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIA'S OPPONENTS TO PROTOCOLS RATCHET UP THEIR
RHETORIC

REF: A. YEREVAN 638

B. YEREVAN 623

C. YEREVAN 622

D. YEREVAN 617

E. YEREVAN 611

F. YEREVAN 610

Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Less than two weeks before Armenia's and Turkey's
foreign ministers are to sign their agreed protocols to
establish bilateral relations, domestic and Diaspora
opponents of President Sargsian's rapprochement policy are
ratcheting up their rhetoric against the protocols and the
President. As has been the case since April 22 when Turkey
and Armenia declared their intentions to pursue a roadmap to
normalize relations, the most vocal critics include the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation - Dashnaktsutiun
(Dashnaks),ex-foreign minister Vartan Oskanian, and
Armenia's Diaspora. The Dashnaks warned Sargsian that his
hold on power could be at stake if he proceeds with the
protocols as drafted. Oskanian roundly slammed the protocols
and authorities' handling of the domestic debate as
"unforgivable, insulting, and dangerous." And the Diaspora
reminded authorities that "genocide" recognition should
transcend and not be sacrificed for any immediate diplomatic
consideration. END SUMMARY.

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DASHNAKS WARN SARGSIAN, INSIST ON CHANGES TO PROTOCOLS
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2. (SBU) On September 16, Hrant Markarian, the de facto head
of the nationalist and newly opposition Armenian
Revolutionary Federation - Dashnaktsutiun (Dashnaks) party
issued a warning to President Sargsian that he could fall
from power if he proceeded with the signing of the protocols
with Turkey. Markarian added, "you must not cut the tree
branch on which you are sitting." Markarian said that a deal
concluded with Turkey based on the existing terms of the
protocols could be the last straw for a public increasingly
dissatisfied with Sargsian's government, stating that "the
people would sooner or later hold him accountable, and the
price would be heavy." In spite of Markarian's stark warnings
to the President, the Dashnaks have yet to call for his
resignation, opting for now only to call for the resignation
of the foreign minister.


3. (SBU) On September 15, the Dashnaks launched protest
actions they had previewed earlier in the week.
Approximately 50 Dashnak members (a number designed to keep
below the 100-person limit when permission must be sought for
a demonstration) camped outside the Prime Minister's office
building located in Republic Square, erecting banners that
read "NO to preconditions" in English. The participants can
be rowdy, with some shouting "traitor" whenever the Foreign
Minister appears. Two dozen other Dashnaks began a
collective hunger strike outside the nearby foreign ministry
building. The Dashnaks said the hunger strike would be a
symbolic one, with members taking turns in refusing food for
two days. Security has been accordingly beefed-up.


4. (SBU) On September 14, the Dashnaks issued a statement
that read: "We do not object to the policy of establishing
relations and opening the border with Turkey, but we say no
the preconditions trampling on the rights of future
generations and threatening the security of our state and
people. We insist on making drastic changes in the
protocols." The Dashnak sit-ins are continuing
around-the-clock, and the party claims it has collected over
40,000 signatures from passers-by. The Dashnaks are
organizing a large demonstration on September 30, one day
before the October 1 parliamentary debate.


5. (C) In a September 15 discussion with the DCM, Giro
Manoyan, head of the Dashnaks' Hay Dat (Armenian Cause)
Department, fumed that the president "will pay a price" if he
proceeds with the protocols as drafted and gets parliament to
support him. When the DCM asked what kind of price Sargsian
would have to pay, and whether it was a political one,
Manoyan paused but, rather ominously, declined to respond.
In a separate conversation with the Ambassador the following
day, FM Nalbandian expressed concerns about his physical
security, something we had not heard from him for months.
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EX-FM OSKANIAN SLAMS PROTOCOLS AS "UNFORGIVABLE"
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6. (SBU) On September 8, Vartan Oskanian, Armenia's foreign
minister from 1998-2009 and currently the director of the
Yerevan-based Civilitas Foundation think tank, published a
bitter critique of the protocols entitled "Getting This Wrong
Will Be Unforgivable." Oskanian first slammed the
authorities' handling of the domestic debate on the
protocols, sniping that it is "hugely insulting that
high-level officials can be this dismissive and trivializing
on a matter that is so critical for our people." Oskanian
then slammed the Armenian government for the "badly
formulated" protocols, arguing that rapprochement has been
negotiated "poorly and dangerously," and that "it is
irresponsible of our government to force our people to make
such choices about our present and future." Oskanian
directed his ire in particular at the government's alleged
betrayal of Armenian territorial claims and willingness to
set aside demands for genocide recognition. Oskanian has
made numerous public appearances and hosted a discussion on
September 22 where he vigorously pursued the same themes.

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HERITAGE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR REFERENDUM
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7. (SBU) Leaders of the opposition Heritage Party, which
holds just seven seats in the 131-member parliament,
continued their calls to submit any agreement with Turkey to
a national referendum. Heritage also said the referendum
should be accompanied by a vote of confidence in President
Sargsian. In response to these demands, PM Sargsian replied
during a September 16 question-and-answer session with MPs
that it was "premature" to consider a referendum as the
president was carrying out his foreign policy initiative. The
opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) is generally
positive about rapprochement, with the exception of the
provision for a historical committee. However, the ANC is
taking a back seat on the issue, with many assuming that ANC
Levon Ter-Petrossian hopes that Sargsian will make a fatal
error that he can use to his advantage.

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FM NALBANDIAN TELLS PARLIAMENT PROTOCOLS CAN'T BE ALTERED
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8. (SBU) On September 16, Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian
told a session of parliament that the protocols on
establishing and developing relations between Armenia and
Turkey cannot be changed. Dashnak leader Vahan Hovhannisian
protested that the six weeks devoted by Turkey's and
Armenia's governments were not, as described, intended for
public discussions, but rather for the publics to "become
informed," with it now clear to him that the Armenia's
parliament would have no way to propose changes to the
protocols. (NOTE: The Dashnaks' disappointment on this point
has not prevented them from producing and distributing a
booklet proposing detailed changes to virtually every
provision in the two documents. END NOTE.)

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PRESIDENT'S POLITICAL CONSULTATIONS
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9. (SBU) On September 17, President Sargsian and FM
Nalbandian held five-hour-long political consultations to
discuss the protocols with approximately 52 leaders of
political parties he had invited on September 14. The
President characterized the meeting as "extremely difficult."
The opposition led by the Armenian National Congress
boycotted the consultations, deriding them as a farce.
According to the presidency, all 50 or so leaders had the
opportunity to present their views on the protocols.
According to reports, the talks "deepened" Dashnak concerns
over rapprochement." Armen Rustamian, a representative on
the Dashnaks' Supreme Body, told reporters after the
consultations that "we continue to state that the documents
(protocols) convey preconditions. Moreover, we state that
after the protocols are ratified, Armenian-Turkish
rapprochement will be determined in favor of Turkey."

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DIASPORA CHIMES IN
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10. (C) The largest, most vocal, best-organized, and most
well-funded Armenian-American, the Armenian National
Committee of America (ANCA) has made its strong opposition to
the protocols well known. "Genocide" recognition is the
first priority for the ANCA, and it has relentlessly
campaigned against normalization on the grounds that it would
undercut efforts aimed at achieving "genocide" recognition.
Although previously more passive (and more moderate),the
Armenian General Benevolent Union (AGBU),the Armenian
Assembly of America (AAA),and the Eastern and Western
Diocese Church of America wrote a joint letter to President
Obama that forthrightly said "we support normalization of
relations between Armenia and Turkey without preconditions."
Adhering closely to GOAM policy, the letter also indicated
concerns about Turkish intentions and the importance of
Qurkey-Armenia n (###)
egotiations.
Hayrapetian is quoted as saying, "In my view, the Diaspora
has no right to interfere in Armenia's internal affairs. If
they want to interfere, they should move here, become
citizens of Armenia and share our yoke."

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COMMENT
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12. (C) Despite the sound and fury coming from some quarters,
a clear-eyed assessment of the protocols' parliamentary
prospects indicates Sargsian has the votes for ratification
(ref C). Some opposition figures privately acknowledge as
much (septel). Still, the GOAM leadership does seem
unsettled. In part, this may reflect a recognition that,
despite repeated public insistence to the contrary,
Turkey-Armenia rapprochement is related to Nagorno-Karabakh
-- an area where a Sargsian misstep actually could threaten
his hold on power (ref H). Also, given the history of
extreme Armenian nationalists using violence as a form of
political action, Sargsian may be harboring some anxieties
about his own physical security. The fact that, on the day
of the parliamentary hearings October 1, Sargsian is setting
out on a Diaspora road show to visit Armenian communities in
Paris, New York, Los Angeles, Beirut, and Rostov-on-Don is
also telling (or at least symbolic). To the President,
parliamentary processes represent mere formalities, and
domestic criticism can be overcome with the help of
state-controlled media and the security services. The
dissatisfaction of large segments of the Diaspora and the
possible withdrawal of its support, however, represents a
greater and less controllable threat. It will be key during
his outreach abroad for the President to invigorate the
"silent majority" of diasporans who support normalization and
sideline his more vocal critics.

PENNINGTON