RAFFI HOVHANNISIAN QUITS ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT

UNCLAS YEREVAN 000623 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL AM SUBJECT: RAFFI HOVHANNISIAN QUITS ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) On September 7, the Armenian media quoted undisclosed sources within the opposition Heritage party to report the surprise resignation of party leader, Raffi Hovhannisian, from the National Assembly. Heritage faction leader Armen Martirosian confirmed to POLFSN on September 8 that Hovhannisian had submitted his resignation letter to the Speaker of the National Assembly, though explanations for the move were in short supply. The official reason, according to Martirosian, was that the resignation was "personal and related to crucial national issues," adding "I know it doesn't mean much to you, and it doesn't to me either, but that's what he told us." ¶2. (SBU) Many observers, including those within the party, were left scratching their heads. Heritage faction Secretary Stepan Safarian confided to POLFSN his bewilderment at the decision of their leader, saying party members learned of Hovhannisian's decision the same day it appeared in the news. Safarian noted that the party recently held an internal discussion and decided to keep its mandates (ordered list of members filling Heritage's eight seats),"so this must be Raffi's personal decision that he made regardless of ours. Raffi is a combination of an Armenian and American politician, so maybe you'll understand him better than I do". ¶3. (SBU) Some interlocutors believe Hovhannisian's move was related to his disapproval of the Armenia-Turkey rapprochement protocols publicized on August 31. Others think he is using the protocols as an excuse to stay out of the public debate in order to "save" himself for the next presidential election. The next person on the Heritage party list is the Deputy Chair of the party Movses Arestakesian, a relative unknown in Armenian politics. ¶4. (SBU) COMMENT: Rectifying the historic injustices committed against the Armenian population in early 20th century Turkey (what he refers to as "the great dispossession") has been the Hovhannisian's cause clhbre throughout his professional career -- as independent Armenia's first Foreign Minister, as founder and director of a prominent think tank, and then as political party founder and aspirant for the Armenian presidency. A sharp critic of the GOAM's rapprochement policy that he thought was selling out "the cause," it appears the Hovhannisian could not stomach the recently signed Turkish-Armenian protocols. That said, his resignation remains puzzling. A principled resignation to protest a policy would make sense if one were a member of the ruling party. In Hovhannisian's case, however, it isn't yet clear what statement he hopes to make in resigning from the sole -- and miniscule -- opposition faction in Parliament. The idea that Hovhanissian is "saving" himself for a presidential run seems farfetched. By opting out of one of the most important debates in Armenia's political history, it seems more likely that Hovhanissian is taking a step toward political irrelevance. PENNINGTON