SMALL CROWD, FEW SURPRISES AT DASHNAK RALLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000617

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AJ AM TU
SUBJECT: SMALL CROWD, FEW SURPRISES AT DASHNAK RALLY

Classified By: CDA Joseph Pennington. Reasons 1.4 (b/d)

1.(C) SUMMARY: The September 2 protest rally by the
ARF/Dashkaktsutyun party drew a crowd of about 500 supporters
to downtown Yerevan. Party leaders repeated their concerns
that President Sargsian is prepared to give away too much in
an effort to establish relations with Turkey and resolve the
Nagorno Karabakh conflict. They called for the resignation of
Foreign Minister Nalbandian and warned they would push for
the President's resignation if he formally adopted the Madrid
Principles. END SUMMARY.

TURNOUT SMALL, UNENTHUSIASTIC
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2. (SBU) On September 2, the 18th Anniversary of NK's
self-declared independence, the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation-Dashnaktsutyun Party (Dashnaks) rallied
approximately 500 supporters in central Yerevan to again
condemn President Sargsian's policy on Turkey and warn
against any deal on Nagorno Karabakh that would deny the
region's aspirations for independence. Dashnak leaders
criticized the recently published protocols on Armenia-Turkey
relations and claimed that the Sargsian administration had
agreed to make additional concessions to Azerbaijan as part
of the deal to resolve the dispute over Nagorno Karabakh.
Vahan Hovannisian, leader of the Dashnak faction in the
National Assembly, stated "Even after these protocols were
published, the Turkish Foreign Minister reminded Azerbaijan
that its interests would be taken into account at all stages
of Armenia-Turkey rapprochement. Thus they will either try to
force us to our knees by demanding concessions, or the road
will simply remain closed."


3. (SBU) The rally speakers declared that all of Turkey's
well-known preconditions are reflected in the text of the
protocols. According to Hovhannisian, Turkey wants Armenians
to stop pushing for recognition of "genocide" and to
acknowledge the territorial integrity of Turkey, thus
accepting the Treaty of Kars, to which Armenia had not been a
signatory. As to the third precondition, regarding
Nagorno-Karabakh, Hovhannisian was confident that "Turkey
expects one-sided concessions to satisfy Azerbaijan's
appetite."

DRIVEN BY A SOCCER SCHEDULE?
--------------


4. (C) Speakers also asserted that the six weeks given for
internal discussions was not a coincidence. The time period
coincides with the October 14 World Cup qualifier match in
Turkey, thereby leaving the door open for Sargsian to attend.
The Dashnaks also noted that October 13 was the date when
the Kars Treaty was signed, and therefore a symbolic day for
the Turks. Lastly, rally speakers pointed out that the
"Armenian Genocide Resolution" was still on the agenda of the
U.S. Congress, and that Turkish policy was to stop it by all
means possible. (Note: The six-week timeframe also coincides
with the period when the Minsk Group co-Chairs are expected
to present a revised version of the Madrid Principles to the
Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents. End Note).

ARMENIA LOSING GROUND
--------------


5. (C) According to Vahan Hovhannisian, the process of
Armenia-Turkey rapprochement has so far only served the
interests of Turkey. As a result, the process of worldwide
recognition of the Armenian Genocide has been frozen; the
international credibility of Turkey has grown significantly;
Turkey has become a member of UN Security Council; and its
prospects for E.U. membership have improved. Concurrently,
Hovhannisian has seen only losses for Armenia such as U.S.
President Obama's "backpedaling" by not using the term
"genocide" in his April 24 remarks, the recent UN Appeals
Court decision denying compensation to victims due to lack of
such recognition by the USG, Russia's apathy toward Armenian
interests, and the Diaspora's alienation from Armenia. As a
result of the above signs of weakness, Hovhannisian stated
that Georgia was daring to push back its border with Armenia
and for the first time a Turkish diplomat actually insulted
an Armenian President, advising him to "take a plane to
Turkey" for the game (instead of coming over a border the
GOAM has expressed hope would open in time for the match).


6. (C) In his speech, Dashnak MP Ara Nranian questioned the
oft-promised benefits to the Armenian economy of opening the
Armenian-Turkish border. According to Nranian, the Armenian
market could not withstand growing Turkish economic influence
in the region. Meanwhile, Armen Rustamian, Representative of
the ARF Supreme Body and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs
Commission in the National Assembly, declared that Armenian
officials had ignored the national security priorities of

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their country and are allowing themselves to fall into a
Turkish-Azerbaijani trap. Rustamian also questioned why the
protocol obliges both sides to open the border when it was
Turkey that closed it unilaterally. As to NK, Rustamian
reiterated the importance of involving NK leadership in the
OSCE-brokered negotiations and pursuing the territory's
independence as an Armenian foreign policy goal.

ARF: FOREIGN MINISTER SHOULD RESIGN
--------------


7. (SBU) Rustamian repeated ARF demands for the resignation
of Foreign Minister Nalbandian, which he said would be a
direct (and presumably welcome) signal to the whole world
that Armenia is changing the course of its foreign policy.
Hovhannisian also mentioned that the party would use the
six-week period of review to expose the potential "landmines"
existing in the Turkey-Armenia protocol and find ways to
eliminate them. On NK, he added that the Dashnaktutyun Party
would push for Sargsian's resignation if he officially
adopted the Madrid Principles.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) The strong Dashnak opposition to Turkey-Armenia
normalization comes as no surprise. But if the small rally
turnout and level of engagement of the crowd is any
indication, the Dashnaks' warnings have not yet captured the
attention of the wider population. The audience consisted of
a core group of about 200 persons close to the stage who were
paying attention, with the rest teenagers who appeared to be
little more than curious onlookers. The Dashnaks will
continue to press their case through their media outlets
here, and will no doubt enlist the support of diaspora groups
in an effort to whip up popular sentiment against the deal
with Turkey. The Dashnaks' arguments will be echoed by the
opposition Heritage Party and, to a lesser extent, Levon
Ter-Petrossian's Armenian National Congress. Whether this
will be enough to turn Armenians against the President's
Turkey policy remains to be seen, though at this moment it
seems unlikely. The equation could change, however, once
other heavyweights -- former President Kocharian and former
FM Oskanian, for example -- take a firm position on the
protocols. On NK, however, the President has little room for
maneuver, as any perceived concessions will be seen as giving
in to Turkish pressure to link NK with the Turkey-Armenia
process. END COMMENT
PENNINGTON