CURIOUS STATISTICS FROM YEREVAN'S MAYORAL ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000429 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR DRL AND EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KJUS AM SUBJECT: CURIOUS STATISTICS FROM YEREVAN'S MAYORAL ELECTION REFS: YEREVAN 395 YEREVAN 390 YEREVAN 388 YEREVAN 382 YEREVAN 372 YEREVAN 00000429 001.2 OF 002 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Analysis of the results of the May 31 Mayoral Election in Yerevan displays a curious pattern: voter turnout was highest in the Territorial Electoral Commissions (TECs) most ridden with allegations of fraud. This is most apparent in the results of TECs 7 and 8, which comprise the troubled district of Malatia-Sebastia. Conversely, the opposition Armenian National Congress' (ANC) results show that the ANC performed best where voter turnout was lowest, most likely because these TECs were not the main targets of ballot stuffing and other forms of electoral fraud. Also interesting was the fact that the ANC won only five precincts out of a total 439 throughout Yerevan, a steep drop-off from the 80-plus it won in the disputed 2008 presidential election. In spite of these statistical oddities, it is impossible to know whether fraud had a significant impact on the election's final outcome. End Summary. -------------- VOTER TURNOUT HIGHEST IN FRADULENT DISTRICTS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In both TECs 7 and 8 (which cover all of Malatia-Sebastia and parts of the adjacent Shengavit and Ajapnyak districts),over 40 of their combined 66 precincts recorded voter turnout of over 60 percent, compared to an overall average turnout of 53.5 percent. (Note: Some of the precincts topped 70, 80, and 90 percent in voter turnout. See below. End Note.) One of the post-election arguments aired by the winning Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) was that the fraud was limited and could not have had a significant impact on the election's outcome. However, had the CEC invalidated the results of all 66 of the precincts in TEC 7 and 8, RPA votes would have shrunk from 47 percent to 42 percent overall, thereby calling into question whether their real winning margin was one that got them over the forty percent threshold necessary to capture the mayor's seat. Also, had the results in TEC 7 and 8 been thrown out, RPA would have seen their number of city council seats dip from 35 to 32, while Prosperous Armenia's (PA) seats would have risen from 17 to 19, and those of ANC's from from 13 to 14. ¶3. (SBU) TECs 1, 7, 8, 11 and 12 registered the highest voter turnouts, with TECs 7-8 in Malatia-Sebastia leading the way: TEC 7, 71 percent average turnout; TEC 8, 66 percent; TEC 11, 57 percent; TEC 12, 56 percent; and TEC 1, 53 percent. These turnout figures correlated strongly to the TECs with the highest vote percentages going to the RPA: TEC 1, 63 percent voted for the RPA TEC 11, 56 percent TECs 6, 10 and 12, 48 percent TEC 7, 46 percent TEC 8, 45 percent -------------- ANC STRONGEST IN TECS WITH LOWEST TURNOUT -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The results of the opposition ANC show that the ANC performed best where voter turnout was lowest, most likely because these TECs were not the main targets of ballot stuffing and other forms of electoral fraud. The ANC took second place in TECs 1, 4, 9, 10 and 13, where it tied for second with PA. The TECs with the lowest voter turnouts were the following: TEC 9, 52 percent (seventh); TEC 10, 48 percent (eleventh); TEC 4, 45 percent (twelfth); and TEC 13, 44 percent (thirteenth[v1]). Also of note is that the ANC won only five out of Yerevan's 439 total voting precincts, a steep drop-off from the 80-plus it won in the disputed February 2008 presidential election. -------------- THE PROOF IS IN THE PUDDING -------------- YEREVAN 00000429 002.2 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) In TEC 7 (that comprises both the adjacent Malatia-Sebastia and Ajapnyak districts),36 percent of the precincts recorded a voter turnout of between 60 and 70 percent; 15 percent recorded a voter turnout of 70 to 80 percent; and 27 percent of the PECs recorded a voter turnout of 80 percent or above. In TEC 8 (Malatia-Sebastia and Shengavit),24 percent of the PECs recorded a voter turnout of between 60 and 70 percent; and 27 percent recorded a voter turnout of 80 percent or above. TECs 11 and 12, which compose the majority of the Shengavit district, as well as parts of the Erebuni district, also show comparatively higher rates of voter turnout. In TEC 11, 29 percent of the precincts recorded a voter turnout of between 60 and 70 percent. In TEC 12 (Shengavit and Erebuni),40 percent of the PECs recorded a voter turnout between 60 and 70 percent. In TEC 1, which composes Avan and parts of Nor-Nork, 21 percent of the PECs recorded a voter turnout of between 60 and 70 percent. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) It seems beyond coincidental that the TECs that recorded some of the highest vote totals for RPA also registered the highest voter turnout numbers -- turnout numbers which, in many of the precincts in these TECS, are inconceivably high for a municipal election. It is also reasonable to conclude that the RPA concentrated its electoral manipulations in targeted TECs rather than spreading the effort throughout the city. In the end, however, we will never know how many votes the RPA won legitimately, and how many were fraudulent. We nevertheless find it hard to believe that RPA won fair and square the forty percent of votes it needed to gain a majority in the city council, and more importantly, the right to elevate its top candidate to the post of mayor. We also find it hard to believe that the ANC won only five precincts in the recent election, down from the 80-plus it won in the 2008 presidential election. PENNINGTON