WELCOME HOME: GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS RETURNS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000377 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2019 TAGS: PGOV ECON EAID EFIN EMIN AM SUBJECT: WELCOME HOME: GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS RETURNS TO SYUNIK MARZ YEREVAN 00000377 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch for reasons 1.4(b/d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Ambassador visited Syunik marz from May 18-20, where she met with local officials, civil society leaders, and other local residents to discuss the current socioeconomic situation in the region. Syunik is one of the country's most important economic regions, possessing large agricultural and mining sectors. Despite significant economic development, the marz has suffered as a result of post-independence conflict and the current global economic crisis. Syunik residents complain of economic isolation, high prices, lack of access to capital, unemployment, and falling remittances from abroad. The GOAM has taken steps to ameliorate concerns but, although local leaders remain hopeful, the crisis shows no signs of abating. End Summary. -------------- Welcome Home -------------- ¶2. (C) From May 18 through May 20, Ambassador visited Syunik marz, one of Armenia's 11 provinces, where she met with the mayors of Goris, Kapan and Sisian, civil society leaders, and other local residents to discuss the current socioeconomic situation in the region. All Syunik residents with whom the Ambassador met expressed concern over how the current global economic crisis has affected the marz. Syunik is one of the country's most important economic regions, possessing large mining and agricultural sectors. Despite significant economic development and prosperity during Soviet rule, however, the marz has suffered as a result of post-independence conflict and isolation, and in the current global economic crisis. As one civil society leader in Sisian noted, "Since the early 1990s, we have always been in a state of economic difficulty. We ask, 'The global economic crisis is coming to Syunik?' Well, welcome home!" -------------- Economic Isolation -------------- ¶3. (C) Syunik residents profoundly feel the impact of the crisis, and expressed concern over economic isolation as a result of war and poor infrastructure, which limits links to the outside world. Mountainous Syunik shares two of its borders with Azerbaijan, both closed, and a third with Iran, which does not seemingly confer additional economic benefit. Kapan, the capital city of Syunik, is closer to Stepanakert, the break-away capital of Nagorno Karabakh, than to Yerevan, and there are no railways or airports linking Syunik's largest cities to the capital. Roads are in poor condition, often impassable in winter, and public transportation does not routinely run between Syunik's city centers. The Goris mayor listed economic sectors he would like to concentrate on in the city, particularly tourism, but said that efforts are often thwarted due to poor infrastructure and lack of access to the internet for promotion. As Goris civil society members noted, "There are two different Armenias -- Yerevan and everywhere else." Unfortunately, economic isolation has not kept Syunik sheltered from the crisis. As one civil society leader in Goris quipped, "This crisis is like the swine flu. We'll try to avoid it, but sooner or later, there it is. You just hope there is an antidote by the time it reaches your doorstep." -------------- Bread from the Sky -------------- ¶4. (C) The agricultural sector particularly suffers from isolation. Many Goris residents asserted that a crisis began in rural areas of Syunik "years ago." While many families rely on their gardens and agricultural lands for subsistence, especially during difficult times, many voiced concerns to the Ambassador about the cost of seeds, lack of access to fertilizers and modern equipment, and no irrigation, forcing people -- as Sisian school principals asserted -- to "rely on God's will." The Mayor of Sisian likewise complained about fertilizer costs from Georgia due to the "economic blockade against Armenia by its neighbors," and a lack of international investments in irrigation canals in the region, forcing citizens to depend on what famed Armenian poet Hovhanes Tyumanian called, "bread hanging from the sky." Almost all Syunik residents with whom the Ambassador met noted that, in addition, while markets are shrinking for agricultural products in the crisis, farmers in Syunik have YEREVAN 00000377 002.2 OF 004 difficulty selling their produce. The Mayor of Sisian noted, "Agricultural lands are far from the highway and transportation is extremely difficult. Economic crisis or not, people simply can't sell what they produce." ¶5. (C) The GOAM announced early this year subsidies on the rental of up to six hectares of land, but Syunik mayors noted that residents were forced to borrow money from banks to buy seeds. After the economic crisis hit, the GOAM changed policy -- now only nine areas are eligible for subsidies, all 1,800 meters above sea level. The city council in Sisian successfully pushed the central government to grant waivers on past due fees as part of a national tax amnesty, but members remain concerned about residents being able to pay their rent. Migration Center representatives in Sisian noted that farmers hear on TV about loans for land and seeds, but there are few banks, all of which ask for collateral -- "a pound of gold or a deed to a Yerevan apartment" -- that Syunik citizens cannot produce. From January to March 2009, no loan applications were filed in any banks in the Sisian area, but as a Migration Center representative stated, "They weren't giving away money anyway." He noted that "Interest rates are high, banks are scared and real estate prices are soaring. To get a loan, you have to pledge more money than the property is worth." He also claimed that banks are putting "all the risk on individuals when they have no knowledge or training." -------------- Social Welfare as Profit -------------- ¶6. (C) The mining sector, Syunik's other major economic sphere, has similarly suffered. Three large copper, molybdenum and gold mines -- Agarak, Zangezur, and Deno Gold -- employing nearly 50,000 people, roughly 25 percent of Kapan's population, have grappled with debts, responsibilities to employees, and government pressure to keep factories open. The fate of the region is largely tied to the mines, whose taxes generate a substantial part of budget revenues for most cities. As civil society representatives in Kapan noted, "Here copper is king. If the mine does well, the city does well. If not, well, there is no alternative." To that end, the global economic crisis has been most heavily felt in this sector, as international prices for minerals has plummeted. ¶7. (C) The Agarak Copper Molybdenum Mine is the most profitable mining company in Syunik, but by November 2008 was on the verge of shutdown, triggering a wave of strikes. The Zangezur Copper plant is the largest mining company in Armenia but has also significantly scaled down output and exports. Deno Gold suspended operations in November 2008, when rumors of layoffs resulted in street protests. Layoffs and salary reductions of up to 40 percent, coupled with temporary factory closings, provoked fear in residents and led to GOAM mediation and intervention. Deno Gold continues to pay reduced salaries to miners; Agarak reopened amid doubts about its viability;, and Zangezur was granted a 10 million dollar government loan at reduced rates as part of an anti-crisis package in the region. In April 2009, Armenian President Serzh Sargsian visited Syunik to assure enterprises and Syunik citizens that "economic conditions will improve," and publicly urged mining companies to "keep working in the crisis, even with zero gain, so that you may solve social issues and earn this as your profit." Mining companies are "trying to keep things running with layoffs and slowdowns," according to Goris civil society representatives, "but things will never be the same." -------------- The Highest Unemployment Rate in Armenia -------------- ¶8. (C) Layoffs and slowdowns are especially frightening in a region plagued by unemployment. A remote marz far from Armenia's capital city, Syunik has generally struggled to provide sufficient employment opportunities for its citizens since independence, particularly after armed conflict with Azerbaijan in the early 1990s, which the Kapan mayor called "the years of economic depression, darkness and starving." Official unemployment rates in Syunik marz are not readily available, but most Syunik leaders and residents believe the real figures to be higher than GOAM-quoted numbers, and growing in the current crisis, particularly among the service industry as internet cafes, restaurants, and taxi businesses close. The Mayor of Sisian noted that his biggest public policy challenge is unemployment, "a worry here more than in all of Armenia." Sisian NGO leaders concurred, agreeing that "Sisian has always had high rates of unemployment, but YEREVAN 00000377 003.2 OF 004 it is getting worse." The Sisian mayor noted that the city has an official unemployment rate of seven percent, but that he believes the real rate is closer to 40 percent. Kapan's mayor believed the city's official unemployment rate to be around 16 percent, "the highest in all of Armenia." The Goris Mayor said unemployment rates in Goris have been exacerbated by the current global economic crisis. ¶9. (C) Unemployment rates have also increased due to migrant workers returning to the region, facing uncertain futures in host countries like Russia where, according to Sisian Migration Center representatives, officials and potential employers have become extremely strict about checking documents of foreign workers. Undocumented Armenian workers seek skilled employment and, although it is unclear whether there are Russian workers to fill the void, returning migrants state that only Russian citizens are being offered work. In February, when the center began to see repatriation in larger numbers, the migration center assisted 17 returned migrants looking for employment in Sisian. The center has likewise noted a drop in the number of Armenians seeking assistance in locating work and housing abroad. In April 2008, the center assisted 70 people. In the same period this year, not a single potential migrant appealed to the center for pre-departure guidance. -------------- Homeward Bound, Pockets Empty -------------- ¶10. (C) Remittances from Armenians working abroad are an important source of income for many Syunik families, but due to the economic crisis this year have declined by an astonishing 85 percent from last year's level. The Goris Mayor estimated that over 20 percent of Goris families rely on remittances to meet basic needs. The Mayor of Sisian estimated this figure at 37 percent for his city, and Civil Society representatives estimated about 30 percent of Kapan residents are heavily reliant on remittances. While there are no official statistics on remittances in the region, Kapan-based Peace Corps volunteers asserted that, "Anecdotally, everyone here has someone who lives in Russia. Although no one talks openly about current troubles, people are on stand-by waiting to see when and where employment opportunities come along." ¶11. (C) At a Goris NGO roundtable, civil society leaders discussed with the Ambassador the important role of remittances for Syunik residents and the need to seek work abroad. They expressed concern, however, over how "expensive" unemployment in a foreign country can be. While some families have sold property or livestock to pay for plane tickets for returning family members, many families have decided to wait out the crisis. One participant noted, "They can come home, but to what, to subsist on a garden? For the first time since independence, less income is coming in than is going out. Families in Armenia are now having to send money to family members in Russia to support them while they look for employment, but there are still more opportunities there than in Syunik." -------------- No Job, No Money, No PPP -------------- ¶12. (C) In addition to lack of access to capital, Syunik residents expressed concern over purchasing power parity and high prices, leading to a significant drop in demand for products, estimated as much as 50 percent in Sisian. Goris civil society members stated that prices for utilities and products have soared as the Dram (AMD) has been devalued, and the Goris mayor noted that retail sales have declined by about 50 percent. Sisian school principals agreed that entrepreneur relatives are receiving fewer orders, producing less, and that expenses are difficult to plan. Peace Corps volunteers in Goris noted that they have heard of families pulling gold teeth to use as extra funds, and that people are opting for cheaper yeast breads rather than the traditional lavash. -------------- A Bright Side -------------- ¶13. (C) Despite challenges and recent difficulties, Syunik leaders display an independent spirit and confidence, famed in a region considered to be Armenia's "wild west." The mayors of each town in particular articulated faith in their citizens and a desire to look to the future. They noted that certain industries, like basalt mining and hydropower, YEREVAN 00000377 004.2 OF 004 continue to do well, and that some construction projects, including a Goris hospital, are being built with World Bank and other international organization funding. The Kapan mayor proudly exclaimed he is ensuring employment in city hall, increasing salaries by 40 percent since January 2009, and implementing a seasonal work program for Kapan's most vulnerable populations. The Goris mayor assured that GOAM commitments to the town "were solid and secure" and that a large street renovation project would begin in May, providing needed employment. The Sisian mayor thanked the Ambassador for USAID assistance with budgeting software and other city beautification projects. He noted, "There are problems, but we will overcome them." YOVANOVITCH