RAFFI HOVANNISIAN ON TURKEY-ARMENIA RAPPROCHEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000376 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2019 TAGS: PBTS PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TU AJ AM SUBJECT: RAFFI HOVANNISIAN ON TURKEY-ARMENIA RAPPROCHEMENT Classified By: AMB Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b/d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Armenia's first foreign minister and current leader of the Heritage Party Raffi Hovannisian told the Ambassador that inflammatory statements by Turkey's prime minister were "fraying Armenia's nerves." He said he was concerned that Armenian authorities were not responding to the remarks. He noted the timing of the April 22 announcement of a road map to normalize Turkish-Armenia relations had created suspicions in Armenia that the GOAM had sold out, and fears that the authorities were doing nothing to allay these. He also urged the West to strike a better balance between its support of democracy in Armenia with its wider geopolitical interests in the region. The Ambassador agreed it was essential for Armenia's leaders to gain public support for rapprochement, just as it was in Turkey, but cautioned that a lack of trust on both sides risked the loss of a rare opportunity for rapprochement. END SUMMARY. -------------- TURKEY'S PM TESTING ARMENIA'S PATIENCE -------------- ¶2. (C) On May 22 the Ambassador invited U.S.-born Raffi Hovannisian, Armenia's first foreign minister and current leader of the opposition Heritage party, and his spouse Armine for lunch to hear their views on Turkey-Armenia rapprochement and the upcoming Yerevan mayoral election (septel). Hovannisian told the Ambassador that the recent inflammatory remarks made by Turkey's prime minister conditioning the normalization of Turkish-Armenia ties on Armenian concessions to Azerbaijan in the NK conflict risked "fraying Armenia's nerves." He argued that all three of Armenia's presidential administrations -- after independence from the USSR in 1991 -- had been mature in seeking rapprochement without any preconditions, and that they had been cool and measured in their approach -- "unlike the Turks." ¶3. (C) Hovannisian said he was frustrated now, however, that in the face of PM Erdogan's consistent use of "emotive vocabulary" and attempts to table a UN resolution including inflammatory wording in the N-K issue, Armenia's authorities remained silent. He stated that if Erdogan's statements truly represented Turkey's new official line, "Armenia must say something." Hovannisian said it was time for Armenia's �A;authorities to "change their gears, come up with their own clear position," and "respond to Turkey's moves." When the Ambassador noted that President Sargsian had issued a statesmanlike pronouncement on May 15, the Hovannisians said that the president's restrained comments in the face of Turkey linking the Turkey-Armenia process with N-K negotiations was exactly the problem. Armine Hovannisian stated that the President's restraint was responsible for "creating doubts" in the public's mind that "what the Turks are saying about current negotiations is the truth." -------------- ROAD MAP CREATED SUSPICIONS -------------- ¶4. (C) The Hovannisians also said that the timing of the April 22 announcement of a road map to normalize Turkish-Armenian relations had created concern in Armenia. Coming right before President Obama was to give his first April 24 statement on the "genocide" caused many to wonder whether the timing was coincidental, or whether a deal had been struck. Armine Hovannisian also said she thought the road map announcement and President Obama's avoidance of the word "genocide" had encouraged the Turks to take a harder line on Armenia. The Ambassador replied that while she understood the Armenian point of view on the timing, President Obama had already signaled his intentions early in April, during his visit to Turkey. ¶5. (C) The Ambassador also said that she understood the need for Armenian leaders to make their public comfortable with the rapprochement process, but that the same was true in Turkey. She emphasized that the present opportunity before Armenia and Turkey was truly rare, and that trust on both sides, particularly between President Sargsian and PM Erdogan was critical, lest the opportunity be lost. The Hovannisians argued that publicizing the contents of the road map would remove some of the suspicions and rumors swirling around it inside Armenia. -------------- TURKISH "PUERILE DIPLOMACY" YEREVAN 00000376 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. (C) Asked about FM Nalbandian's closed meeting to parliamentarians after the road map announcement, Raffi Hovannisian said MPs came away "unsatisfied," and with the impression that the foreign minister "danced around the issues." He said MPs still wonder whether the road map includes preconditions for Armenia. Hovannisian then griped that "a border opening" should not even be part of Turkish-Armenian negotiations to normalize relations. He called the 1993 border closing by Turkey a "hostile act," and said that years after "Turkey unilaterally closed its border with Armenia," it now seeks "additional chits" to re-open it. Hovannisian fumed that the current Turkish approach amounted to "puerile diplomacy." -------------- WEST SHOULD BALANCE GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS -------------- ¶7. (C) Raffi Hovannisian cautioned that "the West needs to find the proper balance" between its democracy agenda in Armenia and its broader geopolitical interests in the region. He warned of the "danger of the West once again giving precedence to Turkey-Armenia relations" over its support of "democratic values, human rights, and rule of law" in Armenia. The Ambassador disagreed that the United States was giving "a pass" to Armenia on democracy issues. She stated that the United States remained as firmly interested in democracy and human rights in Armenia as it did in its geopolitical interests in the region. Hovannisian replied that while ultimately it was up to Armenians themselves to address their democratic failings, it was important that the West strike an appropriate balance between its democracy support in Armenia and its geopolitical interests in the region. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The grandson of a "genocide" survivor who was dismissed as foreign minister after issuing heated remarks on an official visit to Turkey in the early 1990s, Raffi Hovannisian obviously has strong views on the way Armenia should handle rapprochement with Turkey. The authorities have a long way to go to prepare their public on rapprochement if they have yet to convince a respected opinion maker like Hovannisian of the merits of their approach. If properly informed and consulted, Hovannisian could be a powerful advocate of rapprochement -- if not, he could become yet another opponent on a long and growing list. YOVANOVITCH