PRESIDENT SARGSIAN HINTS AT POSSIBLE AMNESTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000368

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/28/2019
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KDEM PREL AM
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT SARGSIAN HINTS AT POSSIBLE AMNESTY

REF: YEREVAN 345

YEREVAN 00000368 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: AMBASSADOR MARIE L. YOVANOVITCH, REASONS 1.4 (B,D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In response to a journalist's question on May 28,
President Sargsian said he is prepared to declare an amnesty
"if the public has determined that there is such a need."
The amnesty would presumably apply to most if not all of
those in prison on charges related to the 2008 presidential
election and the post-election violence of March 1. Sargsian
called on "political forces, public figures, and the
(presidential) Public Council" to present proposals on the
necessity and conditions for an amnesty to the Presidency.
"If it becomes clear that the public sees a need for this,"
Sargsian said he is prepared to use his authority to seek
approval for an amnesty through the National Assembly. Gagik
Tsarukian, leader of the coalition partner Prosperous
Armenia, told the Ambassador May 29 that there could be
movement toward an amnesty for March 1 detainees "within the
next 10-20 days," but predicted that it could be a month from
now before an amnesty proposal is approved in the National
Assembly. Opposition leaders immediately assailed Sargsian's
comments, arguing that an amnesty is a political decision for
the President to make. Given the GOAM build-up to this
anouncement, and the fact that Sargsian highlighted the issue
in his recent letter to the Secretary, the reality of his
comments fell short of what was expected. We will continue to
press for the earliest possible release of the detainees. End
summary.

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PRESIDENT "PREPARED" TO PROPOSE AMNESTY
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2. (C) Following more than a week of hints from senior GOAM
officials (reftel) and a public announcement by the Speaker
of Parliament on May 21 that President Sargsian would declare
an amnesty for the March 1 detainees on Armenian Republic Day
(May 28),the President's anouncement fell short of
expectations. Answering a question from a journalist, the
President noted that the last general amnesty in Armenia had
been declared in 2006. "If the idea has matured in our
society over the past three years that there is a need for a
new amnesty," Sargsian said, "then I am prepared to use my
consitutional authority." He then called on "political
forces, public figures, or the Public Council" to present
proposals to the Presidency on the necessity of an amnesty
and the conditions under which it should be carried out. "If
it emerges that there is such a desire in society," the
President pledged to apply to the National Assembly to
approve such a proposal.

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OPPOSITION REMAINS UNCONVINCED
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3. (C) Opposition and human rights leaders were quick to
react to the President's comments, and were highly skeptical
that an amnesty would be declared. In an interview with
RFE/RL, Aram Sargsian, a top lieutenant of Armenian National
Congress (ANC) leader Levon Ter-Petrossian, scoffed at the
proposal. "It is very bad that the President doesn't know the
wishes of the people, and is thus unable to assess the
situation in the country." Sargsian added that the opposition
"has no need to appeal for anything," and promised that "we
will free our comrades on our own."


4. (C) Mikayel Danielyan, head of the Helsinki Association,
criticized the President's statement, calling it "a show for
the international community." (NOTE: The Monitoring Committee
of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe will
review the detainee issue in a session on June 5. End Note.)
Danielyan said he did not believe an amnesty would be
carried out.


5. (C) Melissa Brown, the AmCit spouse of detained LTP
activist (and former Foreign Minister) Alexander Arzumanian,
said that while she remains hopeful that her husband will be
released, she views it as "unlikely." She indicated that only
stepped up pressure from the international community on the
detainee issue could force the GOAM into carrying out an
amnesty. Brown speculated that President Sargsian's
statement may be a sign that he is trying to avoid sole
responsibility for declaring an amnesty if in the end he is
compelled to do so by the international community.

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TSARUKIAN SAYS PROPOSAL LIKELY IN 10-20 DAYS

YEREVAN 00000368 002.2 OF 002


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6. (C) In a May 29 lunch with the Ambassador, Prosperous
Armenia leader Gagik Tsarukian said he fully supported an
amnesty for all March 1 detainees, and said his party would
soon be sending a proposal to the President on the issue.
Tsarukian said there could be progress toward an amnesty
"within 10-20 days," but predicted it would be "a month from
now" before such a proposal would gain final approval in the
National assembly. Tsarukian said he was confident that an
amnesty would be declared, and that it would apply to "at
least 90-95 percent" of the detainees.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Given the build-up by presidential advisors toward a
"major announcement" by President Sargsian, his May 28
comments were disappointing. This is especially true in view
of the fact that Sargsian drew attention to this issue in his
recent letter to the Secretary. Based on the President's
indirect approach to the amnesty idea, and on the timetable
set out by Tsarukian, it seems unlikely that we will see
detainees freed before the June 10 meeting of the MCC Board.
However, we will continue to push the authorities to follow
through on the President's commitment and to accelerate the
move toward an amnesty, if that is in fact the Government's
intention.
YOVANOVITCH