MAYORAL CANDIDATES GUARDED IN AMBASSADOR'S CALLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000355

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AM
SUBJECT: MAYORAL CANDIDATES GUARDED IN AMBASSADOR'S CALLS

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Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch. Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On May 14-15 the Ambassador met separately
with two ruling coalition mayoral candidates: Prosperous
Armenia (PA) candidate (and Health Minister) Harutyun
Kushkian, and Rule of Law (OY) candidate and parliamentary
faction leader Heghine Bisharian. Kushkian said his party
and its senior Republican Party of Armenia (PRA) partner in
the ruling coalition decided on separate campaigns in order
to gauge their respective levels of support in society.
Bisharian said that while her party took a hit in popularity
following its decision to join the coalition in 2008, she
sees the party's popularity rising as it has kept the
promises it made to its electorate. The Ambassador used the
meetings to convey her dismay over the spate of
election-related violence directed at the media and
opposition canvassers, as well as the violence between
activists of coalition partners Republican (RPA) and
Prosperous Armenia (PA).. END SUMMARY

PROSPEROUS ARMENIA
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2. (C) Ambassador called on Health Minister Harutyun
Kushkian in his offices at the Health Ministry on April 14.
Though cordial, Kushkian gave little away, with the entire
conversation lasting less than half an hour. Two points were
most telling amidst Kushkian's brief non-answers. The first
was his comment that he did not consider such issues as
garbage disposal, water supply, and landscaping to be
"political issues" suitable for inclusion in his party's
campaign platform. Rather, these constituted routine matters
of day-to-day work, which he deemed unworthy of comment.
Instead, he stated that the campaign was about "making all
citizens of Yerevan feel equal, and creating a climate of
fairness." He did not elaborate on what this would mean in
practice.


3. (C) Secondly, at several points in the conversation he
tacitly betrayed that he has no real expectation of actually
becoming mayor. At one point, for example, he mentioned his
firm plans to attend an international healthcare conference
in New York in July, but then hastily corrected himself to
say he would attend only if was not elected mayor. When
asked how elections would turn out, he failed to predict a
victory for Prosperous Armenia. Later that evening at a
reception hosted by the Ambassador, Kushkian took pains to
stress his intentions of winning the election, blaming any
misunderstanding on innocent translation mistakes.


4. (C) The Ambassador and Kushkian both lamented the recent
spate of violence that has already marred the campaign. The
Ambassador noted reports that several opposition activists
distributing leaflets had been assaulted by youths in the
Yerevan district of Avan. Kushkian professed ignorance of
the events, but declared they were shameful if true. He
added that his own party had not experienced any such
incidents, at which point the Ambassador raised the recent
reported melee between young RPA and PA supporters on May 12.
Kushkian acknowledged that unfortunately both parties have
attracted some ardent and occasionally overzealous young
supporters who have not yet learned the proper boundaries of
political discourse, and such incidents were regrettable. He
emphasized that PA and RPA continue to work together quite
well in government, and said that no hard feelings exist
between the parties. He said the ruling coalition partners
had made a mature political decision to run separate races in
order for each to measure its respective level of public
support. (COMMENT: The May 2007 parliamentary election
period -- and especially Election Day itself -- featured a
number of brawls between rival goon squads of the RPA and PA
as the two sharply contested for dominance in various
regions, but most of this was hushed up by authorities and
the parties' leaders. END COMMENT)

ORINATS YERKIR
--------------


5. (C) Rule of Law (Orinats Yerkir) candidate and
parliamentary faction leader Heghine Bisharian told
Ambassador on May 15 that her polling shows her in third
place in the crowded field and her popularity steadily
growing, especially as her media exposure increases.
Bisharian acknowledged that OY's entering the ruling
coalition immediately after last year's disputed presidential
election had hurt the party's popularity, as it endured
considerable criticism by the LTP-led opposition which said
OY shared responsibility for the March 1 events. (Note:
Before the election, OY leader and presidential candidate
Arthur Baghdassarian strongly denounced Serzh Sargsian before

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abruptly accepting Sargsian's offer to join the coalition.
Many in the opposition feel Baghdassarian and OY betrayed
them, as this defection took considerable wind out of the
opposition's sails and may have given the GOAM cover to break
up the opposition demonstrations early in the morning on
March 1. End Note). However, Bisharian asserted that during
the past year the party has shown some impressive
achievements, and that people are seeing that Arthur
Baghdassarian and his party are keeping their promises.


6. (C) Bisharian said OY has an ambitious platform for
Yerevan, and argued that a woman at the head of the party
list is an asset, not a liability. She claims to have a good
record in public office and has not been part of official
corruption. The party platform calls for improved services,
including better snow removal (always rather spotty) and
street repair (potholes are a recurring problem). Her
priorities include a Yerevan without poverty, re-opening
dozens of firms that have closed due to the economic
slowdown, more balanced development that focuses on more than
just downtown, and more reliable tracking of building
maintenance. She said OY would also make environmental
issues a serious priority, noting that Armenia currently has
serious environmental problems.


7. (C) Bisharian has engaged in a variety of campaign events,
from small meetings to large rallies; she claimed to prefer
small rallies where she has a better opportunity to explain
her positions. She has also made several television
appearances, and asserts that OY's popularity increases with
every broadcast. She noted that every time Arthur
Baghdassarian appears on television, it also helps the party;
despite the criticism he has received for joining the ruling
coalition, she claims he remains popular with voters.


8. (C) Asked why the ruling coalition (Republican, Orinats
Yerkir, Prosperous Armenia) chose to run separate campaigns
instead of uniting behind a single coalition candidate,
Bisharian replied that while the parties discussed putting
forward a coalition candidate, they ultimately opted to run
separately in part because a joint run would have led each
party to claim they contributed a larger share of the votes.
Running separately will allow each party to gauge its
popularity with voters, Bisharian said.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) It is common for Armenian politicians to keep their
political conversation on a rarified -- and ultimately empty
-- plane of abstract theory and regional geopolitics.
Kushkian's disregard of pressing local issues is more the
norm than the exception for leading politicians. In this
regard, Bisharian's roll-up-the-sleeves approach is
refreshing, although she may have a credibility problem given
her party's record of flip-flopping on campaign promises.
While we believe Kushkian and Bisharian's claims about
wanting to gauge their own parties, popularity by running
separate candidates for mayor, that is probably not the whole
story. OY and PA may be working with the ruling Repulican
party to siphon votes from actual opposition parties, in
particular the Armenian National Congress led by former
President Levon Ter-Petrossian. End Comment.
YOVANOVITCH