MEDIA REACTION: Armenia - Turkey Negotiations, the Long

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000286

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958; N/A
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV KPAO KMDR KDEM AM

SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: Armenia - Turkey Negotiations, the Long
Road Ahead

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Both print and TV media extensively covered the April 23
joint "road map" statement by Turkish, Armenian and Swiss foreign
ministries on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.
President Sargsian and FM Nalbandian made strong public statements
of support for the proposal, which were widely carried. Media
widely reported Vice President Biden and Secretary Clinton's
contacts with GOAM officials on this issue. The opposition Armenian
National Congress confined its criticism to the fact that the
proposed deal with Turkey remains secret, and chose to deploy only
its second-tier spokesmen. The more stridently nationalist Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (ARF; aka Dashnaktsutyun) and opposition
Heritage Party were most harshly critical of opening to Turkey.
Media reports focused on 1) U.S. government reaction to the road map
2) Armenian pro-government response and 3) opposition demands for
the immediate disclosure of the plan and the ARF decision to
withdraw from the government coalition over it. The statement's
timing, made on the eve of the commemoration date of mass killings
and deportations of Armenians from the Ottoman Empire in 1915, also
caused speculation. Press finally focused on Turkey's potential
role in the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations and Azerbaijan's reaction
to the road map. END SUMMARY.

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U.S. OFFICIALS' CALLS WIDELY REPORTED
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2. (SBU) Both print and TV media extensively covered the April 23
joint "road map" statement by Turkish, Armenian and Swiss foreign
ministries on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.
Reporting on the U.S. government reaction to the road map was
positive. Center-right Azg, pro-government Hayots Ashkhar, and
pro-government Respublika Armenii reported that the U.S. State
Department issued a press release supporting the normalization of
relations. Hayots Ashkhar, opposition daily Aravot, pro-government
Novoye Vremya, pro-government Golos Armenii, government paper
Hayastani Hanrapetutiun and Azg also reported that Vice President
Joe Biden reaffirmed the strong U.S. support for efforts to improve
Armenian-Turkish relations in a phone call with President Sargsian
late last Thursday, the second call in four days. Hayastani
Hanrapetutiun and Azg noted that on Monday, Foreign Minister
Nalbandian held a phone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton. Clinton was reported to describe as "historic" a
Turkish-Armenian statement on the normalization of bilateral
relations.

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SARGSIAN REAFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR TURKEY PROCESS
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3. (SBU) Pro-government officials publically lauded Armenia and
Turkey's announcement, hailing it as a major breakthrough in
regional conflict negotiation. All media outlets covered a
statement given by President Sargsian during a National Security
Council session. Sargsian is quoted, "It's natural we will start
with the process of the Armenian-Turkish dialogue and with the joint
statements made two days ago. Our position is rather clear. There
cannot be closed borders in Europe in the 21st century."

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OFF COURSE, IN HOSTILE WATERS?
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4. (SBU) Opposition leaders demanded the immediate disclosure of the
road map, criticizing the agreement as "secretive," and that secrecy
is "not in the public's interest." Leader of the People's Party,
Stepan Demirchian, stated at a press conference on Monday that it is
"necessary that the authorities declassify the so-called road map."
RFE/RL reports that Armenia's leadership remained "tight-lipped" on
Friday about details of a potentially ground-breaking agreement with
Turkey, despite growing pressure from the domestic opposition
concerned about its possible implications. The Heritage Party and
the Armenian National Congress also demanded the "immediate
disclosure" of the road map.


5. (SBU) All press covered the ARF's (aka Dashnaktsutyun) decision
to withdraw from the government coalition due to disagreements over
the road map. Citing the ARF's spokesperson, they write about the
party's "insurmountable fundamental disagreements" with President
Sargsian over his "conciliatory" policy toward Turkey. In a written
statement published in all newspapers, ARF leadership reiterated the
nationalist party's condemnation of the road map. RFE/RL reports
that the dramatic move followed a Saturday meeting between Sargsian

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and two ARF leaders, Hrant Markarian and Armen Rustamian. According
to the latter, Sargsian briefed them on the essence of the still
unpublicized road map. "The president's explanations did not satisfy
us," Rustamian said on Monday.


6. (SBU) Media extensively covered the mixed reaction to ARF's
decision to withdraw from the coalition. In a joint statement
released on Monday, the Republican Party and its two remaining
coalition partners, the Prosperous Armenia and Orinats Yerkir
Parties said they "respect" ARF's decision but believe that the
rapprochement with Turkey is good for Armenia. "That policy will not
undermine efforts at greater international recognition of the
'genocide' or lead to more Armenian concessions to Azerbaijan,"
added the statement. Prosperous Armenia Party leader, Gagik
Tsarukian, not in line with his party's statement, told journalists
he was "highly skeptical" about the success of the Turkish-Armenian
dialogue. "My personal view is that Turkey will not open the
border," he stated. Tsarukian, who is believed to be close to the
more hard-line former President Robert Kocharian, also said that
ARF's pullout will "weaken" the ruling coalition. The Heritage
Party championed ARF's decision. "Welcome to the opposition!" its
top leader, Raffi Hovannisian, told RFE/RL.


7. (SBU) Pro-government leaders responded to the decision by stating
that the ARF is a weak party with a small voter base. Galust
Sahakian, the Republican Party's parliamentary leader denied that
ARF was kept in the dark about details of the negotiations. Armen
Ashotian, another senior Republican lawmaker, claimed that
negotiations were only a "pretext for ARF to leave the government
and try to win more votes in the next elections." The leader of the
People's party, Tigran Karapetyan, stated at a press conference,
"The ARF has to leave the coalition, otherwise it will disappear as
a party."

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LEADING WITH A MORAL COMPASS?
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8. (SBU) The timing of the road map's announcement, released on the
eve of the commemoration date of mass killings and deportations of
Armenians from the Ottoman Empire in 1915, led to speculations about
whether or not the "no preconditions" agreement was good for
Armenia. Aravot and Hayots Ashkhar stated that Vladimir Karapetyan,
former Spokesperson of the MFA and now foreign policy spokesperson
of the Armenian National Congress, accused the Armenian government
of "helping Turkey in its efforts to stop the recognition of the
'genocide." Opposition daily Haykakan Zhamanak published the
comments of the U.S. citizen Director of the Armenian Center for
National and International Studies, (a think tank connected to the
opposition Heritage Party),who named the road map "one of the most
serious strategic mistakes of the Armenian government." The
newspaper also concludes that by signing this document one day
before President Obama's much anticipated commemoration remarks,
Turkey ensured the word "genocide" would not be used in the U.S.
President's speech. The ANC-affiliated opposition Peoples' Party of
Armenia leader Stepan Demirchian said, "We support the normalization
of Turkish-Armenian relations, but not at the expense of our
national dignity."


9. (SBU) Independent Arminfo news agency reported that former
Foreign Minister of Armenia, Vartan Oskanian, said in Beirut on
April 24 that the "readiness to open a border with an uncompromising
neighbor is a concession." "Stretching out the hand of cooperation
to a government denying a crime committed by their predecessors is a
compromise fraught with very serious consequences for our security,"
said Oskanian, who is allied with former President Kocharian. In
regard to the road map, he said that, "If the adoption of such a
document on the eve of April 24 was just a coincidence, it means
that the Armenian authorities are indifferent to the pain of their
people. But if they did it purposefully, based on somebody's
proposal or even insistence, in hope that they might get something
in exchange, it means that they have put up the 'Armenian Genocide'
for sale, which is unacceptable."


10. (SBU) The Armenian government gave media outlets an obviously
different viewpoint. Foreign Minister Nalbandian, in an interview
given to independent Armenpress and reported on by Novoye Vremya,
pro-government 168 Zham, Golos Armenii, Hayots Ashkhar and Hayastani
Hanrapetutiun, stated that "President Obama's statement was a step
forward. That statement contains very strong points and President
Obama used the phrase 'Mets Yeghern.'...The normalization of
relations does not put into question the fact of the 'genocide.'
Why can't we do what Charles de Gaulle and Adenauer did? I am sure
that such a day will come and the Armenian and Turkish leaderships
will take that step." The interview was also aired on several TV
channels.

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11. (SBU) President Sargsian noted in his same speech to the NSC,
"People say that publicizing the statement on the eve of April 24
could hinder international recognition of the 'genocide.' Just the
opposite is true... The fact that the statement was made on the eve
of April 24 proved that Turkey acknowledges the meaning of that
day." In an interview with "Russia Today," covered by Aravot, Azg,
Hayastani Hanrapetutiun, Hayots Askhar, Novoya Vremya and Golos
Armenii, Sargsian further noted, "We base ourselves on the fact that
there has been 'genocide,' but non-recognition of that 'genocide' by
Turkey is not viewed by us as an insurmountable obstacle for the
establishment of relations."

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Turkey - Clearing the Way or Hidden Agenda?
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12. (SBU) Discussion of 1915 events by media outlets has included
analyses of Turkey's role in the region, reaction to Turkish press
reports on the road map, and concerns over the road map's impact on
negotiations in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Commenting on
the road map, the Armenian Center for National and International
Studies (ACNIS) statement reads in part, "Such a strategic error
raises further questions, particularly when the security and status
of Nagorno-Karabakh remain unresolved." In another critical
article, Haykakan Zhamanak concluded that "From now on, Turkey will
not only be involved in the Karabakh conflict settlement process,
but Ankara itself will decide the further developments."


13. (SBU) Aravot published a front page editorial discussing
RFE/RL's report on the road map and reaction of the Turkish press.
RFE/RL wrote, "According to the 'Sabah' daily, Armenia will formally
recognize its existing border with Turkey and agree to the formation
of a joint commission of historians tasked with studying the mass
killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. It said historians
from other countries could also join the commission. Turkey will in
return gradually establish full diplomatic relations with Armenia
and reopen the Turkish-Armenian frontier closed it 1993." Aravot
and RFE/RL report that, commenting on the "Sabah" report, Armenian
FM spokesman Tigran Balayan said, "One should trust information
about such serious issues only if it comes from official sources."
Aravot responded, "We would not have speculated on the points
included in the document if they had been published officially. The
sooner it happens the better, as anxious doubts - especially those
created by Turkish propaganda - will multiply." Hayastani
Hanrapetutiun reported that the Secretary of the National Security
Council of Armenia, Artur Baghdasaryan, said Monday that information
published in "Sabah" (Turkish newspaper) regarding the road map
agreement has "nothing in common with reality."


14. (SBU) President Sargsian, in his interview with Russian press,
noted, "We are in favor of having relations with Turkey without any
preconditions... Until the recent period of time, everyone was
convinced that we have significantly progressed, but recently there
have been statements by the Prime Minister of Turkey to the effect
that the Armenian-Turkish relations can improve if Armenia
compromises on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. We view this as a
step back from the existing agreements and as a precondition being
put forward." He later noted during the NSC meeting, "Recently
there have been many speculations on Armenian-Turkish relations
being conditioned by Armenian-Azeri relations or concession on
Karabakh as a precondition for regulation of Armenian-Turkish
relations. Let me repeat once again, improvement of
Armenian-Turkish relations is quite possible and it can have a
positive impact on the Karabakh conflict settlement, but there can
be no preconditions."


15. (SBU) In the most optimistic press reports, media quoted
independent ter.am, that the first Turkish Ambassador to Armenia
will be Ertan Tezgor, who will serve as Ambassador of Turkey to
Georgia and Armenia. Aravot reported that President Gul will
discuss the road map very soon with the Turkish National Security
Council.


16. (SBU) Less press coverage was dedicated to Azerbaijan's reaction
to the road map announcement. Hayastani Hanrapetutiun and Hayots
Ashkhar reported that the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan
discussed the road map during a phone call on Thursday. Aravot
reported that Turkish President Gul stated on Friday that the
establishment of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia
will have a positive impact on the whole region. Discussing Turkish
relations with Azerbaijan, Gul said that relations between Ankara
and Baku continue at the same level as always, "without any
problems."

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COMMENT
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17. (SBU) Press reporting and commentary was focused much more on
the Armenia - Turkey road map than reaction to President Obama's
April 24 address. This suggests that media outlets and perhaps the
general public at large, while concerned about resolving historical
questions, are also heavily invested in the settlement process and
future prospects for peace in the region.

YOVANOVITCH