MEDIA REACTION: Armenia - Turkey Negotiations, the Long

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000286 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/CARC E.O. 12958; N/A TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV KPAO KMDR KDEM AM SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: Armenia - Turkey Negotiations, the Long Road Ahead -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Both print and TV media extensively covered the April 23 joint "road map" statement by Turkish, Armenian and Swiss foreign ministries on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. President Sargsian and FM Nalbandian made strong public statements of support for the proposal, which were widely carried. Media widely reported Vice President Biden and Secretary Clinton's contacts with GOAM officials on this issue. The opposition Armenian National Congress confined its criticism to the fact that the proposed deal with Turkey remains secret, and chose to deploy only its second-tier spokesmen. The more stridently nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF; aka Dashnaktsutyun) and opposition Heritage Party were most harshly critical of opening to Turkey. Media reports focused on 1) U.S. government reaction to the road map 2) Armenian pro-government response and 3) opposition demands for the immediate disclosure of the plan and the ARF decision to withdraw from the government coalition over it. The statement's timing, made on the eve of the commemoration date of mass killings and deportations of Armenians from the Ottoman Empire in 1915, also caused speculation. Press finally focused on Turkey's potential role in the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations and Azerbaijan's reaction to the road map. END SUMMARY. -------------- U.S. OFFICIALS' CALLS WIDELY REPORTED -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Both print and TV media extensively covered the April 23 joint "road map" statement by Turkish, Armenian and Swiss foreign ministries on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Reporting on the U.S. government reaction to the road map was positive. Center-right Azg, pro-government Hayots Ashkhar, and pro-government Respublika Armenii reported that the U.S. State Department issued a press release supporting the normalization of relations. Hayots Ashkhar, opposition daily Aravot, pro-government Novoye Vremya, pro-government Golos Armenii, government paper Hayastani Hanrapetutiun and Azg also reported that Vice President Joe Biden reaffirmed the strong U.S. support for efforts to improve Armenian-Turkish relations in a phone call with President Sargsian late last Thursday, the second call in four days. Hayastani Hanrapetutiun and Azg noted that on Monday, Foreign Minister Nalbandian held a phone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Clinton was reported to describe as "historic" a Turkish-Armenian statement on the normalization of bilateral relations. -------------- SARGSIAN REAFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR TURKEY PROCESS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Pro-government officials publically lauded Armenia and Turkey's announcement, hailing it as a major breakthrough in regional conflict negotiation. All media outlets covered a statement given by President Sargsian during a National Security Council session. Sargsian is quoted, "It's natural we will start with the process of the Armenian-Turkish dialogue and with the joint statements made two days ago. Our position is rather clear. There cannot be closed borders in Europe in the 21st century." -------------- OFF COURSE, IN HOSTILE WATERS? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Opposition leaders demanded the immediate disclosure of the road map, criticizing the agreement as "secretive," and that secrecy is "not in the public's interest." Leader of the People's Party, Stepan Demirchian, stated at a press conference on Monday that it is "necessary that the authorities declassify the so-called road map." RFE/RL reports that Armenia's leadership remained "tight-lipped" on Friday about details of a potentially ground-breaking agreement with Turkey, despite growing pressure from the domestic opposition concerned about its possible implications. The Heritage Party and the Armenian National Congress also demanded the "immediate disclosure" of the road map. ¶5. (SBU) All press covered the ARF's (aka Dashnaktsutyun) decision to withdraw from the government coalition due to disagreements over the road map. Citing the ARF's spokesperson, they write about the party's "insurmountable fundamental disagreements" with President Sargsian over his "conciliatory" policy toward Turkey. In a written statement published in all newspapers, ARF leadership reiterated the nationalist party's condemnation of the road map. RFE/RL reports that the dramatic move followed a Saturday meeting between Sargsian YEREVAN 00000286 002 OF 004 and two ARF leaders, Hrant Markarian and Armen Rustamian. According to the latter, Sargsian briefed them on the essence of the still unpublicized road map. "The president's explanations did not satisfy us," Rustamian said on Monday. ¶6. (SBU) Media extensively covered the mixed reaction to ARF's decision to withdraw from the coalition. In a joint statement released on Monday, the Republican Party and its two remaining coalition partners, the Prosperous Armenia and Orinats Yerkir Parties said they "respect" ARF's decision but believe that the rapprochement with Turkey is good for Armenia. "That policy will not undermine efforts at greater international recognition of the 'genocide' or lead to more Armenian concessions to Azerbaijan," added the statement. Prosperous Armenia Party leader, Gagik Tsarukian, not in line with his party's statement, told journalists he was "highly skeptical" about the success of the Turkish-Armenian dialogue. "My personal view is that Turkey will not open the border," he stated. Tsarukian, who is believed to be close to the more hard-line former President Robert Kocharian, also said that ARF's pullout will "weaken" the ruling coalition. The Heritage Party championed ARF's decision. "Welcome to the opposition!" its top leader, Raffi Hovannisian, told RFE/RL. ¶7. (SBU) Pro-government leaders responded to the decision by stating that the ARF is a weak party with a small voter base. Galust Sahakian, the Republican Party's parliamentary leader denied that ARF was kept in the dark about details of the negotiations. Armen Ashotian, another senior Republican lawmaker, claimed that negotiations were only a "pretext for ARF to leave the government and try to win more votes in the next elections." The leader of the People's party, Tigran Karapetyan, stated at a press conference, "The ARF has to leave the coalition, otherwise it will disappear as a party." -------------- LEADING WITH A MORAL COMPASS? -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The timing of the road map's announcement, released on the eve of the commemoration date of mass killings and deportations of Armenians from the Ottoman Empire in 1915, led to speculations about whether or not the "no preconditions" agreement was good for Armenia. Aravot and Hayots Ashkhar stated that Vladimir Karapetyan, former Spokesperson of the MFA and now foreign policy spokesperson of the Armenian National Congress, accused the Armenian government of "helping Turkey in its efforts to stop the recognition of the 'genocide." Opposition daily Haykakan Zhamanak published the comments of the U.S. citizen Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies, (a think tank connected to the opposition Heritage Party),who named the road map "one of the most serious strategic mistakes of the Armenian government." The newspaper also concludes that by signing this document one day before President Obama's much anticipated commemoration remarks, Turkey ensured the word "genocide" would not be used in the U.S. President's speech. The ANC-affiliated opposition Peoples' Party of Armenia leader Stepan Demirchian said, "We support the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, but not at the expense of our national dignity." ¶9. (SBU) Independent Arminfo news agency reported that former Foreign Minister of Armenia, Vartan Oskanian, said in Beirut on April 24 that the "readiness to open a border with an uncompromising neighbor is a concession." "Stretching out the hand of cooperation to a government denying a crime committed by their predecessors is a compromise fraught with very serious consequences for our security," said Oskanian, who is allied with former President Kocharian. In regard to the road map, he said that, "If the adoption of such a document on the eve of April 24 was just a coincidence, it means that the Armenian authorities are indifferent to the pain of their people. But if they did it purposefully, based on somebody's proposal or even insistence, in hope that they might get something in exchange, it means that they have put up the 'Armenian Genocide' for sale, which is unacceptable." ¶10. (SBU) The Armenian government gave media outlets an obviously different viewpoint. Foreign Minister Nalbandian, in an interview given to independent Armenpress and reported on by Novoye Vremya, pro-government 168 Zham, Golos Armenii, Hayots Ashkhar and Hayastani Hanrapetutiun, stated that "President Obama's statement was a step forward. That statement contains very strong points and President Obama used the phrase 'Mets Yeghern.'...The normalization of relations does not put into question the fact of the 'genocide.' Why can't we do what Charles de Gaulle and Adenauer did? I am sure that such a day will come and the Armenian and Turkish leaderships will take that step." The interview was also aired on several TV channels. YEREVAN 00000286 003 OF 004 ¶11. (SBU) President Sargsian noted in his same speech to the NSC, "People say that publicizing the statement on the eve of April 24 could hinder international recognition of the 'genocide.' Just the opposite is true... The fact that the statement was made on the eve of April 24 proved that Turkey acknowledges the meaning of that day." In an interview with "Russia Today," covered by Aravot, Azg, Hayastani Hanrapetutiun, Hayots Askhar, Novoya Vremya and Golos Armenii, Sargsian further noted, "We base ourselves on the fact that there has been 'genocide,' but non-recognition of that 'genocide' by Turkey is not viewed by us as an insurmountable obstacle for the establishment of relations." -------------- Turkey - Clearing the Way or Hidden Agenda? -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Discussion of 1915 events by media outlets has included analyses of Turkey's role in the region, reaction to Turkish press reports on the road map, and concerns over the road map's impact on negotiations in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Commenting on the road map, the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS) statement reads in part, "Such a strategic error raises further questions, particularly when the security and status of Nagorno-Karabakh remain unresolved." In another critical article, Haykakan Zhamanak concluded that "From now on, Turkey will not only be involved in the Karabakh conflict settlement process, but Ankara itself will decide the further developments." ¶13. (SBU) Aravot published a front page editorial discussing RFE/RL's report on the road map and reaction of the Turkish press. RFE/RL wrote, "According to the 'Sabah' daily, Armenia will formally recognize its existing border with Turkey and agree to the formation of a joint commission of historians tasked with studying the mass killings of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. It said historians from other countries could also join the commission. Turkey will in return gradually establish full diplomatic relations with Armenia and reopen the Turkish-Armenian frontier closed it 1993." Aravot and RFE/RL report that, commenting on the "Sabah" report, Armenian FM spokesman Tigran Balayan said, "One should trust information about such serious issues only if it comes from official sources." Aravot responded, "We would not have speculated on the points included in the document if they had been published officially. The sooner it happens the better, as anxious doubts - especially those created by Turkish propaganda - will multiply." Hayastani Hanrapetutiun reported that the Secretary of the National Security Council of Armenia, Artur Baghdasaryan, said Monday that information published in "Sabah" (Turkish newspaper) regarding the road map agreement has "nothing in common with reality." ¶14. (SBU) President Sargsian, in his interview with Russian press, noted, "We are in favor of having relations with Turkey without any preconditions... Until the recent period of time, everyone was convinced that we have significantly progressed, but recently there have been statements by the Prime Minister of Turkey to the effect that the Armenian-Turkish relations can improve if Armenia compromises on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. We view this as a step back from the existing agreements and as a precondition being put forward." He later noted during the NSC meeting, "Recently there have been many speculations on Armenian-Turkish relations being conditioned by Armenian-Azeri relations or concession on Karabakh as a precondition for regulation of Armenian-Turkish relations. Let me repeat once again, improvement of Armenian-Turkish relations is quite possible and it can have a positive impact on the Karabakh conflict settlement, but there can be no preconditions." ¶15. (SBU) In the most optimistic press reports, media quoted independent ter.am, that the first Turkish Ambassador to Armenia will be Ertan Tezgor, who will serve as Ambassador of Turkey to Georgia and Armenia. Aravot reported that President Gul will discuss the road map very soon with the Turkish National Security Council. ¶16. (SBU) Less press coverage was dedicated to Azerbaijan's reaction to the road map announcement. Hayastani Hanrapetutiun and Hayots Ashkhar reported that the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan discussed the road map during a phone call on Thursday. Aravot reported that Turkish President Gul stated on Friday that the establishment of diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia will have a positive impact on the whole region. Discussing Turkish relations with Azerbaijan, Gul said that relations between Ankara and Baku continue at the same level as always, "without any problems." -------------- YEREVAN 00000286 004 OF 004 COMMENT -------------- ¶17. (SBU) Press reporting and commentary was focused much more on the Armenia - Turkey road map than reaction to President Obama's April 24 address. This suggests that media outlets and perhaps the general public at large, while concerned about resolving historical questions, are also heavily invested in the settlement process and future prospects for peace in the region. YOVANOVITCH