SPEAKER LEANS FORWARD ON MARCH 1 DETAINEES,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 YEREVAN 000201 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM COE GG TU AJ RU AM SUBJECT: SPEAKER LEANS FORWARD ON MARCH 1 DETAINEES, ASSURES OF CLEAN MAYOR'S RACE, RAISES REGIONAL NEGOTIATIONS REF: A. 08 YEREVAN 864 ¶B. YEREVAN 26 YEREVAN 00000201 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: AMB. Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Without revealing specifics, National Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian seemed to signal dramatic new moves on releasing March 1 (and election-related) detainees in the upcoming weeks, now that the parliament has enacted the criminal code revisions negotiated with PACE. He indicated that the criminal code revisions would mean that charges would be dropped against most or all of the "Trial of Seven" defendants and others, with still more to be freed by pardons. It was unclear if this would mean that eventually all the detainees would be freed or simply a large percentage. ¶2. (C) Abrahamian reprised his reftel points on the importance of MCC continuing. The Ambassador highlighted that Armenia must fulfill its Ruling Justly commitments, and confided that the mood in Washington was not at all permissive on Armenia's continuing democratic failings. Ambassador said that the May 31 Yerevan election would be a big benchmark. Abrahamian again highlighted President Sargsian's commitment on Turkey and NK, working torward regional peace and stability, while complaining that Armenia got no financial help for the economic losses of the Georgia-Russia conflict, while Georgia got a rich U.S. payout. Abrahamian echoed earlier GOAM complaints about two items of wording in the human rights report. END SUMMARY ¶3. (C) PROGRESS ON POLITICAL DETAINEES?: National Assembly Speaker Hovik Abrahamian led off the March 20 conversation with Ambassador by extolling the fact that the National Assembly had earlier that week enacted revisions of Armenia's criminal code articles 225 and 300, in accordance with his negotiations with PACE co-rapportuers John Prescott and Georges Colombier. He said that President Sargsian should sign the revisions within a day or two, and this would put them into effect within the next two weeks. He said that these changes would lead to prosecutors dropping all article 225 and 300 charges against the "Trial of Seven" defendants. (NOTE: Two of the seven -- MPs Myasnik Malkhasian and Sasun Mikhailian -- have one other charge each against them in addition to articles 225 and 300. Malkhasian has a resisting arrest charge and Mikaelian a weapons possession charge. There is one other high-profile defendant, Gagik Jhangirian, who is not part of the "Trial of Seven" and who is charged only with resisting arrest. END NOTE) ¶4. (C) KINDLY PRESIDENT TO PARDON THE REST?: He said this would also have a "positive impact" on the roughly 60 other cases of March 1 and related defendents in jail or prison, saying that he personally was working hard to ensure that "no one would be in prison for his political views." He mentioned that some who were guilty of real, non-political crimes, such as weapons violations, must be punished appropriately by the courts. Abrahamian went on to note that the president is disposed to be very forward-leaning on issuing pardons or amnesties for many of these detainees, once the relevant trials are completed. He joked that President Sarsian's staff sometimes worried that the president is "too kind and soft" on these issues. Abrahamian said "the sooner the trials are complete, the sooner the political situation willl stabilize." Ambassador agreed, with the caveat that trials must be seen as fair by the Armenian people, and the law applied equally to everyone, to which Abrahamian agreed. The timeframe of all this was unclear, but it seemed that all of this would play out before the June MCC Board meeting. ¶5. (C) WANT TO GET IT DONE: Ambassador replied that it would be a very positive signal if Armenia manages to free all of these March 1 detainees in the near term, and not just the "Trial of Seven" but the rest of the roughly 60 as well. Abrahamian replied that Armenian leaders understand it is in their political interest, domestically and internationally, to resolve this issue. He said he and other officials realize that having the likes of Gagik Jhangirian (former deputy prosecutor general),Alexander Arzumanian (former foreign minister),and Myasnik Malkhasian (member of parliament),in prison is a cause of political discontent and one they would like to resolve. The president was unwilling to interfere with the judicial process while it was underway, but as soon as those processes are complete will be eager to "turn the page on March 1-2 in a way that everyone will be happy about." Ambassador welcomed this approach. YEREVAN 00000201 002.2 OF 004 ¶6. (C) TURKEY AND NAGORNO-KARABAKH: In agreeing with Abrahamian's praise of President Sargsian's "human approach" to the prospect of pardoning prisoners for their "mistakes," Ambassador noted that President Sargsian indeed seems to have an open mind to different points of view, whether on political prisoners, or Turkey relations or resolving the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Abrahamian replied that the National Assembly fully supports the president's approaches to negotiations with Turkey and Azerbaijan on these issues. Abrahamian said that Sargsian genuinely wants to achieve regional peace and stability through these negotiations. Others had questioned or criticized inviting Turkish President Gul to Yerevan last September, but Abrahamian supported this. Abrahamian said that normalizing relations with Turkey would make it easier to come to a resolution on Nagorno-Karabakh. Abrahamian noted that NK leaders in Stepankert often complain that they are excluded from the Minsk Group process, and that he himself had recieved such complaints on a recent visit to NK. Abrahamian then reiterated the importance of the Minsk Group, and said that achieving regional peace and stability would pay major economic dividends -- which is more important than ever in the context of the current worldwide economic crisis. ¶7. (C) NK LANGUAGE IN THE HRR: Abrahamian went on to complain about the language on NK in the 2008 State Department human rights report. He said that it angers Armenians that the report called NK a part of Azerbaijan. Ambassador responded that our policy is to help the two sides seek a balanced, negotiated resolution of the NK dispute based on the three principles of self-determination, territorial integrity, and non-use of force. ¶8. (C) DOUBLE STANDARDS? FINANCIAL COMPENSATIONS?: Abrahamian commented bitingly on Azerbaijan's recent referendum to eliminate term limits on President Ilham Aliyev. He said that if Armenia had passed such a referendum it would have been excoriated by the international community. He said that Armenia comes in for much tougher criticism than neighbors Azerbaijan and Georgia because it lacks either oil and gas or a strategic sea access (apparently meaning importance for oil/gas transit or military overflights),but that these double-standards are unfair. He complained that Armenia suffered $600 million in economic losses from the Russia-Georgia conflict and got no help from the West, while the United States had poured a billion dollars into Georgia. Ambassador replied that Russia had caused the crisis by invading Georgia, so it was only appropriate that Russia make Armenia whole for its losses, as it has done by announcing a $500 million credit to Armenia. The U.S. realized that Georgia would obviously not be compensated by Russia, and stepped into that breach. Abrahamian rejoindered that the Russian credit had nothing at all to do with the Russia-Georgia conflict, but with the economic crisis and joint projects the two countries would conduct in Armenia. ¶9. (C) HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT CRITICIZED; TIP ON TRACK: Aside from criticizing the NK language in the HRR, Abrahamian also echoed complaints we heard earlier from FM Nalbandian on the statement in the HRR that "Prostitution and sex tourism are legal in Armenia." Ambassador pointed out that FM Nalbandian had raised this point, and she had researched it and discovered that the GOAM is partially correct. While the statement is technically accurate as written -- prostitution and sex tourism are not criminal offenses -- it is perhaps not ideally phrased. Sex tourism is not an existing phenomenon in Armenia, and prostitution is a civil offense and subject to administrative fines. Ambassador undertook to modify the way this is phrased in next year's report. Ambassador also mentioned our satisfaction with recent Armenian progress on Trafficking in Persons, and that we hoped -- if current trends continue -- that Armenia might graduate from the TIP Tier Two Watch List this year. Abrahamian claimed credit for having launched the ministerial anti-TIP council in 2007. (COMMENT: This is disingenuous at best. We are unaware of any ministerial council ever meeting while Abrahamian was deputy prime minister, and certainly no such council accomplished anything on Abrahamian's watch. Abrahamian's successor as deputy prime minister has made the ministerial council into an active functioning body. END COMMENT) ¶10. (C) YEREVAN MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS: Ambassador noted that the upcoming May 31 Yerevan election would be a major political and democratic benchmark for Armenia, representing nearly half of Armenia's population. The Speaker replied that the election would be completely free and fair; the opposition would have full and equal access to television and other media. He said that he himself was engaged in ensuring the elections would be clean, and that the parliament's local YEREVAN 00000201 003.2 OF 004 government committee would act as election observers. It would be unacceptable to allow the upcoming election to be "a blemish on the country." ¶11. (C) OPPOSITION'S SUSPECT INTENTIONS?: Abrahamian predicted that no one party would have a majority, several parties winning seats in the council would have to form a coalition and select a mayor. He predicted that all four parties in the government coalition would each win seats in the city council, as would the Armenian National Congress and Heritage Party. He said it was odd that former President Ter-Petrossian had chosen to run for mayor. The job requires good management skills and familiarity with municipal governance challenges. Abrahamian commented that the only chance for any problems with the upcoming election would come from opposition provocations or determination to disrupt the election proceedings. He said "If Ter-Petrossian has honest intentions, I welcome him in the race." ¶12. (C) BAD INDICATORS ALREADY: Responding to the Ambassador's earlier expressions of concern about the indirect nature of the election, Abrahamian insisted that Armenian had "nothing in writing" from any European organization (Council of Europe, PACE, OSCE, etc) criticizing the model that Armenia had adopted. Ambassador commented that the "bonus" provision in the municipality law distorts voters' representation. She said that "if I were a voter voting for the party that surpasses a 40 percent plurality and wins the bonus of 10 percent more seats in the council, and you vote for a party that does not get this benefit, it means that my vote has been worth more than yours." This was in violation of the vote's principle of proportionality. She went on to note that appointing Gagik Beglarian to the mayorship immediately after he was selected as the ruling party candidate created the bad appearance that "the fix is in" on the upcoming race, and noted that elections in the recent past -- including Gagik Beglarian's August 2008 election to head the central Yerevan "Kentron" district -- had featured abuse of administrative resources and intimidation tactics. Ambassador said we would be watching for similar abuses in connection with the May 31 election. Abrahamian did not respond specifically to any of these points, as the conversation turned instead to MCC. ¶13. (C) MILLENNIUM CHALLENGES: Ambassador reported that the MCC Board had decided at its March session to continue the operational hold on the $60 million roads component of Armenia's MCC Compact. Abrahamian reprised almost verbatim his reftel comments that the MCC program benefits the rural poor, and Armenians would view the United States very negatively if the program were cut. He said this is particularly true in the current tough economic times, noting the expression that "you don't kick a man when he's down." ¶14. (C) TIME GROWS SHORT TO AVOID PENALTY: The Ambassador reiterated that the GOAM knew full well MCC was a conditional program, and a reward for countries with good performance and sound policies, and Armenia is lagging. She confided that some Board member had been ready to terminate the roads component already in March, and in fact some had suggested that the entire Armenian Compact be terminated, having already been given nine months to correct its Ruling Justly failings and having failed to do so. The June Board might take "irreversible actions" unless Armenia improves rapidly. 15 (C) THE CRITICAL TO-DO LIST: The Ambassador highlighted that everyone wants the MCC program to be able to continue and to be successful -- none more than she -- but that this would be difficult absent serious progress by the GOAM which will be persuasive to the Board. She said that release of the March 1 detainees would be a very positive step. We also need to see progress on media freedom and freedom of assembly, with the latter meaning both public rallies and an end to NSS actions to pressure hotels not to give meeting space to parties and NGOs. Abrahamian asked if the Ambassador could give a specific example. She replied that OSI's conference on human rights which she had addressed May 19 had been scheduled for the Marriott, but that the Marriott had cancelled the booking under pressure, requiring OSI to find another venue. Abrahamian promised to raise this point with the president. ¶16. (C) A PRO-FREEDOM GUY: Abrahamian said his position all along in government policy debates has been that full freedom of assembly must be allowed and political parties should be able to rally as they please. He commented that authorities had never refused the opposition permission to rally outright, only that the opposition had insisted on rallying in the central Freedom Square or Matenaderan, while the government had counter-proposed a site away from the center. YEREVAN 00000201 004.2 OF 004 But in any case his view was that the more the public gets to see and hear the oppposition speak, the less enamored they will be at Ter-Petrossian's lack of any real program or content. Ambassador agreed that the best strategy for the government would be to allow robust exposure for the opposition. ¶17. (C) COMMENT: Throughout most of the meeting, Abrahamian seemed relaxed, upbeat, and comfortable with himself and the situation. He grew pensive over Ambassador's pointed messages on MCC and the municipal electon, but overall projected every appearance of optimistic confidence that Armenia will get back on track in short order. He was strongly foreshadowing dramatic steps forward on the political detainees front -- though as yet we are unable to assess whether this will be as sweeping as we demand or simply something that seems bold by the lights of a post-Soviet mindset. Still, Abrahamian's strongly forward-leaning position suggests that we will see some kind of significant developments in the upcoming weeks, and we find this encouraging. ¶18. (C) COMMENT (CONTINUED): Other recent conversations with knowledgeable political insiders suggest that Abrahamian's star is rising. We are told that elites increasingly are turning to Abrahamian as the "go-to guy" to solve their problems for them, as the prime minister has seemed either unwilling or incapable of settling these issues to the satisfaction of oligarchs, party stalwarts, and various insider interests. His reputation as a behind-the-scenes problem-solver -- and the chits he is increasingly collecting from various elites and powerbrokers -- seem to be creating a growing power base of his own, separate from both the president and Abrahamian's erstwhile patron former President Kocharian. Bets are being placed that Abrahamian could become the nest Prime Minister -- and the next President. PENNINGTON