EMBASSY YEREVAN VALIDATION STUDY RESULTS FOR B1/B2

UNCLAS YEREVAN 000154 DEPARTMENT FOR CA/VO/F/P (MEEARL),CA/FPP (RBILLINGS),CA/FPP PASS KCC (FPM) AND DHS, DS/CR/V/G, EUR/CARC (CWRIGHT) MOSCOW FOR USCIS (SSINCLAIR-SMITH) FRANKFURT FOR RCO (KBROUGHAM) TBILISI FOR CONS (LHENDERSON) BAKU FOR CONS (WGRAY) NVC FOR FPM (BAUSTIN) SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS CMGT ASEC SMIG KFRD AM SUBJECT: EMBASSY YEREVAN VALIDATION STUDY RESULTS FOR B1/B2 ISSUANCES OF FALL 2007 REF: A) 08 YEREVAN 441 B) 07 YEREVAN 349 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Eight percent of tourist visa holders in Yerevan overstayed their visa in 2007, according to a validation study of nonimmigrant B1/B2 visa applicants who received visas from September 1 - November 30, 2007. This is an improvement from the previous year's overstay rate of 11%. Elderly female applicants continue to overstay at a rate significantly higher than all other applicant groups. For the period reviewed, Yerevan's overall B1/B2 refusal rate was 62%. End Summary. -------------- METHODOLOGY -------------- ¶2. (U) A total of 866 B1/B2 visas were issued in Yerevan from September 1, 2007 through November 30, 2007. Using the DHS Arrival and Departure Information System (ADIS) and targeted phone calls, Yerevan's Fraud Prevention Unit reviewed the travel history of 812 of these 866 B1/B2 issuances who entered the United States. ¶3. (U) Yerevan's previous two validation studies (reftel) surveyed B1/B2 issuances from September 1 - November 30. For comparison purposes, we once again focused on this date range which includes little seasonal variation in terms of type of issuances, issuance rates, or purpose of travel. The standard visa issuance for Armenian passport holders is a single entry, three-month validity visa (for reciprocity and cost reasons), so B1/B2 travelers issued between September 1 and November 30, 2007 should have returned from their U.S. visit by September 1, 2008. ¶4. (U) Yerevan's Fraud Prevention Unit (FPU) exported from the Consolidated Consular Database all non-immigrant visa issuances from Yerevan. FPU then sent this file to CA/FPP to be run against the DHS databases ADIS (Arrival Departure Information System) and ATS (Automatic Targeting System). The returned data was sorted by visa class, resulting in the 812 B1/B2 records reviewed. Arrival and departure records for the same traveler, logged within six months of one another, was considered evidence of good visa use, and on these records no further action was taken. For records with no recorded departure, FPU attempted to call the applicants to confirm whether they were still in the United States or, alternatively, had exited the United States but forgotten to submit their I-94 Arrival-Departure Record to Customs and Border Control at flight check-in. For applicants who had returned to Armenia without a departure record, FPU requested that they present their passports at the Consular Section for further verification of return. FPU's validation survey found that approximately 20% of travelers without departure records had, in fact, returned to Armenia. ¶5. (U) Post counted anyone who had not departed the United States after their maximum authorized six-month stay as an overstay. ADIS records reflect extensions or change of status, so post felt confident counting anyone who had not departed the United States after their maximum authorized stay (typically six months) as an overstay. A number of these overstays, however, could still have pending, approved or denied adjustment of status requests, as discussed below (see paragraph 15). -------------- ANALYSIS -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The study showed that of the 812 B1/B2 travelers reviewed, 747 returned within six months (92%),while 65 travelers (8%) overstayed their tourist visa issuance. Fifty- six applicants (6% of those issued) who received tourist visas did not use their visa. This percentage is higher than the previous year's 4% of issuances that did not use their tourist visa. ¶7. (SBU) These overstay results are an improvement over the most recent B1/B2 validation studies conducted for the same period in 2005 and 2006. The overstay rate improved from 11% for the 2006 period to 8% for the current 2007 period reviewed. ¶8. (SBU) Post's overall refusal rate for B1/B2 visa applicants for the reviewed period of September 1 - November 30, 2007 was 62% (NIV report 44). Post's B1/B2 refusal rate for the two prior years was 65% (2006) and 57% (2005). ¶9. (SBU) Women comprised 54% of post's 812 B1/B2 issuances, with men comprising only 46%. This slight gender imbalance among issuances may reflect the conventional wisdom at post that, due to traditional gender roles and poor employment opportunities at home, Armenian men are more likely than Armenian women to apply for tourist visas in order to work illegally as migrant workers in the United States. This may create for male applicants a higher standard that must be overcome than that for female applicants, for whom family in Armenia may be viewed as a more compelling tie. Below is a side-by-side comparison of the distribution of the 812 B1/B2 issued travelers versus the 65 B1/B2 overstays, when sorted by gender and age. --- All B1/B2 Issued Travelers | B1/B2 Overstays Gender>> Female Male | Female Male 0-15 2% 2% | 3% 0% 16-25 7% 5% | 9% 5% 26-35 11% 11% | 11% 12% 36-45 7% 7% | 6% 6% 46-55 13% 9% | 12% 6% 56+ 14% 11% | 22% 8% Total 54% 46% | 63% 37% --- ¶13. (SBU) The table shows that although women comprised 54% of B1/B2 issued travelers, they were a significantly higher 63% of all B1/B2 overstays. The age and gender distribution is largely similar among all issued travelers and B1/B2 overstays except in the 56+ Female category, where this demographic jumps from 14% of all B1/B2 issued travelers to 22% of B1/B2 overstays. ¶14. (SBU) The above data shows that women 56 years of age and older, i.e. the "grandma set" demographic, are much more likely to overstay than other issued demographics. This is not a new discovery. Post recognizes that it continues to struggle with determining what constitutes sufficiently strong ties for this demographic group. Anecdotally, age, set ways, and family ties to Armenia alone do not seem enough to keep this cohort from overstaying. Post conjectures that warmer weather, a Yerevan-like environment among the Glendale, California diaspora (where nearly all applicants want to go), and better healthcare from the California state Medicaid program Medi-Cal are significant inducements for some in this demographic group to overstay. For these reasons, post should vet these applicants just as stringently as younger, less established applicants. Conversely, post notes that a disproportionate number of our complaints are for refusals of elderly women (with e-mails usually written by the U.S. citizen son-in-law of the applicant). ¶15. (SBU) As noted above, post considered any traveler who stayed greater than six months as an overstay for the purposes of this study. This overstay cohort thus includes those who applied for adjustments of status while in the United States. Post considers these adjustments of status as derogatory for the purpose of this study because they are actions taken by applicants who did not keep to their travel plans as expressed to the Consular Officer at the time of their visa interview. Of the 65 overstays in this study, 22 travelers (34%) applied for adjustments of status. Four applications were denied, four were pending and 14 were approved as of this writing. Of the approved applications, seven were for B1/B2 extensions, four were for CR6 spouses of American citizens, and three were for IR0 parents of American citizens. Five of these approved adjustments (all three of the IR0s and two of the B1/B2 extensions),were granted to overstays within the 14 person "grandma set". -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Post is heartened by the improved overstay rate of 8%, but realizes the low overstay rate comes in part thanks to a high refusal rate that for the studied period reached 65%. Post will continue to carefully review older female applicants, cognizant of their higher propensity to overstay despite seemingly strong social and family ties to Armenia. Post thanks CAA/FP for its support in conducting this verification study. YOVANOVITCH