CALM EXPECTED, BUT CLASHES POSSIBLE, ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000148 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC CASC AM SUBJECT: CALM EXPECTED, BUT CLASHES POSSIBLE, ON ANNIVERSARY OF MARCH 1, 2008, POLITICAL VIOLENCE REF: YEREVAN 141 YEREVAN 00000148 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: AMB. Marie L. Yovanovitch, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: An opposition-organized rally and march planned for Sunday, March 1, to commemorate the violent political clashes one year ago, is expected to proceed calmly. Although the demonstration is proceeding without municipal approval, we do not perceive that either side has motives to precipitate trouble. However, the first anniversary of a traumatic event, the ongoing political tension, a worsening economic situation, and the inherent unpredictability of large crowds could combine to produce something unexpected. Reftel reported post's February 25 EAC meeting. We have cautioned the authorities and opposition alike that both sides bear responsibility for ensuring that the demonstration is peaceful. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) MARKING A PAINFUL ANNIVERSARY: The opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) has pressed ahead -- despite a municipal ban -- with plans for a major downtown rally in Yerevan to commemorate March 1, 2008. Political clashes left ten people dead, dozens injured, and led to a 20-day state of emergency, which saw Yerevan's streets patrolled by soldiers and riot police, opposition media blacked out, and highly restricted freedom of assembly. ANC representatives report they have produced and distributed 50,000 leaflets promoting the protest demonstration. We were provided a copy of the leaflet, which both informs about the plans (instructing participants to gather at 3:00pm) and on the back outlines appropriate conduct. The leaflet counsels demonstrators to avoid any confrontation with police or authorities, urging them to seek the assistance of a designated ANC representative who will negotiate with police in the event of any encounter or questions from authorities. ¶3. (C) PERMISSION DENIED: Authorities have denied the ANC permission to hold the demonstration, but the ANC contends that the planned demonstration is legal, because authorities failed to deny the application within 72 hours of its submission to city hall. The law on public demonstrations provides that if organizers are not informed in writing that a requested demonstration has been disapproved within 72 hours of application, the application is presumed to be approved. Yerevan authorities responded to the ANC about a day after the 72-hour period had ellapsed advising them that the proposed demonstration was denied at the requested downtown locations. ¶4. (C) VENUE GAMES: As has often been true in the past, authorities denied the ANC the right to use major downtown locations which traditionally have been used for public demonstrations, and instead proposed that the rally be held at the Republican Stadium, a much less trafficked area just outside the downtown core, some ten blocks from the requested location. (Our DC analogy is that it is as if organizers applied to demonstrate on the Mall, and the DC Government instead authorized them to rally at L'Enfant Plaza: the proposed space is theoretically practicable, but well off the beaten path, much lower profile, not traditionally a public demonstration site, and generally out of the public eye.) The ANC, as every time before, has rejected the stadium site alternative, and insists on holding it on the parklike approaches to the Matanaderan -- the site of Armenia's independence movement mass rallies in 1990, and subsequently has become a traditional spot for political rallies. (NOTE: The other traditional downtown spot -- Freedom aka Opera Square -- has been converted into a construction site; authorities conveniently launched a previously-unplanned project to build underground parking beneath the square immediately after President Sargsian's inauguration.) ¶5. (C) WHAT TO EXPECT: Embassy officers have spoken with a spectrum of contacts in recent weeks to assess the mood and expectations for the March 1 anniversary. The vast majority of our contacts expect the demonstration to proceed along the same lines as similar rallies held in spring, summer, and fall 2008. On most of those occasions, authorities had likewise banned the Matenaderan rallies, but allowed them to proceed anyway. The theory is that authorities prefer to keep the opposition rallies illegal so as to suppress turnout. Police also have historically blocked passenger buses and vans from entering Yerevan from the provinces on the day of an opposition rally. On February 27, the Armenian National Movement acting chairman (a member of the broader ANC coalition) confided to us that they had had quiet negotiations with senior police and prosecutors, and had indications that this coming March 1 rally would proceed undisturbed by authorities. This tracks with earlier comments from a range of opposition figures -- such as Leven YEREVAN 00000148 002.2 OF 003 Ter-Petrossian lieutenants Levon Zurabian, David Shahnazarian, and Avetis Avekian who met with Ambassador and A/DCM February 24 -- that they expect the event to proceed calmly. ¶6. (C) WHAT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME: The fact that this is the first anniversary of such a traumatic and emotional event adds an element of some unpredictability. While our perception is that the ANC has steadily lost public support over the past year -- having failed to achieve anything, or even to successfully get its own activisits out of jail -- there may be a significant cohort of people who want to come out and commemorate last year's events, even if they never were or are no longer ANC supporters. However, there is another event -- a candlelight vigil the evening of February 28, organized by the People's Party of Tigran Karapetian, who is not closely aligned with eitehr government or the main opposition -- which could draw off some of that category. It is also possible that other people might satisfy themselves by proceeding independently at some point during the day on March 1 to the site of the violent clashes to lay flowers. ¶7. (C) HERITAGE JOINS ANC RALLY: Another new factor is that the parliamentary opposition Heritage Party has decided to participate in the ANC-organized rally March 1. Our judgment is that this can be considered a positive sign for a peaceful rally, as we do not think that Heritage would join if it had any indication that things might get out of control. ¶8. (C) STEPPED UP POLICE RHETORIC: The national police chief, Major General Alik Sargsian, stepped up his public rhetoric against the rally February 27, saying "We (police) are filled with determination to prevent any violation of law, including blockage of traffic in the streets to realize this or that action." (This seems aimed at discouraging the planned march from Matenaderan across downtown to the site of the 2008 clashes to lay flowers and back by a different route) Sargsian went on to say "People can simply gather, honor the memory of victims of last year's events in Yerevan, and leave. Sargsian commented that police will be on high alert all day. ¶9. (C) PRIVATE CAUTIONS FROM POLICE: An embassy poloff who is married to an Armenian has a casual social acquantanceship with a mid-ranking officer in the police department. During a social call, when poloff made light-hearted reference to the upcoming March 1 rally, the officer grew very serious and urged poloff to stay far away from the demonstration. Poloff noted that the embassy frequently observes such events from the periphery, and the officer repeated a solemn warning to stay away, without elaborating. The same contact noted that the police department will be throwing its full manpower at this event. Poloff's contact has a back-office desk job, and rarely does any kind of duty on the street, but this coming March 1 he will be out there. ¶10. (C) EVERYONE'S VIDEO TAPING: Both police and opposition have let it be known that they will be systematically videotaping events on March 1. While opposition press have asserted the reason is to search for criminal suspects from last year's events who remain at large, others in government have told us that both sides have a motivation to have footage that would show who is really responsible in the event that scuffles or clashes break out. ¶11. (C) OUR CAUTIONS TO ALL SIDES: Ambassador has pointedly advised the Foreign Minister, the president's deputy chief of staff Vigen Sargsian, and opposition representatives Zurabian, Shahnazarian, and Avekian, that both sides share an obligation to preserve law and order, show restraint, and prevent violence from any side during the March 1 events. RSO and INL have delivered the same messages to the national police chief and the Yerevan police chief. All interlocutors have agreed with these points. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶12. (C) Per reftel, we have prepared the Embassy and American citizen communities and have advised all to avoid the center of town on Sunday. We nevertheless believe that the March 1 demonstrations will proceed in a more or less safe and orderly fashion, with only minor, non-violent incidents. It is not in the interests of either authorities or the opposition to precipitate clashes or unrest at this time. ¶13. (C) While the opposition may well hope for future unrest to further its desire to unseat the government -- which it YEREVAN 00000148 003.2 OF 003 considers illegitimate -- we have the clear impression that the opposition does not yet deem the time ripe. Opposition strategists, with varying degrees of frankness, have shared their belief that Armenia is headed for an acute economic crisis in the upcoming months, and they believe that the crisis will be the next big opportunity for them to galvanize popular opinion. In the meantime, it is in their interests to keep a lower profile, so that the government cannot blame them for causing any part of the economic pain by having fomented business-unfriendly unrest. ¶14. (C) The government, of course, is determined to present a face of peaceful normality to the world, as it works to protect itself from adverse PACE or MCC action, or other democracy/human rights criticism. All of this gives plenty of rational reasons why this March 1 demonstration is most likely to proceed without incident. However, we cannot dismiss the possibility of an unpredictable event leading to an unexpected and violent outcome. END COMMENT YOVANOVITCH