CAMEROON'S INCONVENIENT TRUTH: THE 2005 CENSUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 000903 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2019 TAGS: CM ECON PGOV SOCI SUBJECT: CAMEROON'S INCONVENIENT TRUTH: THE 2005 CENSUS REVEALS IMPORTANT CHANGES REF: YAOUNDE 504 Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott B. Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and (e). ¶1. (C) Summary: A contact in the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) office in Yaounde recently shared with us a confidential summary document of the 2005 census conducted by the UNFPA and the Government of Cameroon (GRC). The report was never released, apparently because of its political sensitivity. Only the third census done since independence, the survey estimated a total population of 18 million in 2008, expected to rise to 21.2 million by 2015. Population growth is depicted as relatively high, slowing in recent years because of low fertility and high infant, juvenile and maternal mortality. The census pointed to high growth in the three northern regions, despite evident migration of men from these and several other parts of the country. The study found rapid urbanization, including a doubling in size of Yaounde and Douala between 1987 and 2005. ¶2. (C) Summary continued: The census results have important political implications, suggesting that the Grand North and the major cities should be getting more resources and attention. Revelations of major population shifts would also have an impact on electoral districts, prompting questions about the state of voter registers. Because of its political sensitivities, we do not expect the government to publish this census for some time, if they decide to do so at all. The government claims to be factoring census results into planning, although there is no way to confirm this. Until the data is published, planning within the Cameroon government is likely to be out of sync with reality, possibly leading decision-makers into even greater difficulties with disgruntled, under-served populations. End summary. Background -------------- ¶3. (U) The UNFPA, the Cameroonian Census Bureau and the former Ministry of Planning and Territorial Administration conducted a national census on November 11-December 6, 2005, Cameroon's third census since independence in 1960 (previous censuses were in 1976 and 1987). The exercise employed over 17,000 census agents and covered 85% of the population, a slightly less representative sample than in previous censuses. The results are reportedly supported by post-census data. ¶4. (C) The results of this census have never been published. For the past four years, the international community and Cameroonian observers have pressed the GRC to publish the census, pointing out the difficulty of national planning without accurate demographic data. The Ambassador has raised the need to publish the census on numerous occasions at senior levels of government. Minister of Economy, Planning, and Rural Development Louis Paul Motaze told Ambassador that the census was awaiting approval from the presidency, which he thought was concerned that some information in the census had been manipulated by "elites." He assured Ambassador that census results were being factored into GRC long-term planning (reftel). The Big Picture: Growth in the North and the Cities -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) According to provisional census results, Cameroon's total population more than doubled in the past 30 years, from 7.6 million in 1976 to 10.5 million in 1987 and 17,123,688 in 2005. The census projects a total population of 18 million by January 2008 and 21.2 million by 2015 - an increase of about 20 percent over ten years. ¶6. (SBU) The most populous of Cameroon's ten regions (with over 2 million inhabitants) were the Extreme North (3.1 million people),Center (2.9 million, 56% of whom were in Yaounde) and Littoral (2.3 million, 74% of whom were in Douala),followed by the West (1.8 million),North West (1.7 million),North (1.6 million) and South West (1.3 million). The least populated regions were Adamaoua (about 887,000), the East (797,000) and the South (555,000). Overall population density was 36.7 inhabitants per square kilometer (up from 22.5 in 1987),with the most densely populated regions (in descending order) being the West, Littoral, North West and Extreme North regions. ¶7. (SBU) In descending order, Mfoundi Department (greater Yaounde),Wouri Department (greater Douala),and the Adamaoua, North and Extreme North regions had the highest YAOUNDE 00000903 002 OF 003 population growth from 1987-2005, while the Littoral (minus Douala),North West, Center (without Yaounde),and West had an average annual growth below 2%. According to the census summary, this reflects migration from the North West and West because of high population density and pressure on arable land, as well as pressure within the Littoral and Center to migrate to Douala and Yaounde. According to the census summary, these growth patterns lead to projections that in 2008, the most populous regions would be the Extreme North (18.2% of the total),West (10.3%),North (10.1%) and Douala (10.1%). A Story of Migration and Poverty -------------- ¶8. (SBU) While 50.6% of the total population is comprised of women and 49.4% of men, half of the regions (Adamaoua, North, and especially the Extreme North, Northwest and West) have significantly more women than men. According to the census summary, this largely reflects internal migration toward Yaounde, Douala and the agro-industrial areas of the South West region. ¶9. (SBU) The census found a rapid increase in urbanization, from 28% of the total population living in cities in 1976 to 37.9% in 1987 and 46.4% in 2005. The total number of inhabitants living in urban areas and the total number of cities with over 50,000 inhabitants doubled from 1987 to ¶2005. During this period, the population of Mfoundi Department (greater Yaounde) more than doubled to 1.64 million and the population of Wouri Department (greater Douala) more than doubled to 1.7 million. The next most populous cities, in descending order, were: Bafoussam, Garoua, Maroua, Bamenda, Ngaoundere, and Kumba. ¶10. (SBU) The census reported 2.7% average annual population growth between the last two censuses, with slower than average growth (2.5%) in the period 2002-2005. The average annual growth between the 1976 and 1987 censuses was slightly higher, at 2.8%. The 2005 census cites 1991-2004 government demographic data to argue that the slower population growth is explained in part by a drop in the fertility rate (from 5.8% in 1991 to 5% in 2004),a rise in infant mortality (65% to 74% during this period),and substantial increases in juvenile and maternal mortality - all reportedly linked to economic difficulties and rising unemployment. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) President Paul Biya and the ruling Cameroon Peoples Democratic Movement (CPDM) party are increasingly in campaign mode for the scheduled 2011 presidential elections (to be followed by parliamentary polls in 2012). Biya has called for jump-starting the economy to help avoid a repeat of nationwide riots in 2008 brought on by a combination of high prices, poverty and political discontent. The election and the presidential succession process will be a delicate balance, with interests in Biya's center and southern heartland competing against northerners eager to regain power (former President Ahmadou Ahidjo was from the North), frustrated westerners (predominantly the wealthy but widely resented ethnic Bamilekes) and the anglophone areas of the North West and South West, whose residents often feel marginalized. ¶12. (C) Most Cameroonian observers have surmised that President Biya was withholding the census for political reasons. The UNFPA summary reinforces this view. Biya is focused on politics, not economics. He may feel that releasing a census showing higher growth in the northern regions could weaken his political hand, undermine his ability to manipulate election results (the census is crucial for election planning),and lead to calls for redistributing wealth and power. The declining social indicators, rapid urbanization and gender disparities in some areas reinforce other evidence that rural poverty has been on the rise - also an uncomfortable truth in a more politically sensitive period. ¶13. (C) We can't evaluate the quality of the census and don't have a complete data set. The UNFPA contact who gave us the summary later called in a panic to say he wasn't supposed to give it to us because the government hadn't approved it and he urged us not to reveal that we had it. Given the political sensitivities of the report and the government's recalcitrance over the past four years, we don't expect to see the census published any time soon; the YAOUNDE 00000903 003 OF 003 presidency may try to doctor the final version or release it late enough to mute its political implications (such as possible changes to the voter register and/or redistricting for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections). The government may be using some of the census data in its economic and social sector planning. Until the data is published, however, most planning in Cameroon will likely be based on 22-year-old data that doesn't reflect the country's rapid urbanization and growing poverty, and the rising demographic importance of the north. PETERSON