Cameroon's Challenged Energy Sector

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 001068 SENSITIVE SIPDIS COMMERCE FOR ITA- K BURRESS TREASURY FOR PETERS AND BOYE E.O. 12958: TAGS: ENRG EINV ECON ETRD KCOR CM EPET SUBJECT: Cameroon's Challenged Energy Sector Ref A: Yaounde 514 Ref B: Yaounde 590 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Cameroon continues to plan for large power production projects. In the hydropower sector, agreements have been signed for financing the Lom Pangar dam project and the Chinese have stepped in to build Memve'ele dam. American-led power company AES-Sonel signed a deal to provide additional power to the ALUCAM aluminum plant, although it depends on resolving an outstanding disagreement over the financing for a planned gas-fired plant at Kribi. Against a backdrop of declining oil production, the GRC is searching (so far without much success) for natural gas and the Chinese have begun oil exploration in the Extreme North. Cameroon would like to negotiate an increase in the Chad-Cameroon pipeline transit fee. Despite the announcements and plans, significant new power and hydrocarbon production is unlikely in 2010. We expect to see continued power supply shortages in the coming year. End Summary. Hydropower Gets New Energy -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Despite Cameroon's status as the second best source of hydropower in Africa, it only exploits 530 of an estimated 8,000 megawatts of hydropower. In an attempt to improve this statistic, the long-awaited Lom Pangar Dam project (ref A) received pledges in November from donors and international financial institutions to the tune of $360 million. Initially, the dam was to come online in 2012 but an inability to arrange financing delayed the project. Minister of Energy and Water Michael Tomdio recently told Ambassador the reservoir should be filled by 2014, but outside observers believe 2016 is more likely. The project aims to improve Cameroon's power generation by normalizing the flow of water to other hydroelectric projects downstream. The American-led power company, AES Sonel, would benefit greatly from Lom Pangar as it perennially battles brownouts resulting from fluctuations in rainfall. ¶3. (SBU) Among many potential snags in Lom Pangar, including environmental and social reviews, is that the reservoir would submerge 22 kilometers of the Chad-Cameroon oil pipeline. (Note: The pipeline consortium is led by ExxonMobil and known as Tchad Oil Transportation Company, or TOTCO, in Chad, and the Cameroon Oil Transportation Company, or COTCO, in Cameroon. End Note.) COTCO favors replacing the current pipe with special pipe designed to be submerged under water, at a cost of around $50 million. According to COTCO, the GRC approved its initial plans for the pipeline despite the possibility, known at the time, that it would be submerged by the impoundment. COTCO Managing Director Peter Mathys recently told econoff the GRC will agree to pay for the modifications. ¶4. (SBU) In addition to Lom Pangar, the Cameroonian budget (septel) includes line items for pre-financing some hydroelectric projects, including about $2 million for the Memve'ele dam in the South Region. Chinese company Sinohydro has taken over the $795 million Memve'ele hydro project from British firm Globaleq. Globaleq had initially wanted to construct the dam as a "BOOT" project (build, own, operate, transfer) and transfer to Cameroon after 20 years. On July 24, the U.S. Trade and Development Agency launched a $600,000 feasibility study for a hydro plant in the Adamaoua Region. Despite these agreements and activity, additional significant hydropower production is years away. Oil Production in Sharp Decline, Chinese Exploring -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) Oil historically contributes approximately 20-30 percent to the Cameroonian government budget and 5-10 percent to GDP. On December 2, Cameroon's National Hydrocarbons Corporation (Societe Nationale des Hydrocarbures, or SNH) purchased full page ads in most major dailies predicting a significant drop for 2009 in overall production and, more specifically, oil sold for state revenue. SNH candidly revealed a production decrease of 13.77 percent and a 14.19 percent drop in the quantity of oil sold by the state. Such a decrease is much larger than the production decreases of 1.7 percent in 2008 and 2 percent in 2007, but not as bad as the 20 percent drop in 2006. Since SNH began publishing its production statistics in 2004, total production peaked at 40 million barrels in 2005 and will likely be no more than 27 million barrels in 2009. ¶6. (SBU) Twenty-five-year-old oil fields controlled by French company Total E and P Cameroun account for most of the drop in production. Total's fields generally make up over two thirds of Cameroonian oil production. Total Director General Pierre Bang told PolEcon Chief that production will remain at a level 10-15 percent below 2008 totals for at least the next few years. It did not decline earlier, he said, because of technological improvements enabling better exploitation of existing sites. Bang opined that most oil discoveries in Cameroonian territory were already made. Pecten Cameroon LLC's General Manager Jorg Kohnert recently told econoff that the company would be drilling a few new wells but didn't expect any increases in production either. Pecten controls about one fifth of Cameroonian oil production. ¶7. (SBU) SNH has announced new production sharing agreements, including with Glencore/Afex, Addax, and EurOil, but none have led to an appreciable increase in production yet. In April, SNH announced a production sharing agreement with China's Yan Chang Logone Development Holding Company Ltd., a subsidiary of Shaanxi Yan Petroleum Group Corporation (SYCPGC). The Chinese exploration company will acquire seismic data and drill one exploration well in the Zina and Makary blocks of the Logone Birni basin, in the Extreme North of Cameroon, near N'djamena, Chad. Total considered this permit, according to Bang, but declined to pursue it because any oil discovered is almost 600 kilometers away from the Chad-Cameroon oil pipeline and would require massive infrastructure expenses to transport; in addition, Chadian oil would always have precedence, according to the pipeline agreement, which creates an additional risk factor. Natural Gas Production Not Taking Off -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Cameroon has over 135 billion cubic meters in proven natural gas reserves. However, it has yet to produce any gas. Gas de France recently announced plans to develop gas in Cameroon. American company Noble Energy is exploring, but an American official in Cameroon told econoff recently that any gas found will have a difficult time getting to market since Cameroon doesn't have any storage, means of transport, or customers. Total's DG Pierre Bang added that recent speculation on the possibility of oil or gas in the Bakassi peninsula, near the Nigerian border, was a "dream and largely a myth." Spurred in part by recent U.S. Trade and Development Agency feasibility studies, SNH and the Ministry of Energy have big plans for storage and gas products pipeline infrastructure, but nothing has started construction. Additionally, the first envisioned customer of Cameroon's natural gas, an unbuilt electricity plant in Kribi, has been mired in a dispute over the price the power company, AES-Sonel, will charge to ALUCAM, Cameroon's aluminum smelter and largest electricity customer. The Oil Pipeline: Cameroon Wants More -------------- ¶9. (U) The Chad-Cameroon pipeline continues to provide an economic benefit to Cameroon. When the pipeline was built, from 2000 to 2003, the construction reportedly contributed 3- 5 percent additional GDP growth per year, according to the World Bank. COTCO notes the pipeline continues to provide significant economic benefit to the Cameroonian government, such as around $20 million per year in transit fees, $2-3 million in taxes per year, and around $3 million per year in dividends. COTCO employs 1,067 Cameroonians and only 96 expatriates in country. Since its launch in July, 2003, the Chad-Cameroon pipeline has pumped well over 300,000,000 barrels of crude oil from the Doba basin area in Chad to the floating offshore terminus near Kribi, Cameroon. ¶10. (SBU) While Cameroon reaps respectable economic benefits from the pipeline, it would like to re-negotiate the transit fee paid by COTCO for the right of way over its territory, in view of the windfall Chad and Exxon Mobil have received on the project. COTCO estimates that in the five years since the pipeline's launch, Chad has received more than twice the originally anticipated total revenue of the entire 25 year life of the project. COTCO General Manager Peter Mathys told econoff that during the planning phases of the project the revenues for Chad and Cameroon were estimated to be at a ratio of roughly three to one in favor of Chad. Today, the ratio is approaching 30 to one in favor of Chad, spurring Cameroon's desire to re-negotiate. Minister of Finance Essimi Menye assured COTCO such a re-negotiation would be completed in the first quarter of 2010. Mathys is not so optimistic and has requested more meetings in January to impress upon the GRC that the negotiations must also include the government of Chad. AES-Sonel Still Facing Government Hurdles -------------- ¶11. (SBU) American-led power concession AES-Sonel remains mired in a dispute with the GRC over a proposed gas-fired power plant in Kribi (ref B). The GRC trumpeted a price agreement signed in late November, finally allowing AES to increase the price of power it can charge the aluminum smelter in Edea operated by Cameroon's largest energy consumer, ALUCAM (owned by Rio Tinto). However, AES-Sonel interim General Manager Jean David Bile told Pol/Econ Chief that the dispute is far from resolved since the agreement requires AES-Sonel to produce an additional 50 megawatts of power by 2012 or face $20 million in penalties paid to ALUCAM. ¶12. (SBU) To address that demand, AES-Sonel made the agreement with ALUCAM contingent on bringing the Kribi power plant on line by the end of 2011. The $30 million in financing for construction must be in place by the end of 2009 to remain on schedule. AES-Sonel is willing to contribute its 56% share of the capital for the project, but its lenders want the GRC to guarantee that contribution against the GRC's ability to have all approvals, permits and other bankable documents in place by September 30, 2010. The GRC has not been willing to do so thus far, despite the Ambassador's written appeal to President Biya for a breakthrough by the end of the year. According to AES-Sonel, if the parties fail to reach some agreement by January 1, 2010, ALUCAM will no longer have a power supply agreement and the Kribi project will be delayed. Comment -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The complexity and inter-connectedness in the energy and power production sectors continue to swamp the capacity of the GRC. Bad governance and decision-making diffused among a plethora of ministries has combined with declining oil revenues and lack of infrastructure to produce a dim outlook for the energy sector in ¶2010. The re-negotiation of the pipeline transit fee won't improve the outlook significantly, as the fee currently accounts for only 0.2% of government revenue. The significant drop in oil revenues (from the lower production and lower world prices) will hurt the government budget (which we will analyze septel). ¶14. (SBU) AES-Sonel launched an 86 megawatt heavy fuel oil power plant in Douala (Dibamba) on December 15, which is designed to help bridge supply gaps. However, no significant new power generation is expected to come online in 2010. In June, President Biya gave his Cabinet six months to make real progress in power generation and infrastructure. While this spurred some new efforts that could reap benefits in several years, ministers won't be able to show him much more than promises and agreements in early 2010. As a result, people in Cameroon will face continued power shortages for at least the coming year. GARVEY