NEW ZEALAND MFAT BRIEFS ON FIJI'S "BLEAK" SITUATION

UNCLAS WELLINGTON 000095 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL FJ NZ SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND MFAT BRIEFS ON FIJI'S "BLEAK" SITUATION ¶1. (SBU) Deputy Secretary Chris Seed invited resident chiefs of mission to New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) for an update on developments in Fiji. After reviewing recent developments, Seed concluded that "these actions demonstrate that Commodore Bainimarama has no intention of restoring Fiji to democracy." His five year timeframe for elections is simply intended to push any restoration of democracy into "the far distant future." No longer could Bainimarama's regime be referred to as "an interim government;" it was simply "a military supported regime." Fiji's suspension from the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) and the Commonwealth was now inevitable. Fiji's future, he said, is "bleak." ¶2. (SBU) PIF Secretary General Slade and leaders, including New Zealand Foreign Minister McCully, were currently consulting among themselves about next steps. One option being discussed was suspending Fiji before May 1. Another topic was the role of the PIF Ministerial Contact Group after Fiji is suspended. New Zealand considered that the group continues to have a vital role in monitoring developments in Fiji. ¶3. (SBU) FM McCully has issued two statements condemning the abrogation of the Fiji constitution and Bainimarama's reappointment (both emailed to EAP/ANP). New Zealand is consulting with the PIF, the Commonwealth, and other international partners about additional steps to maintain pressure on Fiji to move toward democracy, although Seed conceded that there appeared to be few additional steps available. The GNZ would extend its travel sanctions to President Iloilo because of his role in suspending the constitution and reappointing Bainimarama. It would, however, continue its NZD 5 million assistance program because it "supports ordinary people." For the same reason it would avoid any trade sanctions. ¶4. (SBU) In response to questions, Seed said that New Zealand would not urge travelers to avoid Fiji, simply to exercise caution. He said that was no credible evidence that the Fiji military was close to splitting. He acknowledged that New Zealand is concerned about PIF solidarity and is trying to assess how serious the problem might be. KEEGAN