HIGH STAKES IN RACE FOR HELEN CLARK'S SEAT

UNCLAS WELLINGTON 000105 C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (SPACE EACH PARA) SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR STATE FOR EAP/ANP PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL NZ SUBJECT: HIGH STAKES IN RACE FOR HELEN CLARK'S SEAT ¶1. (SBU) Summary. On June 13, voters in the traditionally safe Labour Party electorate of Mt. Albert in inner-Auckland will decide who will succeed former Prime Minister Helen Clark as its member of parliament. Of the main contenders, only the Green Party has selected its by-election candidate with National and Labour still to decide theirs. This race has captured national attention like none before. Even if the incumbent Labour Party holds the seat, it will likely have a substantially reduced majority which in itself would deliver a devastating blow to the troubled party and its low-polling leader Phil Goff. For the popular governing National Party, a first-ever win in Mt. Albert would represent a considerable shift in NZ's political tectonic plates and further tighten PM John Key's grip on NZ politics. End Summary. Contest for Former PM Clark's Seat -------------- ¶2. (SBU) A June 13 by-election in the Mt. Albert electorate will decide who will fill the seat left vacant by former Prime Minister Helen Clark's resignation from parliament. Clark, who became the new Administrator of United Nations Development Program on April 27, held a 10,350 majority at the 2008 election but the Labour Party's lead over the National Party in the separate party vote was a mere 2,426. That showed that while Clark remained personally popular, the choice between the main parties was much closer. Party nominations have to be sent to the Chief Electoral Officer by May ¶19. Although the Green Party has decided on its candidate, both National and Labour are still involved in selecting their candidates. Not Your Average By-Election -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Few, if any, by-elections in recent New Zealand political history have generated as much interest as the Mt. Albert race. Clark held the seat for 27 years and the Mt. Albert voter has never sent anyone but a Labour candidate to Wellington. Arguably, a safer Labour seat could not be found in NZ. However, Clark's departure has left a huge void within Labour and in her former electorate. Under the new leadership of Phil Goff, Labour has struggled to emerge from its November 2008 election loss with much, if any, renewed strength. A loss in Mt. Albert would strike a debilitating blow to the party's political prospects and Goff's leadership. Moreover, it will be massively embarrassing for the party and, of course, for Clark personally. Key Tries to Lower Expectations of National Win -------------- -- ¶4. (SBU) National is expected to fight hard to win the seat with Key planning to personally play a significant role in the campaign. Despite his party's and his own popularity, Key continues to lower expectations of a National win in Mt. Albert. Key has told the media that he considers it a safe Labour seat. National is expected to nominate freshman party list MP Melissa Lee as its candidate. Prior to entering parliament at the 2008 elections, South Korea-born Lee was an Auckland television journalist. Highly regarded by National, Lee is considered a rising star in NZ politics and is expected to be an energetic campaigner. Former UN Official Frontrunner for Labour -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Labour leader Phil Goff remains bullish about Labour's prospects due to his party's history in Mt. Albert and an established and capable local party organization. Although Labour is presently conducting an in-house candidate selection process, Goff and party workers have already started campaigning for the Labour vote on the streets of Mt. Albert. The consensus among political analysts is that former UN official David Shearer will be Labour's most likely candidate in the Mt. Albert race. Shearer is a former foreign policy adviser to Goff and enjoys the backing of his former boss. Shearer left his position as Deputy Special Representative to Iraq for United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to run in Mt. Albert. As a former UN diplomat, Shearer offers the electorate a different type of Labour candidate. The other party candidates come from the traditional Labour Party recruitment beds of union work, academia and political activism. ¶6. (SBU) Shearer has, however, been out of the country since 2003, and local delegates, who have a say in choosing the candidate, may prefer someone who has been active in the electorate. Nevertheless, it will come as a surprise to many if Shearer is not chosen as the party's standard bearer since most analysts believe he would not have left his plum UN job without a guarantee of running by Labour leadership. Historically, Shearer has not done well in actual elections. In the 2002 election, which Labour won handsomely, Shearer ran unsuccessfully for the Whangarei seat. Uncertainty, Hesitation Typify Labour's Selection -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Shearer was a last-minute nomination. Until then, highly-regarded Labour freshman MP Phil Twyford, currently in parliament on his party's list, was originally feted to replace Clark. However, Twyford, another high-ranking former international aid official, withdrew his name from consideration very late in the game. If Twyford had run and won the Mt. Albert seat, his place on the Labour's party list would have been cancelled out. This would have resulted in the automatic return to parliament of the next person on that list, the deeply unpopular Judith Tizard who famously lost Auckland Central seat in 2008. Journalists ranked Tizard as one of the poorest performers in the last Parliament. ¶8. (SBU) Given the potential scenario of Tizard's return, right-wing bloggers instigated a "Vote Twyford, get Tizard" campaign and portrayed it as a problem for both Labour and Goff whose desire to rejuvenate a tired-looking Labour Party would be undermined by return of the long-serving Tizard. Even left-wing blogs featured comments by Labour supporters who fretted about Tizard's possible return to Parliament as a list MP. Greens Could Eat into Labour Vote -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The Green Party has put forward its young and eager co-leader Russel Norman as its candidate in the Mt. Albert by-election. The Greens feign bullishness about Norman's prospects because Mt. Albert has a high concentration of Green Party supporters. In two of the last four elections, the Greens have just barely managed to reach the necessary five percent party vote needed to return to Parliament. They are desperately seeking the safety net of an electorate seat and are the only party in Parliament without one. If the Greens drop below five percent with no electorate seat they are out of Parliament, as happened to former Foreign Minister Winston Peters' New Zealand First party last November. ¶10. (SBU) Left-leaning Mt. Albert voters will be mindful that it is also almost impossible for Labour to be able to form a future Government unless the Greens are in Parliament. Therefore, it is entirely possible that a portion of this voting bloc will cast ballots for Norman in order to better secure a Labour-Green government in the future. Historically, this kind of 'strategic' voting has meant that minor parties do better in by-elections. If that happens here the center-left vote will likely be split which could allow for an opening for National. Comment -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Labour should hold Mt. Albert despite likely inroads from the Greens; however, few believe a Labour candidate will be the shoo-in that Clark was. If Shearer wins the Labour nomination, his record of achievement and UN service would be very attractive to voters. Moreover, the multi-ethnic and working class Mt. Albert electorate is still fertile Labour ground. The Greens have a devoted following but generally lack the party organization needed to carry an electorate. National will have a capable and media savvy candidate in Lee, who has strong local credentials. Labour and Phil Goff have most to lose from a National upset, particularly if David Shearer is the candidate since he is clearly pegged as Goff's man. A National upset could instigate a possible Labour Caucus challenge to Goff's leadership, given that some Labour supporters questioned if he had been the right choice to succeed Clark. End Comment. Keegan