POLISH APPROACH TO CFE SIMILAR TO U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 000932 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2019 TAGS: KCFE PARM PREL NATO PL SUBJECT: POLISH APPROACH TO CFE SIMILAR TO U.S. REF: STATE 92528 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Craig M. Conway for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Officials at the MFA Security Policy Department appreciated reftel debriefing on bilateral U.S.-Russia CFE discussions and look forward to a more detailed discussion at next week's High Level Task Force (HLTF) meeting. GOP views on resolving the current impasse with Russia parallel U.S. views, according to Security Policy Department First Counselor Mieczyslaw Kuzinski. He noted that Warsaw would very much like to retain CFE, but the Alliance might soon be forced to consider other options, including facing the hard reality that CFE will lapse completely in practical terms. Kuzinski asserted that CFE had already lost much of its relevance as a confidence-building mechanism as a result of the Russian suspension. He gave the Treaty only "another two to three years" before most Allies lose all interest in reaching a compromise with Moscow. Nonetheless, it is important to maintain the dialogue not only to find an acceptable middle course for CFE and Adapted CFE, but also to avoid the prospect of negotiating, on Moscow's terms, Russian proposals for a new security architecture in Europe. Kuzinski speculated that Moscow might also be marking time on CFE until the Russians see what sort of agreement they will be able to reach with the U.S. on missile defense and post-START arrangements. ¶2. (C) Kuzinski said the GOP had no specific suggestions for breaking the impasse, nor did the Poles have high expectations that next week's HLTF meeting would produce any "brilliant ideas" from the Allies. In the meantime, Kuzinski argued that the Alliance should continue to hold the line on flank limitations despite Russia's strong opposition. The principle of solidarity demands that the Alliance should not make any concessions on this point at the expense of countries like Turkey. He added that Russia had made this issue a non-starter for NATO, particularly in the wake of last year's conflict with Georgia. ¶3. (C) Finally, Kuzinski maintained that provisional or partial implementation of the Adapted CFE Treaty might be a problem for many of the European Allies. He explained that the legal systems in these countries did not provide for less than full implementation. However, he said Poland would welcome further suggestions concerning this option. ASHE