LAW AND JUSTICE (PIS) TO PRESENT "NEW FACE" AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000082 SIPDIS EUR/CE (LOCHMAN AND MORRIS) E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PL SUBJECT: LAW AND JUSTICE (PIS) TO PRESENT "NEW FACE" AT PARTY CONGRESS REF: WARSAW 33 Classified By: Political Counselor Daniel Sainz for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. SUMMARY: With a new media strategy and a new platform designed to present a "complete party" to Polish voters, members of the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) are increasingly confident about their prospects for success in June 2009 elections to the European Parliament -- widely advertised as the first stage of an effort to re-elect President Kaczynski in 2010 and return to power in the 2011 parliamentary vote. PiS members are convinced that the governing Civic Platform (PO) has failed to deliver on campaign promises and is unprepared to deal with expected fallout from the global economic crisis. The party is billing its January 30 conference as a forum for serious discussion, but PiS contacts confide that the congress will be more akin to a "Polish Brighton," designed to garner favorable media attention. END SUMMARY. AS ECONOMIC CLOUDS GATHER, PiS PLANS RETURN TO POWER ¶2. (SBU) Fourteen months after being voted out of power, the populist Law and Justice (PiS) is Poland's second strongest political party, one that remains bitterly opposed to PM Tusk's liberal, center-right Civic Platform (PO). Although he consistently polls as one of the country's least popular and least trusted politicians, PiS chair (and former PM) Jaroslaw Kaczynski maintains firm control of the party. Right-wing commentators -- along with political adversaries Kaczynski has forced out of the party -- have called on him to step down as party chair, arguing that he has kept PiS from reinventing itself. Critics complain that PiS no longer focuses on issues, relying instead on harsh rhetoric and divide-and-conquer tactics to maintain public support. Recent media commentary has also suggested that President Lech Kaczynski will have to "step out of his twin brother's shadow" if he hopes to win re-election in 2010. ¶3. (C) Late last year, Jaroslaw Kaczynski went into seclusion to draft a new party platform, which will be unveiled at a January 30 party congress in Krakow. In a January 9 meeting with the Ambassador (reftel),Kaczynski conveyed a sense of quiet confidence, particularly on his party's prospects for returning to power. Decrying "groundless attacks" by the media, Kaczynski said PiS had learned valuable lessons that have since informed the party's media strategy. In public statements, PiS officials have said the party's new platform will focus on counteracting the effects of the global economic crisis. PiS' January 9 preview of its economic crisis prescriptions in the Sejm included increased spending for the poor, a lower VAT on food, better absorption of EU funds, and government support for the residential mortgage market. JAROSLAW KACZYNSKI: A SOFTER LOOK, BUT STILL GUNNING FOR CONSPIRATORS AND GERMANS ¶4. (C) Recent PiS conventions have been modeled on U.S. political conventions, while the January 30 party congress will follow the British example. According to Pawel Poncyljusz, a PiS MP who is reportedly close to Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the two-day PiS congress will be a "Polish Brighton," focused mainly on generating positive media attention. PiS MP Elzbieta Jakubiak, another Kaczynski protege, added that PiS hopes to present a softer image. Jakubiak said Kaczynski held lengthy meetings with PiS spin-meisters Adam Bielan and Mariusz Kaminski to develop a new media strategy. The problem, Jakubiak explained, is that both Kaczynskis see themselves as truth-tellers; they have to find a way to tell the truth without coming across as hostile or combative. Kaczynski has worked to build key media relationships. Image consultants have coached him to smile more, and he now sports tailored suits, ties that match his eye color, and a suntan. ¶5. (C) Poncyljusz told us Kaczynski hopes to present a "different face" of the party in Krakow. The new platform will showcase PiS as a "complete party," focused not solely on a social and moral agenda, but also on economic development, the global economic crisis, and energy security. Discussion panels will be devoted to each of these topics, although panel discussion will not impact the party's platform, which Kaczynski has already drafted. Kaczynski will deliver speeches at the beginning and end of the congress. Poncyljusz noted that President Kaczynski had not been invited to the congress. ¶6. (C) Kaczynski's three-pillar theme will be 'Modern WARSAW 00000082 002 OF 002 Poland--Social Poland--Moral Poland.' Fear not, Poncyljusz laughed, "the attacks on the Uklad (Network) will continue." Poncyljusz said none of Kaczynski's proposals are new, only the emphasis has changed. He noted that many ideas proposed by PiS were later adopted by PO -- e.g., PO shelved former Regional Development Minister Gesicka's (PiS) strategy on improving absorption of EU funds in November 2007, only to repackage and reintroduce it later. Poncyljusz also argued that PiS was the first party to speak out in favor of nuclear and renewable energy. Jakubiak added that PiS would also attack PO reforms aimed at decentralization. Such an approach works in Germany, with its strong tradition of regional power bases in the lander, "but Poland needs a strong central government." In a sound byte that refers to his German bete noire, Jaroslaw Kaczynski has warned that Poland must not be "lander-ized." ¶7. (C) Poncyljusz cautioned that the change would be gradual. According to Jakubiak, morale within PiS is on the rise, in large part because PO hasn't been as successful in advancing its reform agenda as the PiS government was. PiS MP Andrzej Adamczyk said PiS's new emphasis on the economy is a response to PO's failure to recognize the impact of the financial crisis in Poland and respond accordingly. In contrast to Jakubiak and Poncyljusz, Adamczyk insisted the congress would be a "forum for serious discussion," not a media circus. COMMENT: Media have attributed the PiS political committee's decision -- i.e., Kaczynski's decision -- to end its boycott of independent television network TVN to Kaczynski's desire for maximum media coverage. END COMMENT. AIMING FOR A TWO-PARTY SYSTEM ¶8. (C) PiS contacts were optimistic about the party's prospects in June 2009 elections to the European Parliament (EP). Adamczyk hinted there is a strong likelihood that former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro would headline the PiS list in Krakow. Jakubiak said the smaller parties would probably not surpass the 5% electoral threshold for parliamentary representation, noting that under the government's plan to end public financing for campaigns, small parties would gradually disappear. "Our dream is a two-party system," Jakubiak said, a sentiment shared by Adamczyk. Jakubiak predicted that PiS and PO would both emerge from EP elections in a stronger position. She argued the only other party that will surpass the electoral threshold is the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD),which will only win a few seats. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: Although right-wing commentators continue to call for Jaroslaw Kaczynski's head, our PiS contacts insist that nobody else has the organizational skills needed to keep PiS's many competing factions -- and voices -- united. For now, Kaczynski remains firmly in control of the party, and as reported reftel, appears supremely confident about his party's prospects for the future, a sentiment Kaczynski repeated in media interviews over the weekend. END COMMENT. ¶10. (U) This message was coordinated with ConGen Krakow. ASHE