POLES HOST DALAI LAMA, RILE CHINESE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000563

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE, EAP/CM, DRL/AWH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2019
TAGS: PREL PHUM PL CH
SUBJECT: POLES HOST DALAI LAMA, RILE CHINESE

Classified By: Political Counselor F. Daniel Sainz for Reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jie Chi
warned Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski on May 26 that Polish
support for the Dalai Lama could impede the improvement of
bilateral ties. The Chinese appear to be holding off on
senior visits to Poland this year. The Polish government
believes the Dalai Lama's return visit to Poland in July --
to accept honorary Polish citizenship -- is too soon after
his December visit, and will not offer senior level meetings.
The MFA will also recommend that President Lech Kaczynski
not meet with the Dalai Lama, but Kaczynski may seek to
distinguish himself from the Prime Minister as a more
principled and committed anti-Communist. The GoP continues
to seek a balance on Tibet/China policies; PM Tusk boycotted
the Beijing Olympics opening ceremonies due to concerns over
Tibet, but opted not to raise human rights issues during an
October 2008 visit to China. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jie Chi "strongly
warned" Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski that Poland's association
with the Dalai Lama would complicate further improvement in
bilateral relations. The two ministers, who met May 26 on
the margins of the Asia-Europe Foreign Ministers meeting in
Hanoi, focused mainly on bilateral issues, especially trade,
investment and commemoration this year of the two countries'
60 years of diplomatic relations. However, an MFA official
told us that Yang's "lecture" on the Dalai Lama overshadowed
the otherwise friendly atmospherics between the two ministers.


3. (C) Konrad Maziarz of the MFA's Asia-Pacific Department
told us that the Dalai Lama had tentatively agreed to come to
Warsaw for one day on July 29 to accept honorary citizenship,
which the Warsaw City Council had unanimously approved last
month. Although the GoP would not be involved in the visit,
the MFA said it was too soon after the Dalai Lama's December
visit to Poland, which received substantial media coverage.
At that time, Maziarz recalled, the Dalai Lama traveled to
several Polish cities. PM Donald Tusk met in Gdansk with the
Dalai Lama, as did other senior Polish officials and
parliamentarians in Warsaw. The meeting with President Lech
Kaczynski was billed as "private," not official. The Chinese
government had officially protested that visit, and the MFA
likewise called in the Polish ambassador in Beijing to
protest the decision to confer honorary citizenship on the
Dalai Lama.


4. (C) The MFA hoped to minimize the political impact of the
Dalai Lama's impending visit. According to Maziarz, no
senior GoP official will meet with him this time, and the MFA
will recommend against any meetings at the presidential
chancellery. Warsaw does not expect damage to the upward
trend in economic ties, but Maziarz acknowledged that Beijing
was likely to retaliate by not sending a senior official to
any 60th anniversary events. The Chinese will also probably
decline the Poles' invitation to Chinese PM Wen Jia Bao (at
the last minute, Wen canceled a scheduled visit to Poland
after the Prague Summit) and Foreign Minister Yang. Maziarz
said decisions to decline such invitations could also be due
to Poland's low-key criticism of human rights abuses and the
situation in Tibet. In a conversation with Poloff, Liu Yan,
Political Officer at the Chinese Embassy here, confirmed that
senior Chinese visits were unlikely this year because of
Beijing's concerns about the Dalai Lama.


5. (C) Maziarz said Poland remained optimistic about
improvements in bilateral ties, particularly in the form of
increased Chinese investment. There is currently
approximately USD 250 million of Polish investment in China,
but less than USD 100 million of Chinese investment in
Poland. According to Maziarz, Chinese investment would help
diversify Poland's economic and trade ties and hedge against
the effects of recession, especially unemployment. Maziarz
said Warsaw hoped that Wen would come with an entourage of
influential businessmen. But according to the Chinese
Embassy's Liu, Poland's economic attractions are more
limited. In particular, Liu thought Poland did not have many
exports that China could not obtain more cheaply elsewhere.
Nonetheless, she said increased cooperation in other areas
was possible, especially in long-term language training and

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cultural exchange programs.


6. (C) COMMENT: Polish policy has vacillated between
forthright criticism of abuses in Tibet and deference to
Chinese government sensitivities. Prime Minister Tusk
announced in advance that he would not attend the opening
Olympic ceremonies in Beijing last year, then stuck to his
position even as other European leaders reneged on similar
pledges to boycott the opening. Later, during his four-day
visit to China in October 2008, Tusk did not raise human
rights in meetings with the Chinese President or Prime
Minister. Similarly, the GoP has sought to support the Dalai
Lama, but not so stridently as to offend Beijing. As for the
President, he may well reject MFA advice to steer clear of
the Dalai Lama during this upcoming visit, since he sees
himself as a more principled, more stalwart foe of communism
than the Prime Minister.
ASHE