KACZYNSKI AND YUSHCHENKO DISCUSS UKRAINE-RUSSIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000054 SIPDIS FOR EUR/CE AND EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2019 TAGS: PREL ENRG EPET UP PL SUBJECT: KACZYNSKI AND YUSHCHENKO DISCUSS UKRAINE-RUSSIA GAS DISPUTE Classified By: DCM Quanrud. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY ¶1. (C) During his January 14 meeting with President Kaczynski in Wisla, Poland, Ukrainian President Yushchenko was reportedly agitated and adamant about the need for EU support. According to advisors in the Presidential Chancellery, the most important outcome was Czech FM Topolanek and European Commission President Barroso's agreement to hold a special summit in Prague with Ukrainian and Russian participation. Yushchenko and Ukrainian PM Tymoshenko were reportedly in frequent contact by telephone during the meeting. Presidential advisors also insisted that FM Sikorski, who participated at Kaczynski's request, was fully supportive of the President's approach. Kaczynski urged Yushchenko to take "technical gas" needed to heat Ukrainian pipelines out of Ukrainian storage in order to show good will. Presidential advisors asked that the USG reinforce this message. ¶2. (C) According to Presidential Chancellery Deputy Director for Foreign Affairs Kazimierz Kuberski and Ukraine desk officer Maciej Jakubik (who was in the meeting as notetaker) President Kaczynski's goal was to show support for Ukraine, which is in a much weaker position. It is clear, Kuberski said, that Russia is using gas to exert political influence, destabilize Ukraine's government, and aggravate tensions between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko. Kaczynski believes Russia is intent on taking control of Ukraine's entire gas infrastructure. Poland views Russia's request to place international observers at pumping stations as legitimate, but not its request for observers at Ukrainian storage facilities and on pipelines only for internal distribution. ¶3. (C) As reported in the media, Kaczynski and Yushchenko placed phone calls to Czech PM Topolanek (twice) and European Commission President Barroso during the meeting -- Kaczynski has been in daily contact with Topolanek since the dispute began -- and secured agreement to hold an EU special summit in Prague with Russian and Ukrainian participation. "TECHNICAL GAS" IS THE MAIN PROBLEM ¶4. (C) Yushchenko told Kaczynski the main problem is the "technical gas" issue -- Ukraine needs 5-7% of the gas transported to heat pipelines and pumping stations. If total volume is 300 million cubic meters (mcm) per day, Ukraine needs 20 mcm worth of "technical gas." Unfortunately, the "technical gas" issue was not addressed in Saturday's agreement negotiated by Topolanek. While Russia claims Ukraine is required to use its own resources to heat pipelines and pumping stations, Ukraine argues Gazprom should provide it, or subtract it from the transit gas volume. Russia and Ukraine have produced contradictory documents to back their positions. "Gazprom's gas deals are not exactly transparent," Jakubik said. "It is difficult to determine which side is correct." MORE VOLUME NEEDED TO PREVENT BACKFLOW ¶5. (C) In addition, Yushchenko noted that, while Russia has technically started to pump gas, it is only pumping through one of five connectors. That connector is linked with the pipeline that Ukraine uses to transport gas from storage facilities (the vast majority of which are in the west and contain 17 billion cubic meters of reserves) to eastern Ukraine. Because the Russians are not supplying sufficient pressure, Ukrainian efforts to simultaneously supply Eastern Ukraine out of reserves would result in the gas flowing backward into Russia. "Russia could pump through another connector, but chose not to in order to make it look like Ukraine does not want to pump gas to Europe," Kuberski said. "If Russia starts to pump through all five connectors, there will be no problem." YUSHCHENKO AGITATED, BUT WORKING WITH TYMOSHENKO ¶6. (C) Yushchenko was reportedly agitated during the meeting. He argued that EU support is the key to getting a fair agreement with Russia. "The EU cannot abandon Ukraine," Yushchenko repeatedly said. Jakubik said Yushchenko called Tymoshenko three times during the meeting. "There is no daylight between the two of them," Jakubik said. "They are speaking with one voice. Russia has not been successful in dividing them, but we do not expect this will last." The Ukrainian FM was also in the meeting. PRESIDENT AND GOVERNMENT "ON SAME PAGE" WARSAW 00000054 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) FM Sikorski participated at Kaczynski's request and, according to Jakubik, agreed with everything the President said. Sikorski reportedly called PM Tusk (or his advisors) several times during the meeting. "We have a common Polish position, which will help us persuade the EU," Kuberski said. FM Sikorski will continue consultations with Yushchenko and Tymoshenko (separate meetings) tomorrow in Kyiv. POLAND'S MESSAGE TO UKRAINE ¶8. (C) Kuberski said Kaczynski encouraged Yushchenko to take the necessary "technical gas" out of Ukrainian storage. "They can afford it. It will show their good will and reliability, and Russia will not be able to argue that Ukraine is stealing gas." He also said it would help if the U.S. would send the same message. He asserted that a clear, public message from the U.S. would also help convince other EU member states to support Ukraine. COMMENT ¶9. (C) Three more observations: First, all three Polish leaders (PM Tusk, President Kaczynski and FM Sikorski) are in Ukraine today to continue their dialogue about the gas crisis. Second, the fact that Yushchenko kept this long-planned appointment with Kaczynski in Poland says something about Ukrainian perceptions (real or imagined) of Polish influence within the the EU. Second, the fact that Kaczynski invited Sikorski to participate (the two rivals rarely appear together, let alone speak) is an indication of the importance the President places on this issue. While Sikorski and Kaczynski find common cause in their skepticism of Russian motives and their desire to further EU engagement, Kaczynski has vociferously taken Ukraine's side. Sikorski and PM Tusk have been more nuanced, criticizing Russia but stopping short of an outright defense of Ukraine. They have been careful throughout the crisis to call attention to Russia's actions, but have been careful not to get too far ahead of other EU member states. Kaczynski has common cause with Tusk's government on energy security, but differences in approach and tone remain and will likely resurface when the crisis passes. For that reason alone, today's three-headed polish delegation to Ukraine will be interesting to watch. ASHE