EURO ELECTIONS: POLES SEEK MORE OF A GOOD THING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000522 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE, EUR/ERA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN PL SUBJECT: EURO ELECTIONS: POLES SEEK MORE OF A GOOD THING REF: 5/22/09 WARSAW WEEKLY ECONOMIC NEWS Classified By: Political Counselor F. Daniel Sainz, Reason 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Poland's love affair with the European Union colors the message of its European Parliament (EP) candidates, who largely focus on maintaining EU largesse and maximizing Polish influence within the EU. The expected post-election consolidation of Polish deputies inside only three EP fractions (vice the current five) will concentrate their impact. In particular, the main ruling party, Civic Platform (PO),is likely to win almost half of Poland's 50 seats, making the Polish delegation the second or third largest within the European People's Party (EPP) fraction. Despite their appreciation for the EU, most Poles are not familiar with the finer points of EP workings and its growing importance, and turnout will be only around 20 percent. To spur interest, political parties highlight the simpler issues -- such as Polish PM Buzek's prospects for winning the EP Presidency -- and are offering as candidates the best, the brightest, and the sexiest. END SUMMARY. STAR POWER SEEKS TO TURN OUT THE VOTE ¶2. (U) Poland is one of the countries most enthusiastic about its membership in the EU, but turnout for the June 7 European Parliament (EP) elections is expected to be only around 20%. Political parties are trying to boost interest by fielding many candidates with rising stars, reversing the conventional wisdom that an EP seat is a form of political retirement. Heading their party lists in Warsaw are current European Commissioner Danuta Hubner (Civic Platform, PO) and two politicians in their mid-thirties: presidential aide Michal Kaminski (Law and Justice, PiS),and the photogenic Wojciech Olejniczak (Democratic Left Alliance, SLD). Olejniczak ran afoul of traditionalists with a photo spread in "Wprost" magazine that featured him in various stages of undress. GoP SETS RECOGNIZABLE GOALS, LIKE A POLISH EP PRESIDENT ¶3. (C) After only five years in the Union, Poles are not familiar with the issues facing Parliament, or how it works. Only 51% of one poll's respondents were aware they can select their Euro deputies; others thought the deputies are appointed by Poland's President or parliament. With Euro IQs so low, candidates often opt for simple slogans, and tout �A;their ability to bring home the EU bacon. The governing PO says it has improved relations with EU partners and won an easing of costly EU emissions ceilings. The opposition PiS's TV ads show Sarkozy and Merkel patting Prime Minister Tusk on the back (in seeming condescension),and suggest he does not forcefully defend Polish interests. PiS Euro deputy Adam Bielan told the Ambassador that Tusk has lobbied hardest for a goal most Poles will understand -- electing former PM Jerzy Buzek as EP President -- but Poland would gain more if Tusk focused on winning a key Commission position. MAINTAINING EU ASSISTANCE ¶4. (U) Polish experts on the EU hold out hopes that Poland will continue to be a leading beneficiary of EU largesse. Jacek Saryusz-Wolski (PO),the Chair of the EP Foreign Affairs committee, predicted that Poland will remain a net recipient of EU funds for at least one more seven-year budget cycle, which starts in 2013. Saryusz-Wolski also suggested that likely reforms of agricultural policies might change the ratio between direct agricultural payments and support for rural areas, but overall levels of support would continue undiminished. POLISH DEPUTIES TO CONSOLIDATE IN FEWER EP FRACTIONS ¶5. (C) The main government coalition party, the PO, will likely be the big winners on June 7, taking as many as half of Poland's 50 seats. They are expected to win the "beauty contest" based on domestic factors, but PO activists argue that a vote for their party is a vote for greater EU influence. The PO's Euro deputies, together with those of their Polish People's Party (PSL) coalition partners, will form the second or third largest national delegation within the European People's Party (EPP) fraction. A similar consolidation will take place among all Polish Euro deputies, who will likely take part in only three fractions (they are currently in five),thereby augmenting Polish influence within each group. Polish deputies' image will also get a boost from the likely removal of Polish extremists from the EP: the Self-Defense (SO) and League of Polish Families (LPR) parties will not surpass the threshold for parliamentary representation. WARSAW 00000522 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) The Euro-skeptic Polish branch of Libertas (which has formed an electoral coalition with LPR),also appears unlikely to win a seat, despite Lech Walesa's controversial appearances at their party meetings. Walesa may have hurt his own image without helping Libertas, since even his long-time supporters have criticized his role at these party gatherings. His own explanations have been inconsistent; he has maintained, variously, that he needed the honoraria to boost a meager presidential pension; that he came to Libertas gatherings to express his disagreement with the party; and that he will speak to anyone interested in his views about what is not working in the EU. Walesa has for some time threatened to leave the EU group of Wise Men because the majority of its members are from the political left and because the other Wise Men are only interested in small-scale reforms. UNIONS PROTEST LACK OF EU, GOP SUPPORT FOR SHIPYARDS ¶7. (SBU) While most campaign messages have been limited to generalities about Poland's role in the EU, trade unions have brought attention to EU and GoP policy toward Poland's ailing shipyards. On April 30, Solidarity-affiliated unions clashed with police outside a conference where EU Commission President Barroso and Prime Minister Tusk were commemorating the fifth anniversary of Poland's EU accession. The unions are protesting EU rulings that unauthorized GoP subsidies to Szczecin and Gdynia shipyards must be returned to the EU, and that the Gdansk shipyard must cut production. Solidarity threatened to disrupt Tusk's long-planned June 4 commemoration of the 20th anniversary of 1989 elections in front of the Gdansk shipyards if the PM did not meet with them. Some PO members have alleged the unions -- especially Solidarity, whose members largely share PiS views -- have political motivations, a charge Solidarity leaders deny. ¶8. (SBU) After initially insisting he would not be "blackmailed," Tusk unexpectedly changed tack on May 8, announcing he would move the June 4 celebrations to Krakow. He simultaneously challenged union leaders to a televised May 17 debate, which the larger unions, including Solidarity, backed out of. Although only two smaller unions took part in the debate, Tusk assured shipyard workers that the GoP would seek investors for the Szczecin and Gdynia shipyards and provide assistance to workers affected by the downsizing process in Gdansk. The next day, Tusk's Treasury Ministry announced an undisclosed investor had agreed to buy the Szczecin and Gdynia yards (Ref A). ASHE