EURO ELECTIONS: POLES SEEK MORE OF A GOOD THING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000522

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE, EUR/ERA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN PL
SUBJECT: EURO ELECTIONS: POLES SEEK MORE OF A GOOD THING

REF: 5/22/09 WARSAW WEEKLY ECONOMIC NEWS

Classified By: Political Counselor F. Daniel Sainz, Reason 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Poland's love affair with the European
Union colors the message of its European Parliament (EP)
candidates, who largely focus on maintaining EU largesse and
maximizing Polish influence within the EU. The expected
post-election consolidation of Polish deputies inside only
three EP fractions (vice the current five) will concentrate
their impact. In particular, the main ruling party, Civic
Platform (PO),is likely to win almost half of Poland's 50
seats, making the Polish delegation the second or third
largest within the European People's Party (EPP) fraction.
Despite their appreciation for the EU, most Poles are not
familiar with the finer points of EP workings and its growing
importance, and turnout will be only around 20 percent. To
spur interest, political parties highlight the simpler issues
-- such as Polish PM Buzek's prospects for winning the EP
Presidency -- and are offering as candidates the best, the
brightest, and the sexiest. END SUMMARY.

STAR POWER SEEKS TO TURN OUT THE VOTE


2. (U) Poland is one of the countries most enthusiastic
about its membership in the EU, but turnout for the June 7
European Parliament (EP) elections is expected to be only
around 20%. Political parties are trying to boost interest
by fielding many candidates with rising stars, reversing the
conventional wisdom that an EP seat is a form of political
retirement. Heading their party lists in Warsaw are current
European Commissioner Danuta Hubner (Civic Platform, PO) and
two politicians in their mid-thirties: presidential aide
Michal Kaminski (Law and Justice, PiS),and the photogenic
Wojciech Olejniczak (Democratic Left Alliance, SLD).
Olejniczak ran afoul of traditionalists with a photo spread
in "Wprost" magazine that featured him in various stages of
undress.

GoP SETS RECOGNIZABLE GOALS, LIKE A POLISH EP PRESIDENT


3. (C) After only five years in the Union, Poles are not
familiar with the issues facing Parliament, or how it works.
Only 51% of one poll's respondents were aware they can select
their Euro deputies; others thought the deputies are
appointed by Poland's President or parliament. With Euro IQs
so low, candidates often opt for simple slogans, and tout
their ability to bring home the EU bacon. The governing PO
says it has improved relations with EU partners and won an
easing of costly EU emissions ceilings. The opposition PiS's
TV ads show Sarkozy and Merkel patting Prime Minister Tusk on
the back (in seeming condescension),and suggest he does not
forcefully defend Polish interests. PiS Euro deputy Adam
Bielan told the Ambassador that Tusk has lobbied hardest for
a goal most Poles will understand -- electing former PM Jerzy
Buzek as EP President -- but Poland would gain more if Tusk
focused on winning a key Commission position.

MAINTAINING EU ASSISTANCE


4. (U) Polish experts on the EU hold out hopes that Poland
will continue to be a leading beneficiary of EU largesse.
Jacek Saryusz-Wolski (PO),the Chair of the EP Foreign
Affairs committee, predicted that Poland will remain a net
recipient of EU funds for at least one more seven-year budget
cycle, which starts in 2013. Saryusz-Wolski also suggested
that likely reforms of agricultural policies might change the
ratio between direct agricultural payments and support for
rural areas, but overall levels of support would continue
undiminished.

POLISH DEPUTIES TO CONSOLIDATE IN FEWER EP FRACTIONS


5. (C) The main government coalition party, the PO, will
likely be the big winners on June 7, taking as many as half
of Poland's 50 seats. They are expected to win the "beauty
contest" based on domestic factors, but PO activists argue
that a vote for their party is a vote for greater EU
influence. The PO's Euro deputies, together with those of
their Polish People's Party (PSL) coalition partners, will
form the second or third largest national delegation within
the European People's Party (EPP) fraction. A similar
consolidation will take place among all Polish Euro deputies,
who will likely take part in only three fractions (they are
currently in five),thereby augmenting Polish influence
within each group. Polish deputies' image will also get a
boost from the likely removal of Polish extremists from the
EP: the Self-Defense (SO) and League of Polish Families
(LPR) parties will not surpass the threshold for
parliamentary representation.


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6. (C) The Euro-skeptic Polish branch of Libertas (which
has formed an electoral coalition with LPR),also appears
unlikely to win a seat, despite Lech Walesa's controversial
appearances at their party meetings. Walesa may have hurt
his own image without helping Libertas, since even his
long-time supporters have criticized his role at these party
gatherings. His own explanations have been inconsistent; he
has maintained, variously, that he needed the honoraria to
boost a meager presidential pension; that he came to Libertas
gatherings to express his disagreement with the party; and
that he will speak to anyone interested in his views about
what is not working in the EU. Walesa has for some time
threatened to leave the EU group of Wise Men because the
majority of its members are from the political left and
because the other Wise Men are only interested in small-scale
reforms.

UNIONS PROTEST LACK OF EU, GOP SUPPORT FOR SHIPYARDS


7. (SBU) While most campaign messages have been limited to
generalities about Poland's role in the EU, trade unions have
brought attention to EU and GoP policy toward Poland's ailing
shipyards. On April 30, Solidarity-affiliated unions clashed
with police outside a conference where EU Commission
President Barroso and Prime Minister Tusk were commemorating
the fifth anniversary of Poland's EU accession. The unions
are protesting EU rulings that unauthorized GoP subsidies to
Szczecin and Gdynia shipyards must be returned to the EU, and
that the Gdansk shipyard must cut production. Solidarity
threatened to disrupt Tusk's long-planned June 4
commemoration of the 20th anniversary of 1989 elections in
front of the Gdansk shipyards if the PM did not meet with
them. Some PO members have alleged the unions -- especially
Solidarity, whose members largely share PiS views -- have
political motivations, a charge Solidarity leaders deny.


8. (SBU) After initially insisting he would not be
"blackmailed," Tusk unexpectedly changed tack on May 8,
announcing he would move the June 4 celebrations to Krakow.
He simultaneously challenged union leaders to a televised May
17 debate, which the larger unions, including Solidarity,
backed out of. Although only two smaller unions took part in
the debate, Tusk assured shipyard workers that the GoP would
seek investors for the Szczecin and Gdynia shipyards and
provide assistance to workers affected by the downsizing
process in Gdansk. The next day, Tusk's Treasury Ministry
announced an undisclosed investor had agreed to buy the
Szczecin and Gdynia yards (Ref A).
ASHE