POLISH FM SIKORSKI TO CODEL LEVIN: WE WANT "REAL"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000468

SIPDIS

EUR, PM, H

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR OREP RS PL
SUBJECT: POLISH FM SIKORSKI TO CODEL LEVIN: WE WANT "REAL"
PATRIOTS

REF: WARSAW 375

Classified By: Ambassador Ashe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Polish FM Sikorski told CODEL Levin that
Poland "would not suffer" but "would look silly" if the U.S.
decided not to pursue Missile Defense and is open to
alternatives that would ease Russian concerns. Sikorski
stressed that Poland's ultimate aim is to have an increased
U.S. and/or NATO presence in Poland to bolster Article 5
guarantees. Sikorski said the GOP welcomed President Obama's
April 5 pledge to uphold U.S. commitments on Patriots, but
emphasized that only a real battery would be taken as a sign
of U.S. military commitment. The presence of non-combat
personnel would not be sufficient from Poland's perspective.
Sikorski reiterated Poland's commitment to a limited victory
in Afghanistan, indicated his personal commitment to
squeezing more reconstruction assistance out of the EU, and
positively assessed the new U.S. Afghanistan/Pakistan
strategy. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Senator Carl Levin (D-MI),Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL),
and Senator Susan Collins (R-ME),met with Polish Foreign
Minister Radoslaw Sikorski April 16 to discuss Missile
Defense (MD),Polish interest in a U.S. Patriot battery, and
Afghanistan.

U.S. "ROCK SOLID" ON ARTICLE FIVE


3. (C) Senator Levin began by conveying the President's
message that the U.S. commitment to the NATO Article 5
guarantee is "rock solid." The U.S. appreciates Poland's
political investment in MD. While the U.S. might ultimately
decide not to pursue MD, either because of a Czech decision
not to host the MD RADAR facility, or for other reasons, the
U.S. remains committed to strengthening relations and
military cooperation with Poland. Even if cooperation takes
a different form than that envisioned in the Ballistic
Missile Defense Agreement or the accompanying political
declaration, the U.S. is committed to making the relationship
"stronger than ever."

POLAND "WILL NOT SUFFER" WITHOUT MD


4. (C) Asked whether MD or Patriots are more important for
Poland, Sikorski said Poland "would not suffer" but "would
look silly" if the U.S. decided not to pursue MD. He noted
that Poland agreed to host the MD site for the same reason it
deployed 18,000 troops to Iraq, even though Poland's national
security was not threatened by Iraq -- because Poland is a
loyal ally and friend of the United States. While Poland
agrees that Iran "wants the bomb," there is "less urgency"
from the GOP's perspective because Poland is not an Iranian
target. That said, Poland had paid a "significant price"
with EU members and with Russia for agreeing to MD. "We were
told the U.S. would persuade the Russians. It hasn't worked
out like that."


5. (C) Senator Nelson warned that if the Czechs reject the
proposed MD radar site, the Polish component of MD would be
put in jeopardy under current U.S. legislation. Sikorski
pointed out that the Czechs had postponed a vote on the RADAR
site, not rejected it outright, because they are not sure if
the U.S. still wants to pursue MD. Senator Nelson expressed
doubt that Iran would abandon its nuclear weapons or missile
programs, but noted that the Iranian threat to Europe could
be met for the foreseeable future with AEGIS and THAAD
systems.


6. (C) In the event the U.S. decides to withdraw from MD,
Nelson said, the U.S. could minimize the political fallout
for Poland by sticking to political declaration commitments,
increasing the U.S. military presence, and finding other ways
to help Poland improve interoperability with the U.S. and
other NATO allies. Sikorski said Poland was receptive to
alternate proposals, but added "you have to make up your own
mind."

U.S. FOOTPRINT KEY


7. (C) Sikorski stressed that Poland's ultimate aim is to
have an increased U.S. and/or NATO presence in Poland to
bolster Article 5 guarantees. "The U.S. has fewer troops in
Poland than it does in Georgia," he said. As a "border
state" with Russia, Poland feels less secure than other NATO
members. NATO infrastructure should be more spread out,
Sikorski argued, adding that Western European locations are
still "disproportionately favored" by the Alliance. From
this perspective, the U.S. "symbolic gesture" to move a

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Patriot battery to Poland would convince Poles that Article 5
is more than just a paper guarantee.

WHAT ABOUT RUSSIA?


8. (C) On the prospect of Russian participation in MD,
Sikorski said Poland would welcome any package that eases
Russian concerns. "We do not want to be the target of
Russian countermeasures." He noted that Poland had
voluntarily talked to the Russians about "invasive"
confidence-building measures that would be equivalent to
allowing Russian inspectors a permanent presence on Polish
soil. Sikorski opined that Russia would continue to "use its
own paranoia as a bargaining chip" with the United States.


9. (C) Sikorski said he had heard reports that President
Obama and Russian President Medvedev had agreed in London to
negotiate a secret "post-ABM" agreement. If that is the
case, Sikorski said, Poland would like to know more about it.
Stressing the importance of "Polish confidence" in the
U.S.-Russia dialogue process, Sikorski said Poland would
appreciate consultations in advance of any decision,
especially since Poland "had stuck its head out" for the U.S.

PATRIOTS


10. (C) Turning to Patriots, Sikorski said the GOP welcomed
President Obama's pledge -- in his April 5 meeting with
President Kaczynski and PM Tusk -- to fulfill commitments
outlined in the August 2008 political declaration. That
said, "we want a real battery, not a training one," Sikorski
said. He claimed U.S. negotiators had promised the GOP it
would transfer an actual battery stationed in Germany to
Poland. "Only a real battery will be taken as a sign of a
U.S. military commitment." When Senator Levin pointed out
that there would be a U.S. presence even if the Patriots are
used for training purposes, Sikorski replied that the
presence of non-combat personnel was "not sufficient."


11. (C) Asked whether Poland wanted an operational battery
because it would send a stronger signal to the Russians,
Sikorski claimed that the German-based battery Poland had
been promised, with the proviso that it would periodically be
transported to Israel for combat. "We want to be treated the
same as any other NATO member. We do not want second-class
status," Sikorski said. Sikorski said he had heard through
the grapevine that the U.S. was talking to Russia about
Patriots. "If true, this is worrisome. You should speak to
your ally about Patriots, not Russia," Sikorski said.

AFGHANISTAN


12. (C) Sikorski said Poland views the threat in Afghanistan
differently than Iraq. Because Afghanistan is a NATO
operation, the Alliance's credibility is at stake. Sikorski
noted that Poland was one of three NATO members that
responded to President Obama's request by increasing its
"investment" in Afghanistan. Poland will increase its troop
levels from 1600 to 2000 by the end of April and, by summer,
will identify 200 more to be dedicated as a Strategic Reserve
that will be prepared to move forward, as needed, during the
election period.


13. (C) Poland is working to convince Mongolia to contribute
an additional 200 troops to the Polish contingent, which
would mean Poland will be at brigade strength for the Afghan
elections. Sikorski said Poland is trying to convince its EU
partners of the need to "surge" on development assistance and
civil reconstruction. "We need to squeeze more resources out
of the EU," he said.


14. (C) Sikorski positively assessed the U.S. strategy to
deal jointly with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan needs
to be encouraged to take on extremists in the Tribal Areas.
Moreover, persuading India to deescalate its presence on the
border will allow Pakistan to divert forces to the Tribal
Areas.


15. (C) Sikorski expressed his conviction that victory --
defined in limited terms, i.e., creating stable conditions
that would let the Afghan Government take over -- is
possible. He cited improvements in security, including
decreasing levels of violence over the long term, but
reiterated the importance of defeating the Taliban in
Pakistan.


16. (U) CODEL Levin has cleared this message.

ASHE