BELARUSIAN VISA APPLICANTS SPEAK OUT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000428

SIPDIS

EUR/UMB FOR WANG

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019
TAGS: BY CVIS ECON PHUM PL PREL SOCI
SUBJECT: BELARUSIAN VISA APPLICANTS SPEAK OUT ON
MOTIVATIONS FOR IMMIGRATING TO THE U.S.

Classified By: DCM QUANRUD REASONS 1.5 (B AND D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) As the post responsible for processing IVs for
Belarusians, and one of the posts designated for Belarusian
NIV interviews, Embassy Warsaw regularly interacts with
Belarusians of all walks of life. We took the opportunity
to ask several Belarusian IV and NIV applicants about their
views on the Belarusian economic situation and their
motivations for immigrating to the United States. Over a
period of four months, we interviewed 10 Belarusian
immigrant and non-immigrant visa applicants from cities
throughout Belarus. Although this is not a scientific
survey of Belarusian attitudes towards the regime and its
policies, we believe that it provides an interesting
anecdotal snapshot of what the average Belarusian may think
-- at least among those who travel abroad or emigrate.
Despite the Lukashenko regime,s continued authoritarian
rule and the climate of fear that permeates Belarusian
society, all of the applicants immigrating were doing so
for economic not political reasons, citing growing economic
concerns and bleak prospects for the future. This cable
was cleared by Embassy Minsk. END SUMMARY.

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THE BELARUSIANS ARE COMING!
THE BELARUSIANS ARE COMING!
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2. (SBU) While the total number of Belarusian IV
applicants remains far below the number for Poles and
Ukrainians in Warsaw, the number of IVs issued
to Belarusians has steadily risen from 582 in FY06
to 639 in FY07 to 796 in FY08. Belarusian applicants
tend to be highly educated and gainfully employed and do
not appear to be a high fraud risk.

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CONCERNS ABOUT THE ECONOMIC SITUATION RISING
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3. (SBU) All of the applicants interviewed expressed
concerns over the worsening economic situation in Belarus,
with the Diversity Visa applicants citing economic fears
and poor prospects in the future as their primary reasons
for immigrating. A lawyer from Minsk lamented that his
salary was cut 20 percent overnight following the
Belarusian ruble,s sudden 20 percent devaluation in January

2009. Two married doctors from Molodechno noted that
the city,s economic situation has become very unstable and
fear a return to the era of Soviet-era breadlines. A
self-employed salesperson of construction materials in
Minsk complained that the economic slowdown has halted
Minsk,s construction boom, which has led to a sharp decline
in sales and profit. A bus driver from Lida noted that
following the government,s announcement to devalue the
Belarusian ruble, locals rushed to the local banks to
withdraw all of their savings. He added that people no
longer trust Belarusian banks. (Note: Other applicants
interviewed reported similar incidents occurring in their
cities. End Note.)


4. (SBU) Two managers of a private chain store in Minsk
that sells imported photo equipment, who applied for
non-immigrant visas, told us that the current economic
crisis has led to a sharp rise in prices for food and
household equipment. They said they were
forced to raise their prices by 15 percent in order to
cover the increasing cost of importing their products.
Several applicants also noted that, unlike in the West
where prices have dropped, prices for many items (such as
foodstuffs) remain the same or have increased.

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STATE PROPAGANDA BACKFIRING
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5. (SBU) In addition to their fears about the economic
situation, all of the applicants expressed anger with the
government,s efforts to cover up the truth about Belarus,
economic problems with false propaganda. Most applicants
accused Lukashenko and state media of ignoring reality and
outright lying to the public in order to portray Belarus as
a country untouched by the global economic crisis. All of
the applicants pointed to Lukashenko,s decision to devalue

WARSAW 00000428 002 OF 002


the Belarusian Ruble by 20 percent overnight, despite his
promises that no such devaluation would occur, as a perfect
example. The Lida bus driver said that people no longer
trust the president after the Belarusian Ruble to dollar
exchange rate suddenly worsened, despite his promises that
no such devaluation would occur. A fireman from
Novopolotsk said that while government statements about pay
raises were true, there was little mention in
state-controlled media about the rise in prices, taxes and
general expenditures which are much higher than people,s
new income.


6. (SBU) Several applicants also pointed out that many of
Belarus, main state enterprises, including the MAZ tractor
plant, have been severely impacted by recent events despite
the Lukashenko regime,s repeated assertions that Belarus,
industry will not be affected by the crisis. The
applicants reported that slumping sales and rising
production costs have forced these industries to cut shifts
and force their workers to take unpaid leave.

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CLIMATE OF FEAR/OPPOSITION INEFFECTIVENESS CONTINUES
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7. (C) While all of those interviewed said that
socioeconomic reasons motivated their immigration to the
U.S., the applicants also expressed their concerns with the
continuing climate of fear existing in Belarus today. Many
of the applicants said that everyone they knew was afraid
to speak out about the situation. One applicant, a student
at the prestigious Presidential Management Academy in Minsk
(which is affiliated with the Presidential Administration),
told Conoff that given the ongoing diplomatic standoff
between Minsk and Washington, she was too afraid to tell
any of her friends or students about her plans to immigrate
to the United States.


8. (C) Particularly noteworthy during the interviews was
the complete lack of commentary about the opposition, or
their efforts to mount any organized response to the
Lukashenko regime,s handling of the economic crisis
(including the recent March 25 opposition demonstration in
Minsk). When we asked one applicant about his views
about the opposition, the applicant merely waived his hand
with a disgusted look on his face. When asked how the
situation could change for the better in Belarus, nobody
could come up with a specific suggestion other than "things
need to change."

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Despite the Lukashenko regime,s efforts to assuage
concerns that Belarus is a prosperous authoritarian island
in a sea of capitalist ruin, it is obvious that at least
some Belarusians are no longer buying the party line. In
fact, many who visited Embassy Warsaw are angry that the
government spends its energies promoting a "Potemkin
Village" portrayal of Belarus rather than addressing the
population,s concerns. Despite the gloomy picture and lack
of prospects for their future, none of the applicants could
point to a viable alternative to Lukashenko who could fix
the economy or improve the political situation. The lack
of any mention or support of opposition efforts to resolve
the economic crisis hints at the democratic opposition,s
continued inability to build its support base among the
general population. Should Belarus, economic woes worsen,
we could possibly see an even greater increase in
Belarusian immigrant applicants as more and more try to get
out when given the chance. END COMMENT.

ASHE