POLES FACE EC DELAY, DIVISION ON EASTERN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000389

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2019
TAGS: PREL PL GG AJ AM UP BO
SUBJECT: POLES FACE EC DELAY, DIVISION ON EASTERN
PARTNERSHIP

Classified By: CDA QUANRUD FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. We reviewed developments in Poland's Eastern
neighborhood in separate meetings with Witold Sobkow, MFA
Acting Political Director, and Jacek Cichocki, Secretary of
State in the Polish Prime Minister's Chancellery. They noted
that:

-- The EU is still divided on the issue of inviting
Lukashenka to the May 7 launch of the Eastern Partnership
Initiative. A compromise may emerge to invite Lukashenka...
somewhere else in Europe on May 7 to help him save face;

-- there is a growing worry that Nagorno-Karabakh will erupt
as the next flash point in the Caucasus if Azerbaijan were
sufficiently provoked;

-- Prime Minister Tusk has lost faith in Georgian President
Saakashvili, who the Poles believe is losing touch with
reality; and

-- the Tusk Government has so far failed to refocus bickering
Ukrainian politicians on fixing the economy and resuming NATO
accession efforts. END SUMMARY.


EUROPEAN COMMISSION STALLED ON EASTERN
PARTNERSHIP... AND EVERYTHING ELSE
--------------


2. (C) Sobkow said the European Council Summit's approval
of EUR 600 million in Eastern Partnership (EP) funding became
possible once the Poles convinced Spanish FM Moratinos that
the funding would not take away from EU monies for the
Mediterranean. Poland showed that the allotments would
comply with the agreed 69/31 split for South/East projects.
This is not new money, but a reprogramming of funds from
European Neighborhood bilateral projects into the EP
multilateral projects.


3. (C) We noted that the Secretary had discussed with
Foreign Minister Sikorski coordination with the EU's Eastern
Partnership (EP),and asked how this might manifest itself.
Sobkow welcomed the interest in coordination, but said the
program is now in the European Commission's hands. The
Commission is working out technical guidelines on cooperation
with third countries, he said, and it is too early to consult
about actual programs. Sobkow said Commissioners are all
focused on the upcoming elections, and would "do nothing" --
on the EP or anything else -- until the fall. Moreover, the
ongoing crises in almost all of the EP countries gave the
Commission an excuse to "wait and see" what develops.

BELARUS: SHOW LUKASHENKA AN OUTSTRETCHED HAND?
-------------- --


4. (C) Sobkow said the EU is completely divided on whether
to invite Lukashenka to the May 7 launching of the EP.
Holland is against, Italy in favor; France wants to invite
Lukashenka, but not shake his hand. Lukashenka has
reportedly urged the EU to invite him but promised not to
attend. Sobkow said the EU hoped to reach a compromise by
the Luxembourg GAERC meeting April 27-28, perhaps offering
Lukashenka a meeting in another venue while the EP launching
ceremony takes place. Cichockci, from the Prime Minister's
Chancellery, said the U.S. and Europe need a common policy
toward Belarus, so Lukashenka cannot pit allies against each
other.

AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA: THE NEXT FLASH POINT?
--------------


5. (C) Cichocki warned there was a 10-15 percent chance that
the Nagorno-Karabakh situation could significantly
deteriorate. He said "certain parties" -- a probable
reference to Russia -- might try to provoke Azerbaijan into
an open conflict with Armenia. Given the occasional exchange
of fire, Azerbaijan would be easy to provoke. Cichocki
argued that Baku is accumulating weapons and that President
Aliyev felt increasingly vulnerable to criticism of his
inability to resolve the frozen conflict. Cichocki said
Armenia was leaning towards the West, but there were some
individuals who would do anything to gain power, which could
destabilize the region.

WARSAW 00000389 002 OF 002



GEORGIA: LOST FAITH IN SAAKASHVILI
--------------


6. (C) Echoing the sentiment of Polish FM Radoslaw Sikorski,
Cichocki bluntly declared that Prime Minister Tusk had lost
faith in Georgian President Saakashvili. According to
Cichocki, Saakasvili has lost touch with reality and his
actions in August undermined years of work to resolve the
frozen conflicts in that country. Cichocki argued that the
EP would probably fail to push Saakashvili -- who Cichocki
claimed only cared about power and money -- in the right
direction.

UKRAINE: DISTRACTED BY INTERNAL BICKERING
--------------


7. (C) Cichocki told us that Tusk maintained good relations
with Ukrainian Prime Minister Tymoshenko, but she and other
Ukrainian politicians were completely distracted by internal
political bickering. Tusk and his cabinet are actively
trying to refocus Ukrainians on important issues like the
financial crisis and preparations for NATO membership, but to
no avail. Cichocki expressed hope that the upcoming
elections in Ukraine would put an end to internal disputes
(and the "endless electioneering"),but he feared that the
population was fatigued with the political system and might
not participate vigorously in the electoral process.
QUANRUD