DISAFFECTED CIVIC PLATFORM LEADERS SPEAK OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000385

SIPDIS

AMCONSUL KRAKOW SENDS
STATE FOR EUR/CE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: DISAFFECTED CIVIC PLATFORM LEADERS SPEAK OUT

Classified By: Krakow Consul General Anne Hall for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Poland's ruling political party Civic
Platform (PO) has lost the drive for change that brought it
to power and has become increasingly focused on political
goals (namely, capturing the Presidency for Tusk),at least
according to two Krakow-based PO EU Parliamentarians who
found themselves in the cold when PO's European Parliamentary
election list was announced. These same politicians predict
an overall PO win in the Brussels race -- but at a
lower-than-expected margin -- and a changed party by the 2010
presidential and self-government elections. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Krakow Pol-EconOff and Pol-Econ Specialist met April 8
and 9 with PO Malopolska Deputy Party Chair and MEP Urszula
Gacek and PO MEP Boguslaw Sonik. Gacek decided not to run
after being offered a relatively low position on PO's Krakow
list and Sonik is starting from a number three position
despite high expectations of leading the list and rumors of
threats to join the rival Law and Justice Party (PiS).

Parachute Candidates and Party Politics
--------------


3. (C) Both Gacek and Sonik expressed dismay at PM Tusk's
decision to insert big-name "parachute" candidates as list
leaders for the June 7 European Parliamentary elections
instead of honoring local party selection procedures, citing
as prime examples Roza Thun in Krakow and Marian Krzaklewski
in Podkarpackie as well as Danuta Hubner in Warsaw and Lena
Kolarska-Bobinska in Lublin. While it is generally accepted
that PO needs a "locomotive" to beat PiS's highly popular
candidate former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro in Krakow,
Sonik commented that Thun is instead a car that needs to be
pulled. (Comment: While Thun is well-known within Krakow
elite social circles, she is seen as a Warsaw candidate who
lacks popular support. However, she does contribute to the
wide net PO is seeking to cast to attract voters on both the
left and the right. End Comment).


4. (C) Gacek opined that both PO and PiS are treating the EU
Parliamentary elections as a mega opinion poll prior to the
2010 Presidential election. Gacek and Sonik agreed that
there is no room for dissent at the regional level and that
substantive initiatives are on the sidelines as money is
spent on preparing for the national campaign. Asked why
local Podkarpackie party members initially harshly critical
of Tusk's selection of the right-wing values-oriented former
Solidarity leader Marian Krzaklewski appear now to have
acquiesced, Sonik said that the local party apparatus simply
has no choice these days but to go along or be left in the
cold. (Comment: Opposition to Krzaklewski's autocratic
control of Solidarity under the Buzek government in the late
1990s is, ironically, what contributed to PO's formation.
This same approach is what some lower-ranking PO members now
resent in Tusk's management of PO. End Comment.)

Predictions: PO Win, but Barely and at What Cost?
-------------- --------------


5. (C) While PO currently leads PiS in national opinion polls
by approximately 50 to 25 percent, Gacek and Sonik noted that
the margin between PO and PiS will be smaller than polls
suggest, especially when taking into account the predicted
low turnout (21 percent in 2004) as well as the more
disciplined and Euroskeptic PiS electorate. Polish seats in
the European Parliament will already be reduced from 54 to
50, resulting in the loss of at least one seat for the
Malopolska-Swietokrzyskie region Sonik is running from.
Neither Gacek nor Sonik judge that parties outside the four
main parties (PO, PiS, Democratic Left Alliance, and Polish
People's Party) will meet with success. Both, though, believe
former PO politician Pawel Piskorski's Democratic Party (SD)
is worth keeping an eye on as more and more voters are
looking for a center-based alternative to a PO party that is
moving to the right on social issues. Piskorski himself is
energized by his personal crusade against Tusk.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) While both Gacek and Sonik have much to be bitter
about, their characterization of PO as a party that has lost
the momentum for change which inspired voters in 2007 has
been echoed by politicians and businessmen from Silesia to
Podkarpackie in recent months. Frustrated politicians and
business leaders have told ConGen that PO has failed to
implement the bold initiatives it promised. While
interlocutors tend to laud PO for improving the tone of

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political discourse, they lament that more has not been done
to improve Poland's infrastructure and health care system,
etc. Interestingly, some PO members accuse PO of fulfilling
PiS's characterization of the party as having subordinated
commitment to reform to achieving short-term political goals.
Indications are that PM Tusk's presidential ambitions have
driven his thinking in forming the PO EU Parliament list.
His willingness to sacrifice stalwart party members -- and
key 2007 campaign promises -- to his political quest could
produce a very different party ahead of the 2010 national
elections.

HALL
QUANRUD