SCENESETTER FOR CODEL ROGERS VISIT TO WARSAW,

UNCLAS E F T O SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000351

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS TO H FOR CONGRESSMAN MIKE ROGERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR OREP ENRG MARR RS PL
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL ROGERS VISIT TO WARSAW,
APRIL 5-7, 2009

Classified By: DCM Quanrud by reason 1.4 (b, d)


1. (SBU) Mission Poland warmly welcomes your upcoming visit
to Warsaw. Your meetings will occur one day after President
Obama meets with the Polish leadership on the margins of the
U.S.-EU Summit in Prague, which will likely be with both
Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Lech Kaczynski. The
two leaders are putting aside a long-standing rivalry to hold
what will be their first joint meeting with a foreign head of
state. Though rivals, together they have a good story to
tell: Poland is time-tested ally of America and has stood
with our soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan, supported our
efforts in the Former Soviet space, and shares our faith in
freedom and democracy. Prime Minister Tusk's government has
welcomed President Obama's new emphasis on soft power and
outreach to rivals. President Kaczynski is less
enthusiastic, but is nevertheless an ardent fan of America.
However, in the midst of an otherwise solid bilateral
relationship, Poland's ongoing exclusion from the Visa Waiver
Program grates badly, and resentment among the population is
steadily eroding our popularity here.


2. (SBU) The fate of Missile Defense is first and foremost on
the minds of Poland's government and public. Last August,
Prime Minister Tusk agreed to locate U.S. missile
interceptors in Poland under the auspices of a Ballistic
Missile Defense Agreement (BMDA). He did so largely to
accommodate a direct request from us, their longtime ally.
The Poles now patiently await our decision on the future of
European Missile Defense. At the same time they are pressing
ahead for implementation of our bilateral Strategic
Declaration of Cooperation, issued side-by-side with BMDA
last summer. The Declaration operates separately from the
BMDA and promises U.S. defense modernization aid, a
high-level Strategic Dialogue and a Patriot battery rotation
starting in 2009 (contingent on ratification of a
Supplemental Status of Forces Agreement). The Patriot
rotation puts U.S. boots on Polish soil, something Poles
think will inherently improve their security situation. The
Strategic Dialogue is also important to many here who suspect
Eastern Europe has fallen off the U.S. radar.


3. (SBU) The Polish Government is being assiduously patient
on Missile Defense. It does so in the face of prevalent
public concern that Washington might sacrifice Missile
Defense on the altar of improved relations with Moscow. For
deep-seeded historical reasons, Russian posturing on Missile
Defense carries much greater weight in Poland than concerns
about the Iranian nuclear threat. If the U.S. decides not to
pursue Missile Defense, Poles will be disappointed if it
appears the decision was made either over their heads or at
Russia's behest. President Kaczynski has warned publicly that
a U.S. decision not to pursue Missile Defense, if taken to
satisfy Russia, would negatively impact bilateral relations.


4. (SBU) On Russia in general, the current government has
taken a less-confrontational, more-constructive tack,
recognizing the need for dialogue with Russia, not just to
advance common interests, but also to work through difficult
issues. This doesn't mean Russia gets a pass, however --
Warsaw will be the first to insist that the EU and NATO press
Moscow to play by the rules. The Poles also favor a EUR 600
million Polish-Swedish Eastern Partnership initiative, which
seeks to draw countries on Europe's eastern border,
especially Ukraine and Georgia, closer to Western
institutions. By offering former Soviet republics the
prospect of free trade and visa-free travel to the EU, the
Eastern Partnership aims to spur reforms needed for eventual
EU membership and to bolster their independence.


5. (SBU) Given its historically tense relations with
Russia, Poland views regional energy dependence on Russian
resources as a threat to its sovereignty and to European
integration. Unlike many of its neighbors, Poland's reliance
on coal somewhat insulates it from the use of energy as an
economic weapon. Poland still feels squeezed, however, by
dependence on imported Russian gas and by emissions
constraints that favor imported gas over domestic coal. The
current government is looking to nuclear power,
diversification of gas supplies, and European integration as
solutions, and seeks stronger EU solidarity on energy
security.


6. (SBU) Prime Minister Tusk's strong polling numbers
(holding above 50 percent) after 16 months in office are
virtually unprecedented in post-Communist Polish history. He
faces no viable challenge from the opposition, since the left
is divided and the main center-right opposition party, Law
and Justice (PiS),is widely faulted for harsh tactics and an

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overly skeptical view of the EU, which has benefited Poland
greatly. In contrast to the previous government, Prime
Minister Tusk has made mending fences with the EU (especially
Germany) a priority. This marks an important shift. His
government is overtly more attuned to the EU than to the
United States, in part because Poland receives significant
inflows of funds from the EU, and because younger Poles are
less attached to the United States than their forbears.


7. (SBU) Poles are concerned that their contributions in Iraq
(2003-2008) and Afghanistan (ongoing) are under-appreciated,
but they continue to be solid allies of American. Although
defense spending has been cut because of financial
crisis-related shortfalls in tax revenues, Poland's
commitment to Afghanistan remains steady. Poland currently
has 1600 soldiers in Afghanistan and recently assumed sole
military responsibility for Ghazni province. A further
plus-up of 400 troops is coming. On the downside, Poland
remains uncertain about how it will manage the civilian
aspects of its Afghan deployment in Ghazni.


8. (SBU) Poland's financial system has survived the global
crisis relatively unscathed, but it suffers from weakness in
its European trade and investment partners. Poland will see
some growth this year, albeit barely in the positive range,
and with rising unemployment. The government is not pursuing
significant economic stimulus, but is working to draw on EU
funds that were part of Poland's accession process, at a rate
of roughly EUR 10 billion/year for 7 years. They believe
that fiscal prudence is shielding Poland from the financial
market downturn, and are in tune with other U.S. goals for
the London Summit like restraining protectionism, increasing
the IMF's resources, and revisiting euro adoption procedures.
ASHE